Code writer. Food lover. Night sleeper.
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Joined April 2012
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Mr. M retweeted
‘But Anthropic used convertible notes…’
Topic du jour for the perma-bear crowd despite that masterpiece S-1 from Anthropic. (Other than that end of days crap)
Those convertible note holders will take Anthropic stock. In many cases at earlier more lucrative valuations. 😮💨
Mr. M retweeted
The notion that GPU debt and data center financing is *closed* is laughable.
As of now, the world is separated between those who say they know, and those who actually know.
If @jvisserlabs is right, intel is more valuable than equity, so let me tell you this:
selective credit markets means the due diligence goes beyond your traditional ways of finding out the winners from the losers.
I will gladly go on the record here and say that based on my latest, the debt markets are not closed for $IREN.
Best of luck to the others.
Mr. M retweeted
Interesting that $SPCX enters into a $40 Billion deal with Apollo Global Management to lease data center hardware.
The same Apollo Global Management's chief economist last week came out with a paper proclaiming "Zero Corporate Returns" outside of tech for those using AI.
That was followed up by this weekend's comments by Elon Musk about stranded compute and neocloud doom amidst a rapid build to 10+ GW of its own capacity at SpaceX.
Not saying it is all coordinated. But also, hard to merely chalk this up to coincidence. Kind of a page out of the Anthropic playbook. End of SaaS, Cyber, etc.
Mr. M retweeted
$IREN is dumping like it’s going to zero, but I’ve made up my mind: I’m ready for zero.
I’m about to turn 59 and technically retired/unemployed anyway. If this goes to zero, I’ll just get a job cleaning restrooms. Honestly, my mind would probably be much healthier never having to look at a stock chart again—just laser-focused on making toilets shine, going home, and getting a great night’s sleep.
Jokes aside, the macro environment for neoclouds looks terrible right now, but let’s be rational:
If you put Childress (750MW) and Sweetwater 1 (1.4GW) up for auction today, hyperscalers or Elon would gladly buy them out well above the current market cap.
A single site with 1.4GW like Sweetwater 1? Elon would kill for that kind of power right now.
The fundamentals are only getting stronger. People should be ultra-bullish at these prices, yet everyone is panicking and bearish. Ironically, they should have been bearish when it was trading at $50. The cheaper it gets, the more bullish you should become.
I trust the Roberts brothers—with their investment banking background, they know exactly how to navigate this credit crunch and capital cycle.
When financially fragile competitors get wiped out and power becomes even scarcer, the patience required right now will be more than worth it.
There is a Japanese proverb:
"雨降って地が固まる" (After the rain, the earth hardens — Adversity builds strength).
I can't think of a better phrase to describe where $IREN stands right now.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Mr. M retweeted
Overall, @elonmusk is right that among 200+ Neoclouds, names like FirmusAI, NextDC, Nscale, Crusoe, SharonAI are at risk of having delays leading to idle depreciating GPUs and not being able to obtain financing. There are many more smaller Neoclouds that I haven't heard of that have higher risk than the ones I listed.
I do believe there is a temporary freeze for non-hyperscaler or IG grade debt right now as banks are uncertain who to lend to. Credit can freeze and unfreeze. After the unfreeze, there will be a spread among lower and higher risk Neoclouds so it's not like it's going to be a permanent lockout on credit if you aren't Hyperscaler or $SPCX.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Mr. M retweeted
Our Boy Elon over here spreading FUD like it’s HIV in the 90’s. The space is so new that it can work until it doesn’t.
Remember when people freaked out when MAGIC made a return to basketball after contracting HIV??
Today that would be a nothing burger 🍔. Back then it was all anyone could talk about.
This will be what Elon Neo Cloud FUD will become.
Dude if you want to buy out some of these companies, just make a reasonable offer lol 😂
I’m cheering for you, but you don’t have to go the FUD route.
Mr. M retweeted
Putting Together What @elonmusk is Saying/Doing
AI Demand
1. Just yesterday, Elon said "Agentic demand is growing faster than I’ve ever seen anything grow" (1).
2. His actions match "I've been personally spending a lot of time in Memphis, often 4 days a week" (2). $SPCX's biggest goal in terms of revenue next year will be bringing 10GW of compute online.
Financing Availability
1. Now Elon is saying "debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers".
Conclusion
Elon basically sees AI as the biggest opportunity in the coming years and is doing whatever he can to bring compute online. Now he is saying no one else besides him and hyperscalers will be financed to do it.
So I ask you: Is this how America works? The biggest business opportunity of our time only available to the richest man and the richest companies? Is this Elon's patriotic vision for America?
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Mr. M retweeted
I like Elon and of course I respect Elon, he’s one of the best entrepreneurs on the planet however nothing he says about neoclouds should be taken seriously.
SpaceX is essentially the largest neocloud (with hyperscaler aspirations)… so naturally he wants/needs other neoclouds to struggle with financing so he can swoop in and steal their demand/customers and/or he wants to buy their land/power thus fast tracking his capacity expansion plans at $SPCX otherwise it’s going to be very hard for him to hit 20GW in the next 2 years.
Mr. M retweeted
More data showing AI compute is becoming more valuable, not less. 👀
GPUs are aging like fine wine, with rental rates up across the board since January 1st
Approximate change YTD:
- H200: +160%
- B200: +120%
- RTX PRO 6000: +65%
- H100: +35%
Even the 6-year-old A100 rents for more than it did at the start of the year
Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-we…
Mr. M retweeted
IMHO, we are in the 1st or 2nd inning of the AI trade and we are already having to climb the wall of worry.
Nothing good comes easy and nothing easy is usually good.
This will likely be the biggest trade of our lifetimes. Embrace the volatility for it is vitality.
Management is key here.
Manage the bankroll.
Manage your sizing.
Manage your emotions and expectations and GO GRAB THIS BAG!!
Mr. M retweeted
IREN is partnering with NVIDIA to launch Minerva, NVIDIA’s new AIOps platform, on IREN AI Cloud.
Our VP of AI Cloud, Jason Forrester, joins NVIDIA’s Gilad Shainer and 650 Group’s Alan Weckel to explore how IREN’s approach to AIOps enhances visibility, strengthens operations and keeps compute productive.
Watch the conversation: youtu.be/MWVjiWYs1sw
Keeping an AI factory running at full yield starts with clear operational insight.
Our SVP of Networking, Gilad Shainer, joins @AlanWeckel, Co-founder of @650Group, and Jason Forrester, VP AI Cloud at @IREN_Ltd, to unpack how NVIDIA Minerva cuts alert noise, speeds root-cause analysis, and maximizes GPU uptime in production.
Watch the full discussion: youtu.be/AYGSUv-EAfY
Mr. M retweeted
$IREN: I've watched this interview multiple times so you don't have to.
Here are the key points Dan made:
> Demand is still there: Jensen's 34x increase in token demand this year
> Reiterated quadrupling operating revenue: ~$1B today → $4B over the next few months
> 2027: customer conversations covering multiples of all the capacity IREN can bring online
> Key priority: how much of the build-out customers can be made to fund
> 2027 and 2028 capacity: effectively sold out. "Any GPU you can bring online, you have got multiple people all wanting it."
IREN’s @danroberts0101 speaks to @ArjunKharpal about AI financing and demand on CNBC.
Watch the full interview.
Mr. M retweeted
IREN will release its Q1 FY27 Results on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
Conference call to be held at 5:00pm (Eastern Time).
A live audio webcast of the conference call can be accessed at IREN’s investor relations website: iren.com/investors
Mr. M retweeted
"NVIDIA DSX is full stack AI factory reference architecture, co-innovated with the world’s leading infrastructure companies."
IREN sites in Jensen Huang's #NVIDIAGTC Berlin keynote. Watch the full presentation: youtube.com/watch?v=PvFjbPYE…
Mr. M retweeted
IREN is advancing sovereign AI in Europe, bringing together its European data center capacity and managed cloud services for customers seeking more choice over where their AI workloads run and how their data and infrastructure are managed.
Announced today at NVIDIA GTC Berlin, IREN has established IREN Europe and appointed Ángel Corcóstegui as Chair of the newly established board of directors.
IREN also secured the civil works license for its planned 300MW campus in Badajoz, Spain. Following the completion of its acquisition of Mirantis, IREN’s software capabilities include workload isolation and operational controls that can help customers address data residency, security and governance requirements.
Read more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-file…
Mr. M retweeted
TLDR from $IREN CEO is that the future is on sale at a deep discount.
Compute is very, very scarce. Energy as well. 💪🏻
A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN.
First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.
Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs.
That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right.
The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics.
There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway.
Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.
Mr. M retweeted
A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN.
First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.
Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs.
That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right.
The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics.
There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway.
Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.
Mr. M retweeted
$IREN es nuevo patrocinador del Real Madrid.
Esto no es casualidad.
El presidente del Madrid, Florentino Pérez, es dueño de una de las constructoras más grandes del mundo.
