Actionable investment ideas at the https://xitter.cf/t.co/neffEMdrR9
Great State of Texas
Joined June 2018
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Brazil smoked after Lula's surprise win in the Presidential run-off against Bolsonaro ... socialism is bad for your financial health
No matter how hard they try, these tech nerds will never be relatable to the average person
Jimmy Fallon asks Sam Altman if he uses ChatGPT to raise the baby he has with his husband, and his answer is hilarious
Jimmy Fallon: “You, you and your husband just had a baby. Congratulations, yeah. How old? How old is the baby?”
Sam Altman: “Eight month old?”
Jimmy Fallon: “Are you loving him?”
Sam Altman: “So much. I have no non-cliched thing to say, but it is by far so much better than anything anyone tells you. I just so incredibly happy.”
Jimmy Fallon: “And do you use ChatGPT when, when raising your baby?”
Sam Altman: “I do. I mean I feel kind of bad about it because I, we have this like genius level at everything, intelligence sitting there like waiting to unravel the mysteries of humanity.”
“And I'm like, why my kid stop dropping his pizza on the floor and laughing?”
“So I feel like I'm not asking a good enough question.”
“But it is, I don't know. I cannot imagine having gone through like figuring out how to raise a newborn without ChatGPT. Clearly people did it for a long time, no problem.”
Amazon withdraws plans for four data centers on the 122-acre former GWU Ashburn campus in Loudoun County after buying it for ~$427M
#MacroEdge
Ross Hendricks retweeted
Junk stocks just beat quality stocks by the widest margin on record. And that is now reversing.
Investors had better know what that means. 👇
From November 2023 through June 2026, a portfolio that owned the highest-quality U.S. businesses and sold short the lowest-quality ones lost 36%. That is the worst drawdown since AQR's record begins in 1957 (AQR data).
Why does this matter?
Quality earns a persistent premium because the market underprices it. In Asness, Frazzini and Pedersen's research, a one-standard-deviation rise in quality lifts a stock's price-to-book by only 22%. Since 1957, quality has beaten junk by about 3.6% a year.
The quality-minus-junk spread is an objective test of whether the market is behaving rationally.
When quality wins, high prices can still be rational. When junk wins at record highs, investors have lost their discipline.
From 1996 through 1998, quality beat junk by 33% while stocks soared: expensive but rational.
From January 1999 to February 2000, junk won by 12%. Over the next two years, quality beat junk by 68% while the market fell 24%.
The 2020–21 mania followed the same pattern. Junk beat quality by 19% from December 2019 through January 2021. Over the next two years, quality won by 41%.
Today's junk run is bigger than both.
It is three times the 1999 episode and nearly twice the 2020 one. The 12 months ending May 2026 were the worst on record for quality.
Goldman's basket of money-losing tech stocks was up 57% by June 1. That's the definition of market excess / delusion. Other signs: the Shiller CAPE ratio is 40.7, a level exceeded only in 1999 and 2000.
But, there's a reckoning happening right now.
In July 2026, quality beat junk by 14.3%, its largest monthly gain since 1957.
The next two largest win months for quality were November 2000 and October 2008.
The Fed raised rates on September 16 for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield closed above 5%, its highest since 2007. Stocks are expensive, and by this test the market has been irrational since late 2023.
Hell is coming.
Stocks and precious metals crashing, oil spiking and yet bonds rallying … this is about as risk off as you can get
$aapl is cooked
Iphone Duo is half baked. Read this review before ordering. The initial enthusiasm on the neat opening Duo animation has faded. Hard.
It may all but disappear after the first wave of Apple fan early adopters.
This is a VERY bad iPhone experience. Most people should probably just buy an iPad Mini and hotspot it.
In other words, the implied security blanket America supposedly provided for Gulf Allies - the very underpinning of the Petrodollar - is officially dead
Got gold?
MASSIVE potential implications for macro. Big non-sequitur for many narratives.
“In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists.” -Eric Hoffer
via @hummusboi17
"If you find yourself in a deep hole, keep digging"
Art of the Don
*gasp*
“a short but intensive operation … [to target] Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. Some officials say one more big round of attacks could push Iran’s economy over the brink and force the country to make diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict”
Ross Hendricks retweeted
The biggest issue in the equity markets today is whether the huge capital investments being made in the A.I. buildout will end up being worth their cost of capital.
Fortunately for investors, the best tech investor of all time (Jeff Bezos) gave us a simple guide to derive the answer.
If you're tech investor, this is a must-read 👇
@Ross__Hendricks @gnoble79 @GeorgeGammon @APompliano @SantiagoAuFund @RudyHavenstein @DavidBCollum @elonmusk @MebFaber @LukeGromen @dferris1961 @WallStreetMav
Holy smokes - NextDC
From Bloomberg:
Nextdc Ltd.’s shares plummeted after the data center operator said it was considering force majeure options and cut earnings guidance as community opposition delayed one of its major projects in Melbourne.
The Australian firm revised its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the current fiscal year through June 2027 to between A$245 million ($172 million) and A$265 million, down from A$385 million to A$410 million, in a statement Wednesday.
I wonder what the magic level is on $NVDA CDS until it can no longer bailout and backstop the AI supply chain... guess we're gonna find out
Amount of hate I’m seeing on the timeline for $nflx means it’s probably a buy
