Tango

Coming back to this... The sPV is currently record weak and despite model output being less enthusiastic, the flagged major SSW looks to begin sometime next week in a more significant weakening than last year's event. Whether any E'rly anomalies 'drip down' is still uncertain.

Wave-2 forcing will go some way to split the sPV into a pair of joined lobes. This is followed by wave-1 activity which look to give a hybrid-type SSW. Effects on our weather patterns may not arrive until late Nov at the earliest, and depend on downwelling of easterly anomalies.

Morning! The stratospheric polar vortex is currently being heavily disrupted by strong poleward planetary wave forcing - induced by the developing Super El Nino. Overnight ensembles point to the earliest major SSW since 19th Nov 1952 - with a likely onset of Weds 4th Nov!

Thunderstorm Outlook ⛈️ As highlighted for a number of days, an area of elevated #thunderstorms are likely to move north through Thursday morning, bringing torrential rain (30-40mm widely over six hours). The day may see two waves, with lightning and hail additional risks.

Thunderstorm Outlook ⚡️ Through this afternoon, thundery downpours are likely to develop in the highlighted region with the MDT zone seeing a chance of a stronger line of storms, aided by surface convergence and decent MUCAPE (>1200 J/kg). #ukweather #thunderstorm

Had a play around with @UKWX_ great verification tool. Spent time tinkering with the calibration but a good result for a first go. Here's how my and @PeterChailey forecast for Thursday performed, with the first thunder across many parts since 27th June!

Storm Outlook 🌩 A risk of thunder through today, already with some strikes along the south coast. Heavy rain may cause surface flooding in any slow-moving showers and associated chance of vegetation fires with CG lightning.

Happy Eclipse Day 🌙 This evening will mark the fullest eclipse in the UK since 1999! Also tonight is when the Perseid meteor shower peaks. Generally you'll need to look towards the NE, with the radiant near Cassiopeia. #eclipse #meteor #ukweather

At long last, the first measurable #rain in Brighton since Tuesday 30th June! This morning's cold front briefly backed, as it headed over the Downs, giving a modest 4 mm to northern suburbs. More dry #ukweather to come in the meantime.

Outlook for tonight into Saturday morning ⛈️ Storms will be elevated as a trough runs NE, destabilising the atmosphere. Potential for surface-based storms also exists during the day (anywhere from Chilterns eastwards). There is a risk the far SE may see further storms later on.

Elevated storms broke out widely on Tuesday morning, with over 13,000 strikes! The original uncertainty in extent likely was a result of poor modelled instability in the 800 hPa layer. As hotter, humid air arrives, #storms look possible again on Friday and Saturday mornings ⛈️

A slightly late graphic for today/tonight but with some new developments. A large area of elevated thunderstorms developed in the SW earlier, and this is tracking ENE into the upper low region. Overnight, another area of storms may affect the SE before drifting into the Channel.

As you may have heard, heat is on the way, and this time the air mass is a hot and humid one. This may lead to elevated and potentially also homegrown #thunderstorms at times. For now, the first risk this weekend appears to be early Friday and perhaps Friday afternoon.

A thundery afternoon to come across the region with storms expected to develop with the colder air aloft in place. Thunderstorms will initially move E before veering SE later on with most of the strongest storms in eastern parts. Some may feature rotation with weak helicity.

Tuesday and Wednesday have the chance of bringing more thundery downpours to our region ⛈️ A decaying occluded front will move through tomorrow bringing an unstable air mass in from the Atlantic. Showers will develop with daytime heating, likely to be stronger on Wednesday.