CEO at https://teapawt.net/t.co/Du9c9hraVQ / Co-Owner at Gulfview Builders / Investor
Rockport, TX
Joined August 2015
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Salone Trading Principles
1. DON’T GET GREEDY: Small daily profits turn into large yearly gains
2. 3 Trades per day
3. Patience separates the good traders from the bad traders
16 cents. That's how close $SPY got to 760.46 premarket (high 760.30, now 758.30).
Friday broke the box there. Today is the retest from below.
✅ Reclaim and hold: range back on, 777 overhead
❌ Rejected: 755.54, then 749.7
Brent -4.1%. ISM at 9 CT.
Not financial advice
Morning briefing: Monday, Nov 2
Oil drops 4% on Iran talks, tech bounces after a brutal Friday. $AAPL and $PLTR report tonight. Midterms tomorrow.
Today's catalysts (ET):
9:45 S&P Global manufacturing PMI (55.9 prior)
10:00 ISM manufacturing (54.5 expected, 54.5 prior)
10:00 Construction spending (0.4% expected)
After the bell: $AAPL (EPS est $1.98, options imply about 3.7%), $PLTR (EPS est $0.32, implied about 11%)
Futures (7:00 ET, vs Fri settle):
S&P 500 +0.46%
Nasdaq-100 +0.75%
Dow +0.50%
Friday recap:
S&P 500 7,580.07 (-1.82%)
Dow 51,770.31 (-1.09%)
Nasdaq 25,437.00 (-2.85%), worst day since June
$INTC -28.6%, worst drop since the 1980s. $AMD -10.9%, $QCOM -11.1%. The Nasdaq-100 shed over $2.5T in October.
Bonds, oil, gold, BTC:
10Y 4.91%, down 1 bp (CNBC, early ET). Seven-week low area.
Brent (Jan) $108.67, -4.2%. WTI $99.63, -4.3%, back under $100
Gold $3,911 (+0.3%)
Bitcoin about $77,900
Overnight drivers:
✅ Fed: markets price roughly 72% to 75% odds of a December hike, down from about 83% after last week's hold.
⚠️ Iran: a third day of talks with Qatari mediators. A draft proposal is circulating and a follow-up meeting is possible (Reuters source). Rubio says Trump wants it solved diplomatically. Nothing signed or confirmed by both sides.
❌ Hormuz: tanker attacks have picked up. Goldman raised its Dec Brent call to $105 from $90.
➡️ OPEC+ held December output steady Sunday.
➡️ Asia: China's official factory PMI slipped to 49.3, back in contraction. Kospi +2.2%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Nikkei -0.3%.
Premarket on our names (vs Fri close, 7:05 ET):
$BE +2.4%, $MU +2.1%, $SPCX +1.8%, $AMD +1.6%, $IONQ +1.4%
$GOOGL +1.1%, $NVDA +1.1%, $TSLA +1.1%, $AVGO +0.6%
$AMZN +0.6%, $MSFT +0.4%, $AAPL flat, $META -0.6%
Analyst moves:
$NVDA: Melius cuts its target to $315 from $420, keeps Buy
$AMZN: Phillip Securities upgrades to Buy, $330 from $320
Early movers:
$OKTA +3.6%, joining the S&P 500 (replacing Kenvue)
$INTC +0.2% after Friday's crash
Week ahead:
Tue: Midterms. JOLTS 10:00. $AMD after the bell
Wed: ADP 8:15, ISM services 10:00. $ARM, $QCOM after the bell
Thu: Jobless claims 8:30. $IONQ after the bell
Fri: October jobs report 8:30 (55K expected vs 29K prior, unemployment 4.2%)
$SPY map (Fri close 755.72, premarket 759.15):
777 range top
760.46 range bottom
759.15 premarket
755.72 Fri close
755.54, 749.7, 731.38 below
Stance: Friday broke the box. $SPY lost 760.46, tagged 750.36 and closed right on 755.54. This bounce is a test from underneath. Reclaim and hold 760.46 and the range is back in play. Get rejected there and 755.54 then 749.7 are the shelves. Bounce, not a trend change, until 760.46 holds.
Not financial advice
October went out in smoke 🔥
$SPY -1.8% Friday to 755.72, sitting on my 755.54 line
✅ Big Tech burned cash on AI
✅ 10Y fell to 4.93% as bonds caught the bid
✅ Brent $117.63, a 6-month high
✅ Fed held, 2 dissents wanted a hike
Next week: Apple Mon, jobs report Fri
-15.4%. That's the chip index $SOX in October.
S&P 500, same month: -0.9%.
From its Oct 6 closing high: -19.1%.
Today alone: -7.2%.
Read: chips took the hit while the rest of the index held up. I want it back over 11,518 (Thursday's close) before I trust a bounce.
66 cents. That's how close $SPY got to 749.7 today (low 750.36).
My levels, this week:
➡️ 777 range top: untested, high 773.36
❌ 760.46 range bottom: broke, closed 755.78
➖ 755.54: pierced, closed 24 cents over
✅ 749.7: held
Week: -0.55%. The range is now overhead.
-$530.6M net call premium by 12:30 CT. Same time Thursday: -$245.1M (Unusual Whales).
$SPY 754.97, -1.87%, at the low of the day.
❌ Lost 760.46 (range bottom)
❌ Lost 755.54
➡️ Next level: 749.7
Guess: 749.7 holds into the close.
Not financial advice
Morning briefing: Friday, Oct 30
$AMZN and $INTC hit the AI spending nerve. Nasdaq futures -2.4%. Last trading day of October.
Today's catalysts (ET):
8:30 Q3 Employment Cost Index (0.8% q/q expected, 0.9% prior)
9:45 Chicago PMI
Before the bell: $XOM, $CVX, $ABBV
Month-end flows into the close
Futures (7:05 ET, vs Thu settle):
S&P 500 -1.06%
Nasdaq-100 -2.41%
Dow +0.05%
This is a tech selloff, not a whole-market one.
Thursday recap:
S&P 500 7,720.39 (-0.30%)
Dow 52,342.56 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 26,184.72 (-1.38%)
$GOOGL -12.6% after its miss dragged tech. $META +2.0% was the green spot on our list. Russell 2000 +1%.
Bonds, oil, gold, BTC:
10Y 4.93%, down 5 bps (CNBC, early ET). Off the 5% line.
Brent Dec contract over $117 (+2.2%, expires today), WTI about $104
Gold $3,986 (-1.1%)
Bitcoin about $77,600. Binance lost about $6.3B in a hack, the biggest crypto theft on record. Withdrawals paused.
Overnight drivers:
✅ Fed: CME FedWatch shows 71.4% odds of a December hike, down from about 86% right after Wednesday's hold. PCE ran 3.6% y/y.
⚠️ Iran: Qatari mediators are back in Tehran pushing a deal, coordinated with the US (Reuters source). Iran called the last draft unacceptable. No deal confirmed by both sides.
❌ Hormuz: UKMTO confirmed a tanker was hit leaving the strait. Iran claims tankers struck mines, not independently verified. Brent is on track for a 13% monthly gain.
❌ Asia: Kospi -3.5%, Nikkei -2.1%. Hang Seng +1.5%.
Premarket on our names (vs Thu close, 7:05 ET):
$AMD -9.1%, $BE -8.6%, $AMZN -6.0%, $MU -5.9%, $IONQ -5.5%
$AVGO -4.1%, $SPCX -3.8%, $NVDA -3.0%, $TSLA -2.8%
$AAPL -1.5%, $META -1.5%, $GOOGL -0.7%, $MSFT -0.2%
Earnings fallout:
$AMZN: EPS $1.89 vs $1.96 expected, revenue $201.94B vs $202.31B. AWS +39%, fastest in years. Free cash flow -$42.4B. 2026 capex held at $220B.
$INTC -25%: Q4 guide 25c EPS vs 43c expected, revenue $15B to $16B vs $17.1B. CFO sees the PC slowdown lasting through 1H 2027.
Analyst moves:
$AMZN: BofA $317 from $320 (Buy). HSBC $325 from $310. Oppenheimer $285 from $320. TD Cowen $340 from $350.
$INTC: BofA downgrades to Neutral. Roth downgrades, $70 from $120. Jefferies $85 from $120.
After hours / early movers:
$INTC -25%, $SNDK -14% (8-for-1 split announced)
$RIVN +6% (raised delivery outlook)
Week ahead:
Sun: OPEC+ meets
Mon: ISM manufacturing 10:00. $AAPL and $PLTR after the bell
Tue: Midterms. JOLTS 10:00. $AMD after the bell
Wed: ADP 8:15, ISM services 10:00
Fri: October jobs report 8:30
$SPY map (Thu close 769.36, premarket 761.88):
777 range top
769.36 Thu close
765.21 Tue low
760.46 range bottom
755.54, 749.7, 731.38 below
Stance: $SPY is set to open right on top of 760.46, the bottom of the box it has held since August. $QQQ at 698 premarket is already under its Oct 23 low of 701.16. Hold 760.46 and the range survives a tech flush. Lose it and 755.54 is the next shelf. No dip buys until 765.21 is back.
Not financial advice
The buried $AMZN number tonight isn't AWS.
It's ads.
Ad growth ex-FX: 26% in Q2, 12% in Q3.
$19.64B vs $20.82B expected.
Amazon blames Prime Day timing and guides high teens for Q4.
If that rebound shows up, this miss is noise. If not, it's a crack.
$MSFT is the outlier. Azure +48%, search ads ex-TAC +12%, capex $45.2B, and free cash flow still +$18.63B.
My take: ads aren't breaking everywhere. The AI bill is landing everywhere, and only Microsoft is still covering it with cash.
$META ads +26%, about flat vs 27% in Q2. Ads are fine.
The cash isn't: free cash flow -$2.12B on $34.91B of Q3 capex. 2026 capex guide raised to $135B-$145B.
$AMZN ads ex-FX +12%, down from 26% in Q2. $19.64B vs $20.82B expected.
2026 capex: about $220B.
TTM free cash flow: -$42.4B vs +$14.8B a year ago.
$GOOGL Search +12%, down from 17% in Q2. YouTube ads +9%, from 13%.
Google said AI Mode monetizes less. Q3 free cash flow: -$9.07B.
2026 capex guide $195B-$205B, with 2027 set to rise significantly. Stock -12.6% today.
Is ad growth slowing while AI spending explodes?
Partly. I checked all 4 Q3 reports.
Ads slowed hard at 2 of 4. AI spending is huge at all 4. Free cash flow went negative at 3 of 4. 🧵
-$245.1M net call premium by 12:30 CT. Same time Wed: +$19.5M (Unusual Whales).
$SPY 768.61, -0.48%. Range 767.27 to 770.76.
✅ Over 765.21 (Tue low)
❌ Under 772.31 (Wed close)
➡️ 777 range top out of reach
Guess: 767.27 holds into the close.
Not financial advice
