memory is sovereignty | luma basketball research

Joined February 2020
In 2001-02, Allen Iverson won the scoring title at 31.4 PPG on 31.7 TSA (-2.8 rTS. ) According to TS Points Added - cost his team 1.8 points per game. Ranked 214th of 216 in shooting PAC, accounting for the massive 38% of team possessions carried, says he was worth +1.2 points per game, ranked 60th of 216. This begs the question: at what point does scoring load start to pay for inefficiency? Is there a third dimension to measuring shooting production? Introducing (P)oints (A)bove (C)ost
Been toying around with the relationship between usage, efficiency, and overall impact. specigically at what point volume starts paying for inefficiency The Kobe or more recenlty Brunson clause: where they may not be the most efficient, but whose raw shooting volume still provides value that would otherwise be lost if replaced by their teammates. Below is a table of some higer usage two gaurds and atheir UW RTS: Usage Weigted Real Trueshooting % court-share.com/luma/builder…
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Elite Work
This functionality is powered by an engine that I've been building for @databallr for the past two months. Am so, so excited to showcase everything we have here in the near future.
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π‘Ίπ’‚π’Šπ’π’• retweeted
This is exactly where Embiid should be 70% of offensive possessions. The attention he draws combined with the shrinking of the floor does wonders for his overall Playmaking. Everyone can eat in this kind of offense and now Embiid has players he can feed.
The thing to remember with the Sixers is they will have pressure points. Watch the ball movement out of it. Embiid brings it up has a cross match, defense helps. Kick, gets it back, more help, right to Edgecombe for 3.
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π‘Ίπ’‚π’Šπ’π’• retweeted
Had a great time talking about our respective journeys to the G League with Varun! Only a few weeks until the season tips off! #estoescapitanes
With the G League draft over, it's a day that involves a lot of analytics and breakdown to find players. For Avi Chauhan, Ahmed Jama & Nile Goodwin, who are in the front office side of the Mexico City Capitanes, I got to interview them about it at NBA Summer League! We really talked about what it's like for the Capitanes to build their rosters, the G League International Draft, clinching their first G League playoffs in franchise history last season and much more into the analytics side of basketball! Avi Chauhan @100guaranteed Ahmed Jama @slipthescreen Nile Goodwin @NileHoops Oh, and yeah, we played NBA 2K G League! A rematch of the NBA G League playoffs of the Mexico City Capitanes vs Rip City Remix! youtu.be/FDFEnHD9Eqs
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Writing a paper to formally introduce EBV later this year EBV pure accounting describes as well as BPM but predicts substantially worse. Though it is 100% free of cross-signal contamination ~15 - 20% of DBPM's credit comes from offensive stats (Pts,etc) EBV is better for pure descriptive decomp work, but a mix between EBV and BPM is best for prediciton (LOKI)
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"We Should Stay Ready at All Times This is my guy!
"There's no beef, but it might be a little lamb chops and some gravy.” β€” Jaylen Brown on Jayson Tatum (h/t @ohnohedidnt24)
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π‘Ίπ’‚π’Šπ’π’• retweeted
There is an absolute barrage of inference providers popping up that get to $1M/mo extremely quickly. This is the rough economics of inference providers: Even if you rent on-demand B300s at $8/GPU-hr, many open source models (GLM 5.3, Kimi K3, DeepSeek 4.1 Flash / Pro) can get you >$10-20/GPU-hr at reasonable throughputs (100tok/s). DeepInfer from DeepSeek directly shows they can get $38/GPU-hr on off-peak hours. Every chip / model has a different throughput / interactivity curve, but there is a lot of arbitrage between even high rental spot prices and token prices. New chips (Vera Rubins) also change this meaningfully. Your ability to be making gross margin relies on your utilization and how good your stack is. Gateways like OpenRouter, Vercel and more help solve that problem by aggregating demand to you. May inference providers discount their tokens to get longer term commits too. I've even heard stories of selling back Chinese model tokens to Chinese labs! One thorn in the economics of these players is that many Chinese open source model labs are now asking for rev share if you're at a certain scale, espp for pre-release access to their models for day 1 support. That further pushes the threshold to be in the money. The barrier to entry seems low and falling. There are even stories of smaller ones who can "vibe code" a way to stand up OSS models on a cluster they rent. And as a result, we're seeing 10s of such companies pop up almost every week and immediately skyrocketing revenue at low-ish gross margin and raising rounds on the back of that. Unsurprisingly, because the actual service provided seems commodity, this eventually drives up compute prices and drives down token prices. In theory, it would seem like neoclouds who have the lowest cost of compute and themselves have started inference businesses would win the race to the bottom (Crusoe Coreweave Nebius and GMI all have inference businesses), with larger players (Modal Fireworks Baseten) being second because they are well capitalized to make bigger compute commits cheaply and have demand (high utilization), but the reality is the pie is growing so quickly that even upstarts are absolutely crushing it and growing aggressively (inference dot net, DeepInfra, Wafer, Relace, Morph). Strategies vary across the board: neoclouds want to serve inference, inference players want to be neoclouds and do higher margin reserved instances / post training, and some want to go heterogeneous hardware or creatively flexible compute constructs. The risks are: do open source models continue to be competitive? Will their creators rent seek more? Will their shape change compute needs? How do different chips change economics? Who gets compute in a supply crunch? Below is a aggressive sketch of how gross margin scales with utilization for various models / chip sets. For now, there are many inference providers and they’re all ripping!
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1,323
216,108
π‘Ίπ’‚π’Šπ’π’• retweeted
la plupart des gens Γ©changent leur audace contre l’approbation sociale vers 25 ans et passent les 60 annΓ©es suivantes Γ  regretter ce trade Γ  8 ans vous vouliez conquΓ©rir Mars et Γ  28 ans vous hΓ©sitez 3 heures avant de publier un tweet de peur de manquer de sΓ©rieux et d’Γͺtre moquΓ© entre les 2, vous avez intΓ©grΓ© la crainte du jugement de gens qui vous auront oubliΓ© quelques semaines voire quelques mois aprΓ¨s votre mort l'erreur la plus tragique consiste Γ  atteindre 80 ans en rΓ©alisant qu'on a passΓ© plusieurs dΓ©cennies Γ  solliciter la permission d'exister juste parce qu’on Γ©tait pΓ©trifiΓ© par le regard d'autrui
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π‘Ίπ’‚π’Šπ’π’• retweeted
PHAB-5 WENT OFF IN FIRST GAME WITHOUT BRON 😀 πŸ”” Embiid: 28 PTS, 11 REB, 10 AST πŸ”” Brown: 27 PTS, 5 AST, 3 3PM πŸ”” Maxey: 26 PTS, 4 AST, 4 3PM πŸ”” VJ: 17 PTS, 13 REB, 5 3PM How far are the Sixers going this year?
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π‘Ίπ’‚π’Šπ’π’• retweeted
"There's no beef, but it might be a little lamb chops and some gravy.” β€” Jaylen Brown on Jayson Tatum (h/t @ohnohedidnt24)
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Will be watching EVERY 6ers game this season VJ team defense is incredible #LeFan
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π‘Ίπ’‚π’Šπ’π’• retweeted
I just received a notification from Supabase that I'm exceeding usage on many counts and I need to upgrade. Asked Astra to move all to a $4/month self-hosted VPS (that I already had). We're talking several million records on 14 db, with Stripe and everything. Done.
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side note @CourtShareApp will not be abandoned will relaunch with C-ARC revamp
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π‘Ίπ’‚π’Šπ’π’• retweeted
my current favorite learning mode: a book/paper pdf open in claude desktop’s browser pane, where i highlight passages and ask questions straight with claude. alongside it, an implementation of the idea im reading about so i can play with it. immediacy in both ideas + intuition.
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π‘Ίπ’‚π’Šπ’π’• retweeted
Have the Philadelphia 76ers found their β€œswitch” (final post about this game lol)
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Extremely bullish on beringer
Did not expect Timberwolves to have 86% defensive rebound rate and 38% OReb%. Beringer near top in league on offensive rebounds. Ball's defensive rebounding almost cut in half. Others doing it.
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