Strategist for Ag 🌱Markets with focus on grains. "Market is not always right" - Anonymous
Joined April 2018
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The Ag Strategy retweeted
Barge Freight collapsing while harvest progresses and river is at least as dry as last year. That's not "bullish spreads". It only tells you how poor export demand is.
The Ag Strategy retweeted
in $ terms easily the shortest the MM across the 3 #wheat classes has ever been for this time of year...
The Ag Strategy retweeted
It seems Australian and Russian #wheat can perform better than expected, perhaps.
Credits to @TheAgStrategy
The Ag Strategy retweeted
Spring wheat crop is in BIG trouble. This 80 was our first field, planted exactly 39 days ago and has already started pushing a head. We don’t even have all our wheat sprayed for weeds yet. This is a large area that has been affected by the lack of moisture and excessive heat.
The Ag Strategy retweeted
Uncontrolled massive wildfires are underway in northern BC/AB in western Canada. We can see a *huge* amount of thick smoke spreading along the frontal system. The thickest smoke will be dragged across southern Canada into the northern U.S. over the next 2 days. Map: @Windycom
The Ag Strategy retweeted
🇺🇸U.S. spring #wheat was 12% planted as of Sunday, the third slowest for the date behind 1997 & 2011.
Last year started a bit faster, but overly wet spring weather led to a record slow planting pace by late May 2022.
Spring wheat acres are forecast at 51-year lows in 2023.
The Ag Strategy retweeted
From the Financial Times article on “US banks on alert over falling commercial real estate valuations.”
As noted previously, the moment of truth for this sector includes the refinancing of some $1 trillion in holdings over the next 18 months — specifically, how smoothly the price mechanism and balance sheets reconcile challenged “stock” conditions with a potentially favorable “flow” situation.
#markets #commercialrealestate #investing #investors @ft #banks
The Ag Strategy retweeted
UBS agrees to buy Credit Suisse for >$2bn in an all-stock deal. 0.50 francs per share UBS is offering in stock compares to CS's closing price of 1.86 francs on Fri, equals Price/Book of 0.043. WSJ reported SNB offered UBS a ~$100bn liquidity to absorb CS. ft.com/content/ec4be743-052a…
The Ag Strategy retweeted
No warm up on any time frame for the Upper Midwest. Going to be a late start for spring wheat seeding. It can go in quick, but producers won't need much incentive to switch this year.
The Ag Strategy retweeted
Not getting a lot of attn (probably because it’s Mar 11th) but there a lot of snow on the ground in the Dakota’s into Canada. 45d snow forecast til Apr 23rd predicting another +2-3’ of ❄️ for ND, SD & MN. IF ❄️ amts continue as forecasted could present some pretty significant issues for spring plant. Just taking notes for now. However, spring wheat isn’t buying acres IMO & IF producers can/willing 🌱🌽 > 🌾… #soybeans #corn #wheat
The Ag Strategy retweeted
🇦🇷#Argentina's #soybeans are now expected to fall 35% from USDA's original harvest predictions - more than in 2009 or 2018. USDA cut the crop size by nearly 20% just this month - also bigger than any monthly cuts in 2009 or 2018. The 2023 drought has truly been historic.
The Ag Strategy retweeted
The world’s second-largest wheat exporting country, Australia, is likely to see shipments decline from record levels as production drops with drier condition trib.al/ulMW1NW
The Ag Strategy retweeted
Regardless of the soybean and corn Arg production numbers, that the USDA or “Bolsas de Cereales”, are going to publish this week, the real numbers that market is evaluating are : soya definitely below 30,00 mtons ( range 26/29 ), and corn within range 33/37 mtons.
The Ag Strategy retweeted
A Sun morn peek at the GEFS probabilistic wkly #argentina temp fcsts for #corn and #soybean trading. The 2 wk lead fcst shows very high probs of above nrml temps (the upper 33% of the dist). The 3-week lead (i.e., up to mid-March) shows regions of 40-50+% prob of abv nrml temps.
