Gil (@RFishBlueFish) header
Gil (@RFishBlueFish) profile picture

Gil

@RFishBlueFish

Politics, EA, Constitutional Design Alt: @BFishRedFish. Also follow me over there: https://teapawt.net/t.co/a6MzEQVsoE

 NYC
designingdemocracy.net
Joined March 2019
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  • Followers806
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Photo by Gil (@RFishBlueFish)Photo by Gil (@RFishBlueFish)Photo by Gil (@RFishBlueFish)Photo by Gil (@RFishBlueFish)Photo by Gil (@RFishBlueFish)Photo by Gil (@RFishBlueFish)Photo by Gil (@RFishBlueFish)Photo by Gil (@RFishBlueFish)Photo by Gil (@RFishBlueFish)Photo by Gil (@RFishBlueFish)
PSA: If anyone (particularly in EA spheres) knows somebody working on anti-gerrymandering policy, DM me. Seems like there's real potential to pass something this term and this is something I can potentially contribute to.
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Log loss / brier score of correlated outcomes is not very useful aghhhhhhhhh. Publish (some approximation of) the joint log likelihood of the total results!
VoteHub (@VoteHub) profile pictureVoteHub
@VoteHubNov 6
VoteHub’s Midterm Forecast had the lowest log loss and RMSE across federal races among major forecasters. Thank you to everyone who followed and trusted our forecast, which received more than 8.5 million views.
Image from VoteHub (@VoteHub)
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Someone should lobby to put a ballot measure that: -mandates people rank all 4 candidates in 2nd round for their vote to count -disallows people from withdrawing their name from the 2nd round ballot after the first round Would fix all the problems and might actually pass.
MaineJumbo🌲🦞 (@MassJumbo) profile pictureMaineJumbo🌲🦞@MassJumboNov 7
Are they just gonna keep spamming this every election cycle lol
Image from MaineJumbo🌲🦞 (@MassJumbo)
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So what are the chances someone suggested this Dana White and Trump pulled a Four Seasons Total Landscaping?
Image from Connor Ewing (@ConnorMEwing)
Image from Connor Ewing (@ConnorMEwing)
Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) profile pictureAaron Rupar
@atruparNov 7
Trump: “I am pleased to announce that the Great Dana White, a violent Fighter and Warrior, has been offered the job of Press Secretary of the United States. I have requested that he bring with him assistants, even though some are not from our Country, of Islam Makhachev, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Justin Gaethje, Daniel Cormier, Amanda Nunes, and Kayla Harris. We need these people to defend us against the Lunatic Left. Dana will be a Press Secretary like none other. Dana, please take the job! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Image from Aaron Rupar (@atrupar)
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Here's the House version
Image from Gil (@RFishBlueFish)
Gil (@RFishBlueFish) profile pictureGil@RFishBlueFishNov 5
The arrow maps are basically unreadable, here's a trend map between 2024 pres and 2026 sen. (trend = swing - 14%)
Image from Gil (@RFishBlueFish)
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I think it's really important that we get the messaging right here. Turnout was a persuasion issue. A lot of Trump voters disliked Trump's actions to the point of dissuading them from voting. Many of them would not have voted Republican even if they showed up.
Lenny Bronner (@lennybronner) profile pictureLenny Bronner@lennybronnerNov 5
GOP politicians seem to be coalescing around explaining the midterm outcome as a result of Trump voters switching their vote to Democrats -- but so far the available data points at turnout as the main driver.
Image from Lenny Bronner (@lennybronner)
Image from Lenny Bronner (@lennybronner)
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Trump has a -20 approval rating. People are really upset with his actions right now, this midterm was not primarily a case of Democrats being more motivated.
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Do it and be fucking legends
Israel Elects (@israel_elects) profile pictureIsrael Elects
@israel_electsNov 5
Party consultations with President Herzog have concluded. Here's whom each party recommended for PM: 🔴Eisenkot: 67 MKs (Yashar, Together, Democrats, Yisrael Beteinu, Joint List, and Ra'am) 🔵Netanyahu: 46 MKs (Likud, RZP-Zehut, Shas, and OY) ⚪Abstained: 7 MKs (UTJ)
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There is exactly 1 demographic in Israel that is center-to-left wing and growing. Use them!!!!!
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The arrow maps are basically unreadable, here's a trend map between 2024 pres and 2026 sen. (trend = swing - 14%)
Image from Gil (@RFishBlueFish)
Tom Wood (@thomasjwood) profile pictureTom Wood@thomasjwoodNov 5
Even if you're familiar with the nationalization of politics and @dhopkins1776's brilliant book, the the uniformity of the senate shift in '26 is striking
Image from Tom Wood (@thomasjwood)
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Justice Samuel Alito has said that the midterm election results didn’t change his plans to remain on the Supreme Court, per @BLaw.
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Image from Gil (@RFishBlueFish)
Gil (@RFishBlueFish) profile pictureGil@RFishBlueFishNov 5
Replying to @SpecialPuppy1 @chrislhayes
It was at that moment that the entire Electoral Reform movement in the US realized that they had wasted like 40 fucking years advocating a system that doesn’t even do what it was designed to do
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cc:@StatsLime
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If you read about the electoral reform movement in the US it’s quite tragic, like Fairvote started by trying to get people on board with STV and eventually they gave up and switched to RCV because it was the closest system and the country has suffered ever since
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A lot of bad people got booted last night but few as bad as this supervillian. RIP BOZO.
Image from Gil (@RFishBlueFish)
Image from Gil (@RFishBlueFish)
Image from Gil (@RFishBlueFish)
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I still can’t believe the South Carolina senate race. Random Resist Lib Lady democrats nominated because nobody bothered to run - a woman who talks like that Scarlet Johansson SNL SOTU response sketch - is now a US Senator. She won by ~5, outperforming most senate Dem candidates.
Nicky🇺🇸 (@NickyScatz) profile pictureNicky🇺🇸
@NickyScatzNov 4
What race was your biggest shock?
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Oh and did I mention that she campaigned like it was 2018? Way more talk about healthcare than every other candidate. (Still a good issue for Dems tbc! but not very topical)
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Ok she maybe she didn't outperform Senate dems but it was close. I love you resist libs with all of my heart. Thank you for everything you've given to this country❤️❤️❤️ teapawt.net/RFishBlueFish/status/2…
Gil (@RFishBlueFish) profile pictureGil@RFishBlueFishNov 4
Replying to @Mill226
It's crazy how close all of these states are. If it was a D+9 year like generic ballot was saying it's basically a coinflip.
Image from Gil (@RFishBlueFish)
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The Iran war wasn’t the worst thing Trump did. It doesn’t even make my top 10. But if you do enough crazy shit with total disregard for public opinion, one of them is going to turn out really really unpopular.
David Shor (@davidshor) profile pictureDavid Shor
@davidshorNov 4
Replying to @davidshor
The simplest explanation for a lot of this is the Iran war - this was Trump's Afghanistan, but even worse. The day before the war started, his approval on gas prices was 49% - within a few weeks it was in the low 30s!
Image from David Shor (@davidshor)
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(That and it happened to be the one that would dominate headlines for literally the entire year)
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