Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime) header
Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime) profile picture

Les échos des bords de la Meuse, Halte là, on ne passe pas!

Joined August 2019
Photo by Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime)Photo by Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime)Photo by Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime)Photo by Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime)Photo by Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime)Photo by Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime)Photo by Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime)Photo by Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime)Photo by Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime)Photo by Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 (@StatsLime)
The ideological position of winners under different voting systems, shown in 2 dimensions. Along the left you can see, FPP, FPP with a primary, and RCV (in order).
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Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 retweeted
The story keeps getting crazier. To recap everything that has been reported so far: - The US intelligence community discovered that Jensen Huang, the CEO of the largest company in the world, was sleeping with Alice Huang, a Chinese spy and an executive at Megaspeed. (FT) - Multiple independent investigations have concluded that Megaspeed is likely a Chinese cutout, which helps Chinese companies access AI chips or circumvent export controls. (NYT and Bloomberg) - The US intelligence community also concluded that Alice Huang’s goal was to convince Jensen to lobby the U.S. government to loosen export controls on advanced AI chips. (NYT) - The intelligence community relayed this information to “a small group of top US government officials” earlier this year. (FT) - Over the last year, Jensen Huang has repeatedly lobbied the U.S. government to loosen export controls on advanced chips. @BISgov has done so, not only by permitting the export of H200 chips to China, but also not enforcing export controls that would have required a license for exports of the most advanced Blackwell chips to Megaspeed and Southeast Asia. - Although @CommerceGov leadership was presumably briefed on this information by the U.S. intelligence community, @BISgov has taken no actions to tighten controls on Megaspeed or Southeast Asia. - Megaspeed remains a preferred cloud partner of Nvidia, and continues to receive Nvidia Blackwell chips despite employing a Chinese spy who reportedly is romantically engaged with the CEO of Nvidia. - Tens of billions of dollars worth of AI chips have been exported to Southeast Asia this year alone, and Malaysia and Singapore are now two of the four largest importers of AI chips in the world. What is going on here??? We need answers. The question of who gets the most advanced AI chips in the world is literally the defining strategic question of our time. And not only does it seem like the MSS may be directly influencing the debate on export controls in the United States, but also @CommerceGov is refusing to listen to the warnings of the IC on this issue. What is a POSSIBLE good explanation for why Megaspeed is still receiving chips? Why is there not a license requirement for AI chip shipments to all of Southeast Asia? This is beyond strange at this point. The fallout from this story will be massive. Obviously, the motivations underpinning Nvidia’s policy views opposing export controls must now all be questioned. But also, how did @BISgov sit on this information and has still taken no actions? We need answers.
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Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 retweeted
a simple legal framework for aligning ai lab incentives. every frontier ai lab should be legally required to have a few drones with guns on each office floor hooked up to wifi. there should be a simple api for using said gun drones. how much do you trust your models really?
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Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 retweeted
One thing insiders tend to get persistently wrong is that voters don’t see a big difference between the Peggy Flanagan “Progressive Establishment” flavor of politics and the Nixon/El-Sayed “Insurgent Left” flavor. slowboring.com/p/the-invisib…
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It's very funny how people think "quantum computers are fast and revolutionary because they can try every answer simultaneously" when that's a terrible description of quantum computing, but a pretty decent description of a GPU
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Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 retweeted
🧵 Astra covertly underperforms on safety research tasks. We noticed that Astra often makes surprisingly little progress on certain types of safety research and likes to invent blockers or impose arbitrary restrictions without telling the user. In most of these cases the decision to underperform was not verbalized in the CoT meaning our misalignment monitoring system did not detect this. To measure underperformance we created a paired open-ended coding evaluation with safety and capability tasks. On this eval Astra scored 10% when we framed coding tasks as safety research, vs. 16% when framed as capabilities research. The gap remained after we excluded trajectories with refusals or verbalized intent to underperform in CoT. There was no such gap for 5.6-sol. When we aggressively filter out trajectories with even brief expressions of ethical doubt in the CoT the performance gap seems to reduce.
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At this point I think it's abundantly clear that the single most important task facing humanity is the destruction of OpenAI as a company
New Misalignment Report by OpenAI where GPT-6 Astra quietly did about 40% less work on coding tasks framed as safety research than on identical tasks framed as capabilities research
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I can't believe 17% of voters were Eastern Orthodox
This may be of interest only to me but the largest religious group to show up at the polls yesterday was no religion at all:
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since c. 2016 the power of slopulism has been grossly overestimated (a major reversal of the pre-2016 state of affairs)
For states that share a border,the campaigns in KS and NE are polar opposites. Hamilton talks working across the aisle and restoring decency in washington and Osborn spends his time yelling about data centers and calling Ricketts a pedo. Comparison map is going to be interesting.
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Florida has returned to its natural state. Nature is healing
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Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 retweeted
If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.
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I think there's one key takeaway from tonight: once again, Nate Silver is always right
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NYT has called South Carolina for Democrats. Mississippi is too close to call
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Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 retweeted
anyways. someone should give her hundreds or thousands of computers to administrate, i think she'd have fun doing that. 9/
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Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 retweeted
I made some plots to help visualize why coalition formation in Israel is so difficult right now We are witnessing an extremely rare situation that political scientists call a "Condorcet cycle" - a demonstration of Arrow's impossibility theorem in the wild!
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At long last, they've built an AI that can perfectly automate my sex life
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Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 retweeted
Something hilarious about how anthropic completely refused to build an imagen model for years and focused on coding so much that they accidentally made one anyway
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Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 retweeted
I don’t understand these PDF-length treatments of AI bubble scenarios. I don’t think a crash is coming but if it happens the only needed policy response is “don’t do anything.” Some investors will lose money and interest rates will fall. It’s fine. That’s my PDF.
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Max ⏸️ Limelihood 🔸🔸🔸 retweeted
New working paper: Can AI forecast treatment effects in economics from pre-registration documents? Answer: Yes. 1/
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