Mapping the 2025-2035 AI Build Out. Focus: AI x Macro x Energy Infrastructure. Institutional-grade Intel for Investors. https://teapawt.net/t.co/Mro3MmPr0u
Vancouver, Canada
Joined February 2011
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Today we released our write up on Hyperlight, the future photonics powerhouse. It's akin to finding the next Lumentum before it's IPO. They are essentially set to become the "ARM of photonics". We explain in detail why TFLN modulation is the next logical integration in optical interconnects, how much of the $90 billion TAM is available to be captured & how to buy the platform now before the Hyperlight IPO. Link below or in bio.
If the Kospi drops 20 % from where I shorted last night, it's going to be a very merry Christmas this year.
The responsible thing would have been to set up financing with GPU'S with only the bill of materials cost eligible as collateral on loans. Of course that wouldn't raise enough cash. They could have even just offered 50% financing on the GPU that would have been more sensible.
Financiers had to offer financing on 60 to 80% of the $44k Nvidia markup on a $6-$7k GPU, then when circular demand slows and margins compress you have a credit crisis. That fluffed up collateral goes up in smoke.
The question is now is how fast do margins compress and by how much?
Could an Nvidia GPU sell for a steep discount next year?
Temple 8 Research retweeted
Patrick Stewart, 'Star Trek's' Captain Picard and 'X-Men's' Charles Xavier, Dies at 86 variety.com/2026/tv/news/pat…
Right now I'm torn between whether we hold here and then rally after the midterms or whether we get one more big flush down before we rally.
Im flattening positions going into the midterms next week. We're bound to get quite a bit of volatility.
The Nasdaq continues to sell off after the PCE print today as expected. I think it's increasingly likely we break the lows of the week at 29000.
Temple 8 Research retweeted
Caterpillar $CAT beat Q3 estimates and grew power generation sales 30%, mostly on data centres. The stock still fell about 9% before Thursday's open. That puts all 27 buy calls we logged since August underwater.
Every call, graded:
buzzberg.ai/ticker/CAT?utm_s…
The Scoreboard
Q3 vs a year ago:
• Revenue +17% to $20.68B
• Operating profit +38% to $4.21B
• Power & Energy +18% to $8.78B, led by turbines and large engines. Our pre-print test was growth near Q2's 17%: passed.
Calls since the Aug 4 report: 27 buy, 4 stay away, 9 bet against.
With the stock near $648 before the open:
• Gaetano, buy, Oct 24, on autonomy and data-center power: -6%, from +3.1% at Wednesday's close
• @Temple_Eight, bet against, Sep 4, saying data-center power demand was overstated: right so far, stock -20%
• Every stay-away and bet-against call: right so far, stock down 17% to 25%
Our read: the buyers won the quarter, the sellers won the morning.
Risk: $128M of tariff recoveries sit inside that operating profit. Without them, it rose 34%.
Buying the drop or waiting?
We check every call again on Nov 12, two weeks after the print.
Follow to see who was right.
Caterpillar $CAT is down 17% since Oct 6 and reports Thursday. A photonics researcher we track holds a starter position anyway, betting AI reaches it two ways: self-driving machines and data-center power.
Their call, and every $CAT call we track:
buzzberg.ai/ticker/CAT?utm_s…
First Call
The case, from Gaetano's (@gaetano2026) Oct 24 Substack:
• Autonomous machines doing useful work in the real world
• A dealer network: each machine sold can lead to years of parts and service work
• Power generation: engines and turbines going into data centers
The power leg already shows in the numbers: Caterpillar's Power & Energy sales rose 17% to $8.24B in Q2.
It's Gaetano's first buy call on $CAT in our records. They rank #72 on our 30-day board, which grades their calls, not anyone's returns.
Thursday's test is Power & Energy sales. Growth near Q2's 17% keeps the power leg intact; a sharp slowdown weakens it. Autonomy is a longer story that one quarter won't settle.
We'll put Thursday's number next to their case. Follow to see whether it held!
Looks like the Kospi is about to round trip yesterdays gains. Just watch the bottom fall out once PCE numbers drop.
Temple 8 Research retweeted
@jam_croissant: When the market goes up 10-20% you get a $50T push of new collateral in the markets and that’s what has driven the earnings growth🔥🔥
Wall Street is nearly unanimous right now after this FOMC unchanged move. Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Deutsche, HSBC, Nomura and UBS all expect a hike in December, and BofA wanted one today. Markets agree. We think they're wrong.
The September hike wasn't the Fed fighting a hot economy. It was insurance against an oil shock tied to Iran. Insurance gets cancelled when the risk goes away which we think based on what the Iranian forfeit minister said today. A deal brings oil down and inflation expectations with it and suddenly a 4% policy rate looks far too tight for an economy that never needed it.
December is also when the Fed publishes new dots. If a deal is done by then, we expect the dots to move lower and the first cut to land, the exact opposite of what's priced in.
When everyone sits on one side of a trade, the move comes from the other side. The Street is getting ready for a hike. We're getting ready for a cut…
I really don't see the PCE and GDP numbers coming out tomorrow morning being beneficial to the NASDAQ. $QQQ
I think we're on the way back to this week's lows and through them this time.