$HUM.AX : Cheap, But Captive xitter.cf/puppyeh1/status/209204… I stayed out of $HUM during the activist campaign because I thought Abercrombie’s effective control was an impossible barrier not only due to the size of his position but due to the psychology of the man. It's now to dropped to basement levels but I still see it potentially as a one man value trap. On almost every valuation measure HUM looks extraordinarily cheap - 43c vs 82c NTA, ~4.9x underlying earnings, with fair value plausibly 65–75c. But what closes the gap? What will get you your re-rate? Abercrombie can frustrate an outside bid, benefits from the price staying low while he accumulates, and ultimately has every incentive to take the company private himself at a substantial discount to NTA. My base case is therefore a bid sometime in the next 1–2 years, probably well below underlying value. That's still a pretty good per annum return if you are patient but you better make sure you're in a good holding vehicle keeping in mind the destructive changes that come into play on 1 July 2027. The downside isn’t necessarily business failure. It’s worse for a value investor: years trapped in something obviously cheap with no mechanism forcing the re-rating. I almost bought in when I saw it was so cheap, and then I saw @puppyeh1 accumulating again, but I stopped and paused, and did a much closer analysis, because you've always got to know how this ends in the long term. That was the Trojan Horse with the initial activist campaign and I think that continues to be the problem now, that big accumulating shareholder. The Federal Court decision is still pending. A win would make Abercrombie’s path to greater control easier; a loss probably only delays him. Either way, his 31.84% stake leaves him the key gatekeeper to any takeover or re-rating. Do your own due diligence I am not your fiduciary.

$CWY.AX : Arbitrage Fantasy $3.13 As promised I'm giving a detailed analysis of this arbitrage. xitter.cf/toy59496/status/208766… My conclusion is that you either avoid, short, or buy a MINI. At the prevailing price you are taking much too much risk for going long. Keep in mind that Arbitrage is all about insuring the closure of the deal, and in this case you are insuring a client with a history of bad risks. Economically arbitrages resemble selling an uncovered index put: you collect a relatively modest return most of the time, but occasionally wear a large, correlated loss when the deal breaks. The trick is to be good at avoiding the bad insurance risks. Let's go through it... 1. The apparent return looks great. CWY: $2.73 EQT proposal: $3.13 cash Gross spread: 14.7% Target completion is around Mar/Apr 2027, so roughly ~22% annualised on an ~8-month close. There is also a small ticking fee after 31 March 2027. Sounds attractive. Except this isn't a signed deal. It is a non-binding proposal with 9 weeks of exclusive due diligence. 2. The break could be very very ugly. My break estimate is roughly $2.05–2.15, versus the $2.37 undisturbed price. Why below undisturbed? Because by the end of DD perhaps 8–12% of the entire register could have migrated into arb/event-driven hands. In fact I think it will be even more if they get to nine weeks. If EQT walks, potentially 200m+ shares suddenly want out. Normal pre-bid volume was only ~7–10m shares/day. That's over TWENTY days of normal trading. So it will drop big time.... Unfortunately passive holders don't magically provide a bid. Shorts have largely covered already on the announcement. And several natural active buyers were actually selling CWY below $2.40 before the proposal, eg a John Wiley. So the break isn't simply “back to $2.37”, but rather an arb liquidation event. At $2.15 the downside is −21.2%. 3. Then there is EQT. EQT suck. They have a striking Australian pattern of using DD aggressively and being willing to walk: Vocus 2019, Iress 2021 and AUB 2025 all failed after EQT had progressed well beyond an initial approach. So “they already increased $3.00 to $3.13, therefore they're committed” doesn't persuade me. These are serial tyre kickers. I am frankly stunned professional arbitrageurs have put $250m in it today...they seem like amateurs to me... I spoke to some best in class arbitrageurs I know and they aren't touching it... 4. What about another bidder? This is where the process gets particularly interesting, and dangerous. For roughly the first four weeks there is hard exclusivity. After that a fiduciary out exists, but a rival still faces a formidable obstacle course: • sign a standstill • disclose its identity and material terms to CWY/EQT • information supplied to the rival must also flow to EQT • EQT then receives a matching right • and an equivalent EQT counterproposal wins. So EQT gets nine weeks inside the data room while a challenger starts behind, disarms itself and effectively shows EQT its hand. Current Takeovers Panel guidance does permit short periods of hard exclusivity in appropriate circumstances, but the combined deterrent effect of these protections is where a Panel argument becomes possible. Effectively it disadvantages alternative bidders. In practical terms: I would assign very little value to a competitive auction rescuing the trade. And there is no natural alternative bidder who would not conflict with ACCC 5. Which brings us back to the price. At $2.73 with a $3.13 deal price and $2.15 break: Market-implied completion probability ≈ 59%. My subjective probability is closer to 45–55%, in fact even lower than that .. So I think the market is paying too much for an unsigned EQT proposal while underpricing both DD/walk risk and the potential violence of the arb unwind. The asymmetry is approximately: Long: +14.7% if $3.13 / −21.2% at $2.15. Short: potentially +21% on the break, while covering quickly around ~$3.00 if a binding SID appears limits the ordinary deal-success loss to roughly 10%. The dangerous tail for the short is obviously a higher EQT offer or genuine competing bidder. But at $2.73, I find CWY considerably easier to argue as a short merger-arb than a long merger-arb. I've also produced a few Kelly Criteria graphs to give you the idea... Do your own due diligence I am not your fiduciary.

ASX Arbitrage & Special Situations 15 Aug 2026