We modeled the coming crunch in the launch market from 2027-2032. 1,377 satellite-launching entities, 37 rockets, quarter-by-quarter matching model that projects the backlog and pricing for rideshare/dedicated/GTO

Can @LongshotSpace beat @SpaceX's Starship on launch costs?

Today's article: How @Starcloud_ Can Compete Against @SpaceX

Today's free article: If China Beats Artemis to the Surface, How Will They Do It?

In today's article we project Starship pads coming online and what cadence of launches they'll allow for

There's a ton of interesting sats going up on $SPCX's Transporter-18 this weeks: Google's Orbital Data Center MVP, Sun Catcher's power beaming demo, Starfish's first Otter, Blackwing's nanosats, two capsules from Varda, Cowboy Space's first sat

What's China up to with space compute?

Prognosticating.

Our article today projects Starship flight rates through 2028, coming in more than an order of magnitude short of past public predictions from $SPCX

In today's article we looked at the emergence of VLEO, fresh uncharted territory for satellite operators.

NASA is going to struggle mightily just to get to uncrewed demos of the HLS Moon landers, and it doesn't need this as an extra problem, but basically nothing is being acknowledged nor done about it. Our free article out today.

Our article today looks at all the "space" companies who have discovered they actually have a pretty good defense business on their hands

Lots of people are building Falcon 9 clones, especially in China. But every deviation from the OG costs them (or gains them) payload compared to the original. The baseline: Falcon 9 throws 22.8 t to LEO expendable, 17.4 t with a drone ship landing (−24%), 14.2 t returning to the launch site (−38%). The most popular deviation is swapping kerosene for methane. Methalox has a lot of advantages: it's cheaper, doesn't coke, can be autogenously pressurized, and is much closer in temperature to LOX. But its lower density cuts into performance: −18% in drone-ship config. Switching to heavier stainless steel (also cheaper & easier) gives another cut: −11%. Do both and you're down −29%. Other deviations gain payload. Catching the booster instead of carrying landing legs: +2%. Staged-combustion kerolox: +10%. Both are built into the Long March 10B: +12%. But normalize by liftoff mass and none of these rockets are set up to hit the bar set by Falcon: 3.2% of liftoff mass to LEO with booster recovery.

Everyone wants to clone Falcon 9: we looked at all the copycats (not Long March 7A), and how they stack up to the OG

In our article today we make the bear case for orbital manufacturing, totally contradicting our bull case from 2 weeks ago. If you're skeptical about space drugs, this is the writing to validate your beliefs!

Our post on $ASTS is up.