Rune Stava retweeted
Very interesting to correct this error of Quay's in response to @mbw61567742 only to see @mbw61567742 cite Quay approvingly on this point one week later.
Rune Stava retweeted
Peer-reviewed paper published this week reports a group of new SARS-related bat CoVs in Thailand, & demonstrates proof-of-concept you can get actionable public health data from wildlife sampling. 1/🧵
nature.com/articles/s42003-0…
"Når mainstream media fremmer konspirasjonsteorier"
journalisten.no/nar-mainstre…
“AI slop.” Or “An AI wrote that.”
Congratulations. You’ve identified exactly zero factual errors.
It’s the latest version of a familiar dismissal: “You just believe encyclopedias.” Newspapers. Television. The internet. Wikipedia. Now AI. The medium changes. The excuse for ignoring the argument stays the same.
You thought you had a smoking gun. Then somebody answered with a clear, well-written, sourced response that dismantled your points, explained your errors, and introduced evidence you apparently hadn’t considered. No spelling disaster. No barrage of insults. Just a substantially better argument.
So your defense becomes: “An AI wrote that.”
The implication is that your opponent blindly copied and pasted something they don’t understand. It probably never occurred to you that they might hold advanced degrees, work in the field, or have spent years researching the subject.
They might also have a folder titled “Collected Replies to Conspiracy Addicts,” because you all keep recycling the same claims. After answering something fifty times, people don’t need to reinvent the explanation for number fifty-one.
But here’s the most significant point: even if AI helped write every sentence, you would STILL have to address the argument.
Is a fact wrong? Identify it. Is a citation fabricated? Show it. Does a source fail to support the claim? Explain how. Does the conclusion go beyond the evidence? Make that case.
Those are substantive criticisms. “AI slop” by itself contributes absolutely nothing. Neither polished writing nor AI involvement establishes whether an argument is correct. That requires checking it.
This is another familiar behavior of a conspiracy addict: invent a reason to dismiss the answer so you never have to confront what it says.
You may have dramatically underestimated the person replying to you. You may simply have run out of answers. Either way, guessing what wrote the response doesn’t rebut a single word of it.
“You’re a paid shill.” Or “How much are they paying you to say that?”
There it is. You asked for evidence, pointed out an error, or explained why their favorite claim doesn’t hold up. Apparently, nobody could do that without being on somebody’s payroll.
Notice how convenient this accusation is. They don’t have to answer your point, fix their argument, or reconsider anything. They just invent a motive for you and declare themselves the winner.
Ask who’s paying you and how much. They have no idea. They’ve invented an entire financial arrangement based on the fact that you disagree with them.
This is the behavior of a conspiracy addict. Even disagreement needs a secret plot behind it. You challenge the conspiracy because you’re a shill, and they know you’re a shill because you challenge the conspiracy.
But here’s the part they never think through: even if I WERE being paid, even if Big Pharma and secret government agencies funded every word I wrote and supplied every stitch of research, it wouldn’t change a single solitary fact.
I have no inside information. Everything I present comes from publicly available sources. You can read them, check them, and show exactly where they’re wrong. So can anyone else.
Who paid for my time wouldn’t change what the evidence shows. You would STILL have to address it.
Even if your shill accusation were true, it would be completely empty as a rebuttal. If that’s your answer to the evidence, you’ve abandoned the argument.
The pattern I keep seeing from zealous lab-leak proponents is an asymmetrical standard of proof.
For the lab-leak hypothesis, possibility is treated as evidence:
• A Wuhan lab studied bat coronaviruses.
• Researchers performed risky experiments.
• Some records are incomplete or unavailable.
• A lab accident is biologically possible.
Therefore: it absolutely came from the lab.
But for zoonotic spillover, uncertainty is treated as disproof:
• No infected source animal was caught in December 2019.
• The exact intermediate host has not been definitively identified.
• Parts of the supply chain remain uncertain.
Therefore: it absolutely did not come from the market.
So one hypothesis is allowed to survive on “might have happened,” while the other is expected to prove essentially every link in the chain or be declared dead.
Serious researchers don’t have to pretend every fact points in one direction. They can acknowledge evidence and uncertainties on both sides, weigh them against one another, and ask which explanation best fits the totality of the evidence.
The zealots do the opposite. They begin with the conclusion, search relentlessly for anything that confirms it, dismiss or rationalize away anything that conflicts with it, and increasingly treat disagreement itself as evidence that the other person is ignorant, dishonest, or compromised.
And that is the recurring pattern: unanswered questions become evidence, contrary evidence becomes something to explain away, and a hypothesis that should be tested becomes a conclusion that must be defended.
Rune Stava retweeted
viruses found in wild bats with functional furin cleavage site nature.com/articles/s41467-0…
Oh sure. It was the lab. 🙄
🤔 Couldn't possibly have been the wildlife market sitting at the geographic bullseye of the earliest known COVID-19 outbreak.
Pay no attention to that enormous cluster. Instead, hang the entire thesis on a laboratory miles away across the river, where the earliest cases produced no comparable cluster at all. 🤷🏻♂️
The December 2019 cases - including people with no known connection to the market - were geographically centered on the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. Live mammals susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 were being sold there in late 2019.
Geography alone doesn't prove an origin. Fine. So add the rest.
SARS-CoV-2-positive environmental samples were concentrated in the wildlife-selling area. Later sequencing found wildlife DNA in every SARS-CoV-2-positive sample from one particularly implicated wildlife stall, including raccoon dogs, masked palm civets and bamboo rats - exactly the sort of mammals capable of participating in coronavirus spillover.
Then add the virus itself. The earliest SARS-CoV-2 diversity consisted of two basal lineages, A and B. Phylodynamic analysis found that the pattern was best explained by at least two separate animal-to-human introductions within weeks of each other, rather than one virus quietly escaping a laboratory and somehow generating the same pattern.
So the lab-leak story requires a remarkable series of coincidences:
A novel coronavirus escapes a Wuhan laboratory.
It somehow leaves no early geographic bullseye around that laboratory.
Instead, the earliest outbreak becomes centered on a market selling susceptible live mammals.
The virus-positive environmental samples concentrate around those wildlife vendors.
Genetic material from susceptible wildlife turns up in the same contaminated stall.
And the earliest viral genealogy looks like more than one zoonotic introduction.
That's a hell of a coincidence stack.
Does this mathematically rule out a laboratory accident? No. China has not shared the sequences, market-animal records or lab biosafety data WHO repeatedly requested, and SAGO was also denied access to US and German intelligence material. WHO still says a lab incident cannot be excluded - not because there's evidence for it, but because the data needed to investigate it was never provided. SAGO's chair described the intelligence material they did receive as speculative, political, and not backed by science.
But when you ask which hypothesis the available evidence actually points toward, the answer isn't difficult: the weight of the evidence favors zoonotic spillover through the wildlife trade. That's also the conclusion of WHO's 2025 origins assessment.
Rune Stava retweeted
FBI investigation of scientists re COVID origins is absurd. Most scientists believe COVID began as a natural spillover. NIH scientists including Fauci follow the same evidence & draw the same conclusion. We can’t rule out a lab leak but no evidence exists
nytimes.com/2026/09/05/healt…
Rune Stava retweeted
My 2-hour interview with Tony Fauci was the discussion Congress should have had: thoughtful, respectful & richly informative. We ranged from AIDS, TB and Malaria to Anthrax, SARS, Ebola, & COVID
Isn't Congress' job to learn lessons from COVID & prepare for the next pandemic?
Rune Stava retweeted
De Amerikaanse bio‑ethische gemeenschap zegt nu luidop wat velen al lang zien: de aanval op Fauci heeft niets te maken met kritiek op wetenschap, maar alles met een heksenjacht op een man die decennialang zeven presidenten heeft geadviseerd en tijdens COVID gewoon deed wat elke wetenschapper hoort te doen: de feiten volgen. Wat we nu in het Congres zien, is geen debat maar een spektakel. Macht wordt misbruikt om een zondebok te creëren, terwijl men weigert te leren uit de pandemie. En zo jaagt men precies die mensen weg die we het hardst nodig hebben wanneer de volgende crisis zich aandient.
Gezien het belang van evidence-based volksgezondheid en de bescherming van onderzoekers tegen politieke intimidatie, zou het Belgisch Raadgevend Comité voor Bio-ethiek misschien ook kunnen reflecteren op de steun die wetenschappers zoals dr. Anthony Fauci verdienen. Een ethisch signaal ter verdediging van wetenschappelijke integriteit zou waardevol zijn.
bioethicstoday.org/blog/an-o…
Rune Stava retweeted
An exciting new preprint offers insights into how SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses can acquire cleavage motifs for the cellular protease furin. A thread on the importance of the furin motif in the SARS-CoV-2 spike and its possible origins.🧵
To infect a cell, coronaviruses must first get inside. The spike protein handles this, with help from the host cell.
Spike binds receptors on the cell surface. After activation by cellular proteases, it drives fusion of the viral and cellular membranes, allowing delivery of the viral genome into the cell. This step is essential for infection.
For SARS-CoV-2, spike activation involves two key cleavages. Furin cleaves at the S1/S2 site during virus production. A second cleavage by TMPRSS2 at S2′ then occurs during entry into human respiratory cells.
The furin cleavage motif matters: disrupting it reduces infection of human respiratory cells and attenuates SARS-CoV-2 in animal models.
The closest known relatives of SARS-CoV-2 (sarbecoviruses) come from bats, consistent with an evolutionary ancestry in bat coronaviruses. Yet none of the known closely related bat sarbecoviruses has a furin cleavage motif at S1/S2. This absence has featured prominently in discussions of SARS-CoV-2’s origin, including claims that the site might have been acquired through laboratory manipulation.
Let’s examine whether furin cleavage motifs are generally advantageous for sarbecoviruses and how they can be acquired.
Good Judgment har nå oppdatert vurderingen sin til 79 % zoonose. Oppdateringen bygger videre på 2024-gjennomgangen, der analyser fra blant andre Gilles Demaneuf og Michael Weissman inngikk i materialet for lablekkasjesiden.
goodjudgment.io/docs/Covid_O…
The rigor of Superforecasting: Over 50 Superforecasters engaged in 750+ discussions to assess the arguments in the Covid-19 origins debate. Their assessment? Natural zoonosis is 74% likely the cause. See full report:
goodjudgment.com/wp-content/…
#Superforecasting
Rune Stava retweeted
Lab Leak community online is now almost entirely overlapping with the anti-vaccine / MAHA community. Their feeds are basically the same. Who could have foreseen this outcome?
Rune Stava retweeted
A privilege to speak with these talented and dedicated scientists. This current mini dark age of science and health in the USA will one day end.
Rune Stava retweeted
We return to the never ending lab leak discourse with four actual virologists. Something you might imagine would be more common but sadly is not. Out now on podcast, out soon on YouTube.
"The Lab Origin Menu
The COVID lab leak is back with a vengeance, but the story doesn’t hold together when you try to lay out the recipe for a pandemic"
open.substack.com/pub/drbobm…
Rune Stava retweeted
I, like many scientists, was quite interested in COVID origins so I read Pekar 2022 and Crits-Christoph 2024 and listened to three hours of interview with Worobey, Andersen, and Holmes and then a few more hours of Rootclaim debate videos and transcripts. And then I also chatted a bit with Richard Ebright on twitter. I found the former rigorous and convincing and the latter an absolute raving loon. Have I done enough reflecting?
Amidst all this discussion of the COVID origin docs released recently by the Senate committee, I remain dumbfounded by the CONTINUED lack of interest of the scientific community into where this pandemic came from.
Whatever you think about the motivations of the people who wrote the Proximal Origins paper (and the documents certainly call those into question), the effect of this on the scientific community writ large was to signal that the official stance was "natural origin" and that any questioning of that claim, let alone investigations into it, were anti-science conspiracy theories.
I'm hardly a lab leak proponent - I've said all along that my prior was natural origins, although that's shifted a bit with subsequence disclosures - but it was really quite ugly how even being publicly open to the possibility of lab leak was treated as an apostasy - despite the fact that many scientists agreed in private.
I hope scientists - especially those with political or other influence - will reflect on this and when called upon to discuss scientific issues of great public import will place far less emphasis on "controlling the narrative" and instead will emphasize protecting public inquiry and being personally open minded.




























