Made in Massachusetts | “When it is dark enough, you can see the stars.”
Boston and Kennebunkport
Joined November 2014
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How to confirm you are low trust: You voted for Trump by reasoning nothing he could do would be as bad as Harris.
Low trust people suffer enormous, internal reactions to fantasies, while ignoring or discounting actual information already on the table.
It's a form of tragedy.
The market is treating $GOOGL like it's an OEM trapped with a legacy auto business as it tries to go electric. But the situation is hardly that stark.
What we have here is a glass half empty/half full situation. $GOOGL
Trump has a brilliant plan that will wipe out the portion of the Republican Party that remains after next week's election.
Traditionally, commodity guys aren't interested in tech but if you've logged many trading hours in oil and copper why are you not all over the semiconductor trade? Same skill set.
You only need to take one step: agree that chips are now in the category of basic human needs.
오늘 하이닉스 3분기 어닝콜 요약
우리 실적 미쳤어. 그리고 28년까지 장기계약 50% 이상 했어.
그리고 29년까지 사실상 DRAM과 HBM 물량은 솔드아웃이야.
그리고 지금 수요가 넘쳐나는데, 너네가 혹시나 걱정하는 수요 감소의 경우에는 걱정할 필요가 없는 게 지금 빅테크뿐만 아니라 전 세계 모든 나라에서 AI를 구축하려고 해. 그 수요가 엄청나.
그리고 캐파 늘린다고 공급이 늘 거라 걱정하는데, HBM 같은 고부가가치 제품 때문에 공정이 더 복잡해져서 공급이 늘기 힘들어.
그리고 씨발, 우리가 빅테크한테 한두 번 속아보냐? 니네가 필요하다고 해서 바로 캐파 안 늘리고, 니네 재무제표부터 다 뜯어보고 캐파 늘려. 구라치다 걸리지 마라.
그리고 니네가 걱정하는 HBM4는 수율이 계획보다 잘 나와서 목표도 상향했고 4분기부터 출하해.
HBM4E도 이미 2분기에 샘플 보냈고 순조롭게 잘되고 있어.
적층 단수 내린 거? 적층 단수를 내려야 그나마 부족한 공급을 늘릴 거 아니야.
그리고 4F²? 제발 기술 구현과 상용화 개념 좀 알고 이야기해.
The Boston View retweeted
Most surprising line in the S-1:
“Anthropic's revenue from Fortune 500 customers paying $100K+ a year averaged under 0.1% of those customers' total expenses in the September 2026 quarter. Over half the Fortune 500 is in that group.”
Absolutely wild given ~$75b in revenue.
There will be a simple narrative the market can follow after the election and that's "divided government. "
So, more stuff like the current bi-partisan permitting bill, and, a far more constrained POTUS.
At least for 90 days, I think the market will like that narrative. $QQQ
No shortage of big, substantial issues for the market to like with Dems back at the helm of house and senate.
teapawt.net/scottlincicome/status/…
NYT reports that among House Majority Dems' Day One priorities next year would be to pass legislation "to end Mr. Trump’s tariffs and restore congressional power over trade policy." nytimes.com/2026/10/23/us/po…
The Boston View retweeted
After a 15% rally in April/May, the S&P 500 has simply consolidated those gains for nearly five months.
The 20-week MA has caught up and now is a nice time for the primary trend (a bull market) to continue.
The Boston View retweeted
Microsoft offering 60k employees buyouts...
AI's impact on the labor market is going to be a big topic next year.
Crazy that the Fed's September SEP forecasts steady (4.1%) unemployment through 2028.
Over on BlueSky, Ed Zitron announced this morning he's going to take some time off. $ANT
The Boston View retweeted
I am shocked, absolutely shocked, that Anthropic ARR has likely gone vertical in October after they cut token prices.
Except the exact same thing happened for the entire AI market, which is why GPU rental prices have surged while token prices declined.
$100b plus in year-end ARR looks possible again.
The Boston View retweeted
Anthropic "is burning cash like crazy" was one big lie, spread by the Ed Zitrons of the world.
For the first 6 months of 2026, Anthropic generated positive free cash flow of $3.4 billion ($3.9 billion of cash flow from operations less $482 million of capex).
And stock-based compensation was only $2.2 billion.. So even FCF less SBC was positive.
The Boston View retweeted
$NVDA Probably the most important chart in the stock market right now...
The MOAT line cannot be anymore precise and clear.
Bulls, bounce it or else.
The Boston View retweeted
Reporting and recent comments suggest that new US strikes will not aim to simply degrade Iran's capabilities or reduce their position in the strait (i.e. what the US attempted with strikes in July/August).
Rather, there is a body of opinion inside the admin that another round of strikes would "finish off" Iran, pushing it to the point where it will capitulate to US demands, agree to a deal that favored the US, allowing the war to end with US victory.
One can dispute the validity of this position. But it seems to be what is informing US thinking.