SMASH-BROTHERS

On XLayer, TapeoutX, a Tapeout meme coin, holds a $10M market cap, while $BEM, Tapeout's own token, sits below $7M. I'm not saying $BEM's potential is limited to $10M, but it's an interesting comparison. Either way, Tapeout's development speed is absolutely insane. @TapeOutWorld

This is probably a controversial take but I think we won't see a pure meme above 1 billion market cap this cycle. The reason for that is that the market has matured and evolved. Trading memes has become a hyper optimized game that is just a wealth transfer from new participants to those who have the right tools. Last cycle a normie could buy a viral tiktok meme, log off and hope for the best. This cycle we have a dozen launchpads on a dozen chains with a dozen launch settings. It is near impossible for a normie to navigate through all of this. Even if they managed to do so, there is a 90% chance another token with a slight difference tries to vamp. This isn't only bad for normies but also for the whole ecosystem. The liquidity is spread among 5 different tokens on the same narratives. A coin that would've went to 5 million now now splits that capital between 10 different coins that all top at 1 million. People would rather take a shot at a 10x on a vamp than ride the original to a billion. This mindset forces all other participants to adapt or die. Above a certain market cap there is no marginal buyer left for a coin with no fundamental value anymore. Degens already bought. Funds can't underwrite it. And whoever is still on the sidelines has 50 other coins competing for the capital. Going forward I think the only tokens that can reach a billion are tech coins. Real innovation in AI or tech, plus a value accrual mechanism that creates an outside bid. Something buying the token that isn't just the next degen. That outside bid is the key part. Revenue funded buybacks, burns tied to usage, a reserve that grows with volume. A buyer that shows up whether sentiment is good or bad. Pure memes don't have that. AI is 100x more efficient than last cycle. I'm sure we will see a lot of innovation happening through crypto rails this cycle. RWA paired memes sit somewhere in between. They have meme distribution and community with a real asset or a real narrative beneath them. The question here is whether that middle ground is enough to break through the ceiling pure memes keep hitting. I think it can be. The attention engine of a meme plus a reason to hold beyond attention is a combination we haven't seen run at scale yet. In practice this means the ceilings on pure memes are lower than people price in. Take profits earlier on runners. Spend more time looking for coins with an outside bid. Pure memes won't be the runners of this cycle.

なお、アルト局面が来たときにトレンド的に順当に伸びそうなのは基本robinhood（及びsolana）。要は以下。 $AI $PONS $STONK 他に爆発する銘柄もあるだろうが、読み切るのは難しい。（超暴騰と超暴落の繰り返しでリスク高） 強豪アルトの反応は未知数だが $ETH $LTC $AVAX $UNI が強そう。