“Only we are Earthseed. And the destiny of Earthseed is to take root among the stars.” —Octavia Butler (tweets don't reflect employer policy)
Jasoom
Joined October 2009
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Maybe space resources can help Earth survive. But, like the Polynesians who settled the Pacific, that's really not the primary reason humanity wishes to explore & settle this new ocean, the depths of space. (Quote below is from Christina Thompson's excellent book Sea People.)
Robotbeat🗽 ➐ retweeted
Once again, I live in Ukraine, and I have never met a soldier or a civilian who is fighting for Zelenskyy.
Ukrainians resist because our country was invaded, because russian occupation means kidnapped children, executed civilians, torture chambers, mass graves, rape, and looting. Our soldiers defend their families, their culture, their civilians, and their future, not the president.
Robotbeat🗽 ➐ retweeted
Since I'm now blocked by bluey from replying to this thread, I answer here by quote tweet
the openAI construction has more to do with convex integration than anything else.
In convex integration, the oscillations are typically built by hand and the iteration procedure creates wild weak solutions. The non-uniqueness construction of Albritton–Brué–Colombo used an unstable vortex to split solutions apart. The Córdoba–Martínez-Zoroa singularities amplify vorticity across scales by strain. In the openAI paper, a fluid instability is clever made so that the flow itself generates the oscillations: they grow by drawing energy from the background shear. The Reynolds stress then becomes the force that creates the collapsing smooth vortex. Using a physical instability to create the stress in this way has no precedent, and it is what produces a smooth force rather than a merely rough one.
Some on these ideas are in the literature (e.g. Leibovich-Stewartson 1983) but the way they are combined is definitely insane and definitely nowhere in the literature previously.
I also don't know of anyone suggesting that convex integration would play a role in the creation of a blow-up solution like this.
On a technical level, the paper is unbelievable, maybe beyond what a human could have come up with but not beyond human understanding: there are several different groups of pde experts working on understanding it who say that they more or less understand now. I expect digestions soon
td;lr: anyone saying that this OAI result is unsurprising is bullshitting
sorry!
Or it’s reasonable. Especially considering what the models were trained on, and that they spent $15M in compute instead and of $15M in consulting fees for specialist mathematicians to just do research (no teaching no service).
I don’t know why mathematicians want to pretend that no relevant progress was made before OAI released their solution.
Well this would be good I think. Netanyahu was corrupt
BREAKING: Former IDF chief Gadi Eizenkot projected to become Israeli Prime Minister after Tuesday’s election, replacing Netanyahu.
52% chance.
🔗 polymarket.com/r/IsraelPM
Robotbeat🗽 ➐ retweeted
An "extended mission kit" would be a good idea for ULA. For a lot of reasons, there will certainly be more users interested in a stretched Centaur than just what we will require for SLS and Moon Base.
As for all the EUS love, it's kind of wild to see the goalposts move for people who love the SLS rocket and our space program. We are adding an Artemis mission that didn't exist in 2027, working a path to finally get Orion to LLO, improving affordability and pace of launch readiness, giving ourselves a better shot at returning to the Moon before the Chinese, and rebuilding the workforce and building hardware again to own our outcomes.
No one in NASA's civil servant leadership saw a credible path to developing EUS and ML-2 in parallel, spending billions more than the Centaur pivot, and launching that configuration in time to meet our objectives. We have a more achievable path now.
There will always be reasons to defend the architecture of yesterday, which is part of why we have the rocket we have today and its challenges. But let's put aside the politics and emotion, because at some point the engineering, economics, and schedule have to matter more, and let's just finally go back to the Moon, people.
This is literally true. Even like a year or two ago, a lot of progressive people were just calling Starlink sky pollution with no redeeming value.
Robotbeat🗽 ➐ retweeted
@SpaceX Super Heavy Booster 22 static fire. 🔊 🚀🇺🇸
A few months ago, I used my picosecond laser to cut a sapphire wafer. The thing can cut literally everything, including sapphire or carbon nanotubes or graphene or Diamond.
Well he’s right, but it doesn’t matter because gas prices rule everything.
I have definitely changed my political opinions.
The older you get the more you realize that politics are psychology: the vast majority of people believe what they do as an extension of their ingrained personalities.
They don’t reason from first principles, or adjust policy based on data: they’re woke lefties or tradcons or AI doomers or accelerationists because the political shoe fits the mental foot. Few ever change sides, and if so only after contact with the results of their politics (and usually not even then).
Because to do so wouldn’t be updating an opinion, but changing their entire self, and nobody intentionally casts themselves into that confusing abyss.
SpaceX might need to develop an internal security capacity to deal with such threats, under guidance by the State Department.
This is indeed one of the main reasons that Starlink must remain a civilian operation.
It can be used for infrastructure that is military, but it cannot be used for unequivocally offensive strikes that make it fair game to be struck back.
An adversary blowing up Starlink satellites would create a domino effect of destruction that would generate a vast field of debris making space unusable.
Robotbeat🗽 ➐ retweeted
It's a huge misunderstanding of betting markets to think they'll be "humiliated" if an event to which they assign 35% probability happens.
If you roll a 1 or 2 on a dice, the dice is not humiliated because "Numbers that small only come up a third of the time".
I have several mutuals who have bet literally thousands of dollars (possibly tens of thousands at this point) on Paxton winning.
The idea that someone like Talarico, who believes White skin is a virus and that we should govern the country like a big kindergarten class, could win a Senate race in Texas just seems totally unbelievable.
And yet, the betting markets give him an overwhelming advantage and he has led or tied in every single poll since the end of the summer, bar one.
Someone is wrong here. Either the market participants and pollsters are about to be humiliated, or our political landscape is going to be shattered in a way that few people are prepared for.
Robotbeat🗽 ➐ retweeted
Zelenskyy is a Russian-speaking centrist who campaigned on a platform of normalizing relations with Russia. Putin declared war anyway because he thinks Ukraine is a fake and gay country that shouldn't exist. Somehow this makes Zelenskyy the fascist.
Seriously impressed by how Trump's appointed judges have worked. This has legitimately affected my opinions on conservative jurisprudence (to the positive). Gorsuch in particular. The absolute GOAT when it comes to rights for American Indian nations.
