@SPXVIX

I price where options are rich, cheap, and lying. VRP · Skew · Earnings implied vs realized · Risk · Premium seller. Not financial advice.

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linktr.ee/premiumseller
Joined April 2020
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SPXVIX
@SPXVIXOct 14
This is the type of data you need to know what to trade, when, and which side. IV rank tells you where a name's vol sits against its own past year, and 25 delta skew tells you which side of the chain carries the premium. $TLT ranks near the top at 58.5 and its puts price at 1.236x call vol, so the level is high and the downside carries the premium. $META ranks right beside it at 58.6, yet its puts price at only 0.884x calls, so the extra premium sits on the upside. $DIA flips it, with an IV rank under 20 but the richest puts on the board at 1.353x calls, and $BRK.B is close behind at 1.334x on a mid-range rank of 36. $MU is low on both at 5.1 and 0.744x. $SPX puts price at 1.327x calls against a 1.059x average for the rest.
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Happy Wednesday! Yesterday was $VIXY and $VIXM. Today is how options price a day everyone knows is coming, like this afternoon's Fed decision. $VIX1D tracks the $SPX move options price for just the next day. The day before 25 of the last 28 Fed decisions, $VIX1D closed higher as options got pricier ahead of the news. Then the extra premium comes out fast: on recent decision days it fell a median 12.0% in the hour after the release. Follow if you want to know whether $VIX sitting above its own average says anything about the $SPX trend.
Card: $VIX1D on Fed decision days. Big number: 12.0%, the median $VIX1D drop in the hour after the 2 PM release, on Fed decision days since Nov 2023. Line chart of the median $VIX1D path on those days from 9:30 AM to 4 PM, climbing into a white dot at 2 PM and falling after it. Bottom tile: $VIX1D closed higher the day before 25 of 28 Fed decisions.

ALT Card: $VIX1D on Fed decision days. Big number: 12.0%, the median $VIX1D drop in the hour after the 2 PM release, on Fed decision days since Nov 2023. Line chart of the median $VIX1D path on those days from 9:30 AM to 4 PM, climbing into a white dot at 2 PM and falling after it. Bottom tile: $VIX1D closed higher the day before 25 of 28 Fed decisions.

SPXVIX
@SPXVIXOct 27
Happy Tuesday! Yesterday was $SVIX, which bets against the closest $VIX futures. Today is the long side, funds that own $VIX futures. On a calm day those futures usually slip lower as they near expiring, and the nearest months slip fastest. $VIXY holds the nearest months, $VIXM futures a few months out. Over the last year $VIXY lost 43.6% and $VIXM lost 16.0%. The tradeoff shows when fear spikes: on Aug 5, 2024, $VIXM rose 22.6%, about half of $VIXY's jump. Follow if you want to know how options price a Fed decision day, with one landing tomorrow.
Card: long $VIX funds over the past year, Oct 27 2025 to Oct 26 2026. Two big numbers: $VIXY, which holds the nearest futures, lost 43.6%, and $VIXM, which holds later futures, lost 16.0%. Line chart of both daily closes from the same starting point, with $VIXY ending well below $VIXM. Bottom tile: $VIXM rose 22.6% on Aug 5 2024.

ALT Card: long $VIX funds over the past year, Oct 27 2025 to Oct 26 2026. Two big numbers: $VIXY, which holds the nearest futures, lost 43.6%, and $VIXM, which holds later futures, lost 16.0%. Line chart of both daily closes from the same starting point, with $VIXY ending well below $VIXM. Bottom tile: $VIXM rose 22.6% on Aug 5 2024.

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🤢🤢
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I will be adding a couple doomsday hedges to my portfolio. I hope CBOE and NYSE have power backups so we can exit our trades lol
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This is the second account affiliated with Watcherguru spreading the same type of news 🤔🤔 @grok is this done on purpose? Investigate please.
BRICS News
@BRICSinfo21h
JUST IN: 🇯🇵 Japan to urge all citizens to stockpile at least 3 days of food and water in preparation for major disasters.
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Wtf is going on? I am seeing these types of posts from different countries. @grok verify please!!!
Remarks
@remarks21h
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino tells Americans to take 30-day emergency preparedness warnings seriously.
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Absolutely. And it’s also important to check the current expected move vs its own history to see if it’s outsized or normal for each name.
The Income Wheel
@theincomewheel14h
Replying to @SPXVIX @grok
That spread is why I size differently by name. A 7 percent expected move in SOFI and an 18 percent move in IREN are not the same trade, even if the premium looks tempting.
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Hey @grok, is it true that Canada asked its citizens to stock up on supplies?!! Have any other countries asked theirs to do the same?
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So @grok went with $SOFI, and options price it for about a 7% move through next week. $IREN is priced for about 18% and $BA for under 5%. Same five tickers, and the market expects some to swing far harder than others.
Card showing how big a move options price for each of the five stocks in the ask by the Nov 6 expiry, from the Oct 27 close at the money straddle. IREN 18.0 percent, ASTS 11.6, SOFI 7.0, TSLA 5.2, BA 4.5. The widest is about 4 times the tightest.

ALT Card showing how big a move options price for each of the five stocks in the ask by the Nov 6 expiry, from the Oct 27 close at the money straddle. IREN 18.0 percent, ASTS 11.6, SOFI 7.0, TSLA 5.2, BA 4.5. The widest is about 4 times the tightest.

SPXVIX
@SPXVIX19h
Yo @grok, which stock looks like the better buy at current prices? and why? $TSLA: ~$407 $BA: ~$169 $SOFI: ~$16 $ASTS: ~$42 $IREN: ~$27 Let's see if you're a good analyst!
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Hey @grok, China's AI and chip stocks have dropped hard since their summer peak. List the biggest stock bubbles that burst in modern history and how long each market took to get back to its old high.
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Under a normal distribution, the probability of $EWZ’s extreme drop is approximately 1 in 58 quadrillion 🤯
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New feature just dropped! Photo Resharing! @XCreators
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Let’s try it on your post first 😉 @XCreators
Creators
@XCreators16h
Photo resharing is live. See a photo you want to share? Long press it and tap Post photo. The original author gets credit, and you both earn from Original Content Rewards.
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The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex18h
BREAKING: Trump says Venezuela could become the '51st state'
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Since 1990, $VIX has closed as high as: 🚨 2008: 80.86 🚨 2011: 48.00 🚨 2015: 40.74 🚨 2020: 82.69 🚨 2025: 52.33 AND YET, its median close is 17.56, and it closed under 20 on 63% of trading days. The panic days are the ones people remember. They're just rare.
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Yo @grok, which stock looks like the better buy at current prices? and why? $TSLA: ~$407 $BA: ~$169 $SOFI: ~$16 $ASTS: ~$42 $IREN: ~$27 Let's see if you're a good analyst!
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Cash is melting. Gold has topped. Houses are about to crash. Stocks are too expensive. Crypto is a casino. AI is in a bubble and coming for your job. Everyone is sure something breaks next. @grok what the f*ck should we do?
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$EWZ got crushed Monday after Lula won Brazil's runoff, and the options still price big swings. Into Friday's close they give a 16% chance of a 5% pop or better and 15% for a 5% drop or worse, close to even odds either way.
Chart card: EWZ odds range to the Oct 30 close, data pulled Oct 27 at 1:49 PM ET. Daily candles for EWZ since Jul 27, close on Oct 26 34.15. On the right, a probability curve for the Oct 30 close, built from the options with strikes nearest the current price. Most likely level 34.5. Low end 32.9 and high end 36.4, two times out of three. Far low 31.3 and far high 38.2. Chance of closing up 5% or more from 34.6, the price at the pull: 16%. Chance of closing down 5% or more from 34.6, the price at the pull: 15%.

ALT Chart card: EWZ odds range to the Oct 30 close, data pulled Oct 27 at 1:49 PM ET. Daily candles for EWZ since Jul 27, close on Oct 26 34.15. On the right, a probability curve for the Oct 30 close, built from the options with strikes nearest the current price. Most likely level 34.5. Low end 32.9 and high end 36.4, two times out of three. Far low 31.3 and far high 38.2. Chance of closing up 5% or more from 34.6, the price at the pull: 16%. Chance of closing down 5% or more from 34.6, the price at the pull: 15%.

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I called the vol crush in $EWZ on Sunday night xitter.cf/SPXVIX/status/21147186…
SpotGamma
@spotgamma20h
Incredible to watch $EWZ vol crush after the election despite it going down 20% Dec skew Gold = pre election teal = today
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Update on this Frankenstein trade. I watched it everyday and was surprised how resilient it is. Currently sitting at +$4.4K, still juicy Theta, flat Gamma, almost flat Delta and Vega believe it or not. Will keep documenting this journey. What do you guys think?
SPXVIX
@SPXVIXOct 12
I just love the smell of Theta burn $$$ Up $4K+ so far, not bad for a new experiment in $SPX
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If you don't trade the 111, you are missing out. Thank you $IWM for the ~$400.
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