Sheila Sweeney

🗳️ Early vote update, 4 days out Republicans keep chipping away at the raw ballot gap, but the projected electorate ticked toward Democrats in most states. 📊 Nationally 
• 40.7M ballots cast in 44 states
• The newest 3.3M ballots broke D+3.5
• Early vote margin: D+10.5, 0.5 pts toward R since yesterday
• 9.3 pts more D than at this point in 2024, down from 9.7
• Projected electorate: D+3.1 across all 50 states and DC, 0.4 pts more Democratic than our turnout model 🔴 Republicans gained on the raw count in 32 of 34 states with new ballots, led by Tennessee, Maine, Kansas and New Hampshire. 🔵 The exceptions: 🎰 Nevada, where the newest ballots broke D+13.9, and 🌉 California, D+29.8. ⚖️ Nevada's projected electorate is now D+0.4, 1.9 pts more Democratic than our turnout model. 📉 In the battlegrounds, the early vote is 9.3 pts more Democratic than at this point in 2024, down from 9.9. The gap narrowed everywhere except Nevada and Arizona. 👥 Who's voting: Hispanic share rose again in Nevada (15.2%) and Arizona (14.5%), though both still trail 2024 by about 1.5 pts. Black share slipped in Georgia and North Carolina but is still 5.3 and 3.5 pts above 2024. 🏛️ House: Projections moved toward Democrats in most of the competitive districts we track, led by NV-02 and a cluster of North Carolina seats. NC-03 now projects to a D+1.6 electorate.

Rs definitely winning most campaign news cycles this week, with the Alaska ballot stacking story (NYT->everybody) and Michigan Dem infighting (Stevens's fiance->DFP->everybody. The emerging Dem position on Alaska is that it's a politically trumped-up prosecution; the hope is that most voters don't trust DOJ under Trump/Blanche, just as Trump's voters didn't trust Fulton County/Jack Smith etc. On Michigan, the position that it's annoying for them to be dragged back into this (but maybe Abdul should be more contrite). The hope is that this is a frantic hobbyist conversation and not actually moving votes. More localized, the entire Ohio GOP apparatus is endorsing a Laura Loomer reporter's view of Acton rallying in Toledo: That she looked drunk or addled. That story started on X and hasn't really jumped to MSM. Also, strangely, Rs insisting that Acton had been banning recording at her events before this week (not true). Does any of this move late deciders? Does it motivate more 2024 voters who don't usual vote in midterms? There's other news, beyond campaign news - and that has not been as good for Rs this week.

🚨 JUST NOW: President Trump reveals he'd nominate TED CRUZ to be the next Supreme Court Justice should one leave the bench during his term in office "The Democrats will 100% vote for it because they HATE the guy and they want to get rid of him. And the Republicans would 100% vote for it because they can't STAND him" 😂 "They would like to get rid of him! So I'd get 100% of the vote, and he would be a Supreme Court justice, and he'd do a GREAT job." I did NOT expect that announcement tonight 😆