Technical Charts

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In 1991, India physically flew its gold out of the country to avoid going bankrupt. How did it come to that? India’s foreign exchange reserves had shrunk to about two weeks of imports. The causes stacked up: heavy government borrowing, a spike in oil prices after the Gulf War, falling remittances from Indians in the Gulf, and political instability. Foreign lenders stopped trusting India. To raise dollars, the RBI pledged around 47 tonnes of gold to the Bank of England and UBS, raising roughly $400 million. It was humiliating, and it was kept quiet at first. But it forced a reset. The government of Narasimha Rao, with Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, devalued the rupee and began dismantling the licence raj. India’s modern economy was born from a crisis that left no other option. Sometimes the worst moment is what finally forces the right reform.

A 233-year-old bank, once banker to kings and governments, was destroyed in 1995 by one man in Singapore. His name was Nick Leeson. Barings was one of Britain’s oldest merchant banks, founded in 1762. Leeson ran its futures trading in Singapore. He was also in charge of settling and recording his own trades, so no one checked him. When trades went wrong, he hid the losses in a secret account numbered 88888. Then he doubled down, betting heavily on the direction of Japan’s Nikkei index. In January 1995, the Kobe earthquake hit and the Nikkei fell. His losses ballooned. By the time Barings found out in February, the loss was about £827 million, more than the bank’s capital. The bank collapsed and was sold to ING for £1. The failure was not just one rogue trader. It was a firm that trusted one person with both the bets and the books.

In 1637, a single tulip bulb sold for more than a house on an Amsterdam canal. Then, in one week, nobody wanted it at any price. This was Tulip Mania in the Dutch Republic, then the richest trading nation in the world. Why did it happen? Merchants had new wealth and wanted status symbols. Rare tulips, streaked with color by a virus nobody understood, were genuinely scarce. Bulbs only bloom in spring, so in winter people traded paper contracts for bulbs still underground. They could bet without paying in full or even owning a bulb. Taverns became trading floors. Merchants, craftsmen and shopkeepers all joined in. There were no rules and no reliable way to enforce contracts. Prices kept rising, neighbors got rich, and FOMO did the rest. Then in February 1637, an auction in Haarlem drew no buyers. Prices collapsed. The market ran on one belief: someone will pay more tomorrow. When that broke, everything broke. Follow the money. Every time.