#SadBarcaFan retweeted
as a counter to anthropic s1 glaze
majority of q2 was the height of tokenmaxxing where companies were spending as much money as possible on credits
it wasn’t until july where the idea of managing ai spend started to get traction
also q2 was peak Opus 4.7 & Mythos/Fable season hype vs GPT-5.5, and Codex didn’t really take over until 5.6 during the summer
i love anthropic’s products though and probably will slam the ipo because it’s first pure play ai lab
but the belief that the headwinds for the ai trade have disappeared because of this document is not accurate
>models have never been more commoditized than they are right now
i used to be able to tell the difference between model outputs, now it’s almost impossible
the more they get commoditized, the more the margins compress. this was not clear in q2. it is now.
>still no clear proof of how ai drives more profit to most businesses
most of anthropic’s biggest customers are publicly traded companies & they will be incentivized to decrease their own Claude spend to improve their own margins
>capex commitments already signed until 2034
every hyperscaler & lab has been racing to sign deals spanning the next decade. this is all priced in already.
this means the labs/mag7 basically either find ways to make existing chips more efficient (deepseek deepinfer type stuff) or they dilute shares to spend more on capex.
either way stocks go down in both those scenarios
—
i am an ai bull but i believe the winners have still not been decided
i think muse is great but does anyone know if it can drive hundreds of billions of dollars in value to Meta? well that’s what’s priced in and that’s what it would take for the investment to be worthwhile.
—
of course a lot can change but it feels like the real ai trade will take place after this current one settles down
the real one will take time, just don’t see how it’s going to be this business cycle
Quite the consistent pattern on $BTC around FOMC.
Across the last eight meetings shown here, the direction of the week leading into the announcement has been opposite to the direction of the week that followed.
Rallies into the meeting were followed by declines. Negative weeks going in were followed by positive weeks coming out.
Understand that a lot of the positioning is happening before the announcement.
In other words, “priced in.”
We’ve consistently seen these changes in direction around cuts, holds and a hike.
So far, BTC has already corrected 7% heading into the meeting. Yet the further it falls, the more people expect that same direction to continue.
If history repeats, we continue to see blood this week, followed by green next week.
Little rant...
I’ve seen this script so many times before, and I’m here to tell you how it is, respectfully, but without a filter. I couldn’t care less what other people think.
There’s always an excuse not to buy. Always.
What, do you think that in a bull market they’re going to hand you a 50–150% move with bullish news, and everyone’s just going to win? Are you having a laugh?
Peak uncertainty is exactly why $BTC was created. Yet you have supposed OGs using uncertain conditions as an excuse to stay out of the market. Incredible, if you ask me.
Bitcoin is at $80,000 a coin. It’s going to $126,000. There’s absolutely no reason to take profits before that region is reached.
The issue is people are investing and using leverage with money they can’t afford to lose... which leads to amateur mistakes, closing winning positions too early, flipping too soon, then finding excuses to justify the flip. All because they are emotionally attached to their $.
Do less. Not more.
The problem with mfs is they load up X and see these fake lavish lifestyles that 1% live. Maybe 5% of these people are making it. The other 95% are making money by extracting it from their followers.
Then you start comparing yourself to them, thinking, "I need to make XYZ returns because this guy did."
They’re fucking larps, posting demo screenshots made to look real. Exchanges are literally paying KOLs to market for them, making these guys look like legit traders moving millions. They’re not.
That’s exactly why I see zero reason to post anything PnL related.
What’s the point in a space where everyone’s a fucking fraud? I’d rather post my ideas and genuine thoughts, which I believe are worth more than 99% of the shit you see on here.
I’m genuinely disappointed in what this space has become. Years ago, I used to sit on the sidelines and watch people who actually provided value. Now it’s nothing but wannabe max extractors, fake lifestyle flexers and lifestyle traders with 18 and 19yo fanboys acting like they’re the greatest traders alive.
They’re not. They offer fuck all, and anyone with real market experience can see their opinions are irrelevant.
It’s a shame this place has become such a shithole that people can’t tell who’s real and who’s fake. It’s actually depressing. And maybe that’s part of why sentiment feels so fucking dead, like nobody’s even here anymore. Back to the Stone Age.
I spend 14–16 hours a day in one of my rooms, religiously watching charts, with 7-figure exposure in the market. I’m not out partying. I’m not at events. I’m not doing podcasts or interviews. I’m locked the fuck in.
Fuck these wannabe lifestyle traders. They don’t exist.
What does exist are traders who are so fucking obsessed they barely leave their rooms. It is what it is. I just needed to rant, because crypto has never felt this depressing to be part of.
Take it from me, compare yourself to absolutely fucking nobody.
#SadBarcaFan retweeted
I regret to inform you that a lot of problems in life are solved by waking up early and working out.
Nothing is more frustrating than watching your position constantly round trip. And this is precisely the type of price action that causes 90% of people to close their winning positions too early.
We saw the same thing when price kept bouncing off 62.6k, testing that level at least 10 times before finally making its next leg higher.
After rejecting the highs repeatedly, people start losing confidence in their swings. Instead of holding their positions, they begin aggressively scalping the range. Closing, opening, closing, opening.
Sure, they might make some money along the way. But when the range finally breaks, they end up missing the very move that would have been the most profitable.
This is exactly how the market wears down your conviction. Repeated rejections make you question your positioning, and eventually, you start reacting to every minor fluctuation instead of focusing on the bigger picture.
The reality is that catching the larger moves is far more profitable than constantly scalping for peanuts.
Stop letting short term price action distract you from what actually matters.
This account has to be trolling
longed $27,000,000 worth of $BTC
looks good for a bounce potentially extending into the weekend, showing strength here at our lows.
observing carefully, might add more to the position… holding this one.
LETS WIN BROTHERS!!
#SadBarcaFan retweeted
STT and LTCG aren't the issues believe it or not..
The actual issue is the drought, food inflation, fertilizer subsidy and upcoming rate hikes...
This combined with a BoP problem is what FIIs are actually probably looking at.
Looney ass tune death haha hold that
We are getting 90k lol
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