3/22 💫

15 Key Stats to Know Before Betting on the Week 8 NFL Slate 🏈 1. Zay Flowers gets an excellent matchup this week against a Bills defense that has played a ton of Cover 3/4 (60.4% rate) this season. Against Cover 3/4, Flowers is averaging 4.53 YPRR with a 0.34 TPRR. He also owns a 42.4% first-read share against those coverages. With Lamar Jackson back and the Bills ranking 29th in EPA/pass, Zay should dominate this matchup. 2. The Jets defense will be without T'Vondre Sweat and likely David Bailey this week. When Bailey and Sweat have been off the field this season, the Jets have allowed 7.05 YPC and, most importantly, 2.85 YBC/A. The Jets have also been much worse against man/gap concepts than zone concepts, allowing 4.28 YPC with a 55.3% success rate against man/gap runs. This is significant because 50% of Ashton Jeanty’s rushes this year have come on man/gap concepts. With the Jets down their top two run defenders, I’m expecting a massive breakout game from Jeanty on the ground. 3. When Jeffrey Simmons is off the field this year, the Titans’ defensive stuff rate drops from 19.6% to 13.5%. They also allow 4.32 YPC without him. In a game where the Bengals are favored by 12.5 points, Chase Brown should find plenty of success on the ground. 4. After two straight underwhelming performances, Garrett Wilson should bounce back this week against a Raiders defense that has struggled to defend the pass. Through seven games, the Raiders’ passing defense ranks 27th in EPA allowed (0.18) and 30th in success rate (50.8%). From a coverage standpoint, the Raiders have primarily operated in Cover 0/1/3 at a 55.6% rate. Against those coverages, Wilson is averaging 2.68 YPRR with a 0.25 TPRR. I expect Geno Smith to feed Wilson a high volume of targets after he was only targeted three times in Week 7. 5. Justin Jefferson is set for a monster performance this week against a Lions defense that has been a passing funnel. Through the first seven weeks, the Lions’ passing defense ranks 23rd in success rate (47%) and 28th in EPA allowed (0.19). Even with Brian Branch back, the Lions’ outside corners aren’t elite in coverage (Jefferson has run 83.2% of his routes out wide). From a coverage standpoint, the Lions have primarily operated in man coverage/Cover 3 at a 64.1% rate. Against those coverages, Jefferson is averaging 3.52 YPRR with a 0.30 TPRR. In a likely trailing game script, Jefferson should thrive. 6. Michael Wilson gets a sneaky matchup this week against a Cowboys defense that has been running a ton of 1-high looks (59.3% rate). Against Cover 1/3 this season, Wilson is averaging 2.03 YPRR with a 0.31 TPRR and owns a 33.3% first-read share. With the Cowboys ranking 31st in EPA/pass and 29th in passing success rate, I like Wilson to bounce back in a likely trailing game script. 7. Washington’s defense has struggled significantly against tight ends this season, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards per game to the position. Dallas Goedert should have a decent amount of success. From a coverage standpoint, the Commanders have primarily operated in two-high looks at a 71.7% rate. Against two-high this year, Goedert is averaging 2.42 YPRR with a 0.32 TPRR. Additionally, when DeVonta Smith is not on the field, Goedert is being targeted on 28% of his routes. In a likely trailing game script, Goedert should see a solid target share against a weak Commanders defense. 8. Bhayshul Tuten gets a great matchup this week against a Colts defense that has struggled to stop the run. Through seven games, Lou Anarumo’s defense ranks 26th in rush success rate (43.7%), 28th in EPA/rush (-0.02), 25th in stuff rate (18.7%), and 28th in YPC allowed (4.76). Meanwhile, Tuten has been one of the more efficient running backs in the NFL, posting a 12.4% explosive run rate and a ridiculous 0.23 MTF/A. The Colts are also allowing 5.15 YPC against zone concepts this year—significant because 48.9% of Tuten’s rushes have come on zone concepts. (Also I'd watch out for Chris Rodriguez Jr scoring in this game) 9. Jonathan Taylor gets a difficult matchup this week against a Jaguars defense that has been excellent against the run. Through seven weeks, Jacksonville ranks 1st in EPA/rush (-0.19), 1st in success rate (33.6%), and 1st in YPC allowed (3.23). They have also been excellent defending zone concepts, allowing just 3.2 YPC with a 37.3% success rate (60% of Taylor’s rushes this year have come on zone concepts). With Quentin Nelson now traded, I don’t expect Taylor to have much success against this stout Jaguars rush defense. 10. With Carnell Tate out, Wan’Dale Robinson is set for a big day against a Bengals defense that has struggled to defend the slot. Al Golden’s defense has already allowed 58 targets through the slot this year, and with Dax Hill now playing the slot, that number should only climb. From a coverage standpoint, the Bengals have operated out of 1-high on 53.4% of their snaps. Against Cover 1/3, Robinson is averaging a 0.26 TPRR with a 26.2% first-read share. In a game where the Titans are massive underdogs, Robinson should lead all Titans pass-catchers in receiving yards. 11. Malik Washington gets an underrated matchup this week against a blitz-heavy Patriots defense. Against the blitz this year, Washington is averaging 2.56 YPRR with a 0.24 TPRR (the Patriots have blitzed at a 40.3% rate). He also draws the Marcus Jones matchup—Jones is allowing a 114.2 passer rating when targeted. In a game where the Dolphins will struggle to run the football, I expect Washington to see a decent target share. 12. The Browns defense is allowing the highest explosive run rate (16%) in the NFL this year. Both Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren own explosive run rates over 10% this season. The Browns have also struggled against zone concepts, allowing 5.0 YPC with a 58% success rate. I expect both Dowdle and Warren to find success running outside and inside zone. 13. After a disastrous start to the season, I’m expecting Mike McDaniel to lean more on Omarion Hampton post-bye. In Week 6, Hampton played 50% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps—the highest among all Chargers running backs. The Rams’ defensive line is down two of its top defensive tackles in Poona Ford and Kobie Turner. The Rams have also been mediocre against the run, ranking 28th in rushing success rate (44.3%) and 21st in YPC allowed (4.22). With Joe Alt back from injury, the Chargers’ run game should have some success in this matchup. 14. Drake London has dominated 1-high this year, averaging 4.06 YPRR with a 0.28 TPRR. That matters here because the Bucs have run 1-high on 59.3% of their defensive snaps. With the Falcons unlikely to have much success on the ground, Michael Penix should lean heavily on London and Kyle Pitts. 15. With RJ Harvey now on IR, Jonah Coleman is set to handle most of the receiving workload in the Broncos’ backfield. In his first game back from injury, Coleman played 15 passing-down snaps. From a coverage standpoint, the Chiefs have primarily run Cover 3/4 at a 52.1% rate. Against those coverages, Coleman is averaging 3.83 YPRR with a 0.50 TPRR (limited sample size). In a game where I expect Bo Nix to face a decent amount of pressure, Coleman should serve as a safety valve. With Jaylen Waddle potentially out and Courtland Sutton already facing a tough matchup, the Broncos’ fourth-round rookie should continue to shine as his snap count grows. Thanks For Reading 🏈 I appreciate the support as always ❤️