Data-first election analytics with a deep focus on Arizona. Public analysis here. Campaign work at https://xitter.cf/t.co/JmJCAJQO1q. Founder: @derek_weech
Phoenix, AZ
Joined April 2026
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(1/5) 🗳️ AZ EARLY BALLOTS - 2026 LOOKS LIKE 2022
as of Oct 15 | 19 days out
No data/evidence to support a blue wave so far.
Every party is returning ballots at almost exactly the rate they did at this point in 2022. – at Arizona, USA
🗳️ AZ EARLY BALLOTS
⚪ INDEPENDENTS (MEGATHREAD)
as of Oct 23 | 11 days out
190,806 independents have voted.
23.0% of every ballot returned.
In 2022 they were 25.5% of the early vote.
Independents are the slowest bloc to return a ballot.
Return rate:
🔵D 30.6%
🔴R 27.6%
⚪Other 17.9%
Where the 184,641 we can score sit on our partisan lean:
🔵Hard Dem 13.9%
🔵Lean Dem 30.3%
⚪Middle 15.8%
🔴Lean Rep 37.1%
🔴Hard Rep 2.9%
🔵44.2% lean D. 🔴40.0% lean R.
The August primary says the same thing.
Independents who have voted and pulled a primary ballot:
🔵D 21,494
🔴R 18,393
68.8% skipped the primary entirely.
There is a Democratic edge, and it is small. Nothing here is a 60-40 break.
The widest Democratic edge measurable here is 🔵D+7.8, on primary ballot choice.
60-40 needs 🔵D+20.
Most of that tilt is registration sorting, not persuasion.
Of 2022's hardest-Rep independents, 84.3% are registered Republican today.
The hard-Rep independent pool fell from 101,775 to 30,441.
They did not change their minds. They changed their registration.
Taken as a control: how often each lean group returns early is flat against 2022, no more than a point in any of the five groups.
The behavior did not move. The label did. – at Arizona, USA
🗳️ AZ EARLY BALLOTS - STATEWIDE
11 days out. Same day in 2022 vs today:
STATEWIDE
'22: 🔴R 37.1 / 🔵D 40.0 → 🔵D+3.0
'26: 🔴R 38.4 / 🔵D 38.7 → 🔵D+0.3
MARICOPA
'22: 🔴R 37.8 / 🔵D 38.9 → 🔵D+1.2
'26: 🔴R 38.4 / 🔵D 38.3 → 🔴R+0.1
PIMA
'22: 🔴R 27.2 / 🔵D 51.3 → 🔵D+24.0
'26: 🔴R 27.1 / 🔵D 50.3 → 🔵D+23.1
Both ~1pt better for 🔴R than the same day in 2022.
Republicans running 2.7 pts better statewide than the same point in 2022. – at Arizona, USA
🗳️ MARICOPA COUNTY - 12 days out
452,791 returned of 1,994,417 issued
🔴 R 172,799 (38.2%)
🔵 D 175,077 (38.7%)
⚪ O 104,915 (23.2%)
R-0.7 today vs R-1.7 at this same point in 2022 (12 days out).
1.54M ballots still out.
🗳️ MARICOPA COUNTY - 14 days out
306,727 returned of 1,990,021 issued
🔴 R 116,464 (38.0%)
🔵 D 120,698 (39.4%)
⚪ O 69,565 (22.7%)
R-1.8 today vs R-2.8 at this point in 2022.
Maricopa’s early vote finished R+4.5 that year.
1.68M ballots still out. – at Arizona, USA
🗳️ CD6 EARLY BALLOTS - 15 days out
49,442 returned of 405,670 issued
🔴 R 15,501 (31.4%)
🔵 D 22,518 (45.5%)
⚪ O 11,423 (23.1%)
They led by 17 at this point in 2022 and the district closed to R-6.8 by the end of early voting.
119,855 R ballots still out, against 118,824 D. – at Arizona, USA
🗳️ CD1 EARLY BALLOTS - 15 days out
60,533 returned of 413,562 issued
🔴 R 23,476 (38.8%)
🔵 D 23,352 (38.6%)
⚪ O 13,705 (22.6%)
Republicans lead the early vote here. At this same point in 2022 they trailed by 3.4.
CD1 finished early voting R+8.3 in 2022.
133,197 R ballots still out. – at Arizona, USA
🗳️ ARIZONA EARLY BALLOTS - 15 days out
371,086 returned of 3,251,294 issued
🔴 R 139,944 (37.7%)
🔵 D 148,618 (40.0%)
⚪ O 82,524 (22.2%)
Republicans are a bigger share of the early vote than 2022 at this same point (36.7%). In 2022 the early vote finished R+2.6.
2.88M ballots still out. – at Arizona, USA
🗳️ AZ EARLY BALLOTS - STATEWIDE
as of Oct 16 | 18 days out
Issued: 3,247,650
Returned: 257,570 (7.9%)
Returned, by party:
🔴R 36.9%
🔵D 40.8%
⚪Other 22.3%
Today: 🔵D+4.9
Same day 2022: 🔵D+6.2
Republicans are running 1.2 points ahead of their 2022 pace, and ahead on the two neighboring days too, so it isn’t a one-day artifact.
This does not account for split-ticket voting or how independents break. No one knows that until election day. What it does show is a structural edge: Republicans are holding 101,280 more outstanding ballots than Democrats right now, and their registration advantage has grown from 166,000 in 2022 to 313,000 today. The ballots are in hand. They have not come back yet.
2022 finished 🔴R+2.6 from 🔵D+6.2 here. – at Arizona, USA
Want a deeper dive?
Check out our new substack post on ABEV returns:
derekweech.substack.com/p/az… – at Arizona, USA
🗳️ AZ EARLY BALLOTS - MARICOPA
as of Oct 15 | 19 days out
We are seeing the first returns from Maricopa County.
Issued: 1,983,356
Returned: 99,625 (5.0%)
Returned, by party:
🔴R 36.7%
🔵D 40.9%
⚪Other 22.3%
2022 at this same point ran
🔴R 36.9% / 🔵D 40.4% /⚪ Other 22.8% – at Arizona, USA
Want a deeper dive?
Check out our new substack post on ABEV returns:
derekweech.substack.com/p/az… – at Arizona, USA
(3/5) Here is where that went in 2022.
Early ballots: D+7.1 at this stage -> R+2.6 at the end
Election day: R+46.9
All voters: R+10.4
Republicans return late in Arizona, and then they show up in person. – at Arizona, USA
(4/5) Fewer raw ballots are back than 2022 at this stage, but the electorate returning them looks the same.
No measurable over- or under-enthusiasm on either side. Status quo. – at Arizona, USA
(5/5) What this cannot tell you:
- how independents will actually vote,
- whether there are down-ballot defections.
We have not seen the new registration advantages make any effect on this election at this point either.
A well-organized ballot chase program is the variable. On the historical calendar that favors Republicans, who are sitting on 109,000 more outstanding ballots than Democrats. – at Arizona, USA
(2/5) Democrats lead returns by 7.0 points.
In 2022 on this exact day they led by 7.1.
Independents are 22.2% of returns, against 22.5% in 2022.
Historically this is the Democrats' stretch of the calendar. It was in 2022 too. – at Arizona, USA
Republicans have more early ballots out in Arizona.
Democrats have more of them back.
Share of ballots OUT: R 35% D 32% Other 33%
Share of ballots BACK: R 34% D 44% Other 22%
Normal for this stage. The R curve moves late.
20 days out, 3.2M ballots still outstanding.
Precinct-by-precinct breakdown below. – at Arizona, USA
Want a deeper dive?
Check out our new substack post on ABEV returns:
derekweech.substack.com/p/az… – at Arizona, USA
🗳️ AZ 2026 GENERAL - EARLY BALLOT TRACKER
Statewide | as of Oct 14, 2026
More than 54,000 early ballots are back, of 3,242,166 issued. 20 days to Election Day.
Returns so far, by party:
🔴 R 33.8%
🔵 D 43.9%
⚪ Other 22.4%
Against each party’s share of registration:
🔴 R −1.8
🔵 D +15.7
⚪ Other −14.0
The first big mail batch landed. Returns tripled overnight, 17,316 to 54,385, and the Republican gap closed from −4.1 to −1.8.
Daily: stealth-analytics.com/early-… – at Arizona, USA
xitter.cf/StealthPolling/status/… – at Arizona, USA
Political maps can be deceiving. Flat color ≠ turnout.
So we built a terrain view: height is votes, color is who won them.
Every Arizona race since 2022, down to the precinct. Plus live early-ballot returns, updated daily.
See which precincts actually carry the votes, not just which ones are wide. Switch to any candidate and see their share at the same scale as the winner’s.
Elections: stealth-analytics.com/electi…
Early Ballots: stealth-analytics.com/early-…
