$XSP $110 in 2 days, from one of my favorite vol commentators:
teapawt.net/Alpha_Ex_LLC/status/21…
will the catalysts catalyze?
If you buy a one week straddle on the SPX this morning, you pay 1.6%, 14.1 vol. You get a truckload of earnings (27% of the market cap reports today and tmrw alone), an FOMC meeting, the midterms. Throw in core PCE, GDP, ISM and the Employment Cost Index for good measure. Who said we had an affordability crisis?
Since 2024, the probability of the SPX moving more than 1.6% over a one week period is 35%... basically the same for starting in 2023 and 2025...go back to 2022 and (unsurprisingly) it's 42%.
Sunday night #EquilibriumTrade... TV and trading profits! /MNQ $77 net after 30900 short put (completely unnecessary in hindsight!). thanks @optionsuncapped !
$GOOGL, 30DTE put spread 10 days $105 (while I was in OR prep), and covering call 3 weeks 1 roll $316 (while I was in recovery!).
$CRWV "wheel" (ie ATM but with a nickel wing, no actual intention of owning), 2 rolls, 2 weeks, $207.
