**The graphic numbers match a third-party modeled estimate, not official data; the broader claims about a decisive Republican advantage and Talarico having “no chance” are overstated relative to available polling and other early-vote models. ****[](<>) The image in the post is a Fox News graphic dated October 23, 2026, labeled “TEXAS EARLY VOTES” and sourced to “ELECTION DATA GUY.” It shows 1,216,809 Democrats and 1,553,194 Republicans. These figures align with E_DataGuy’s (@E_DataGuy) modeled estimates around that date (his posts referenced roughly 2.81 million total votes with a Republican “firewall” of about 336,000). Texas does not register voters by party, so the Secretary of State and county reports publish only the total number of early ballots (in-person + mail), with no official partisan breakdown. All party splits are analyst models based on primary voting history, voter-file modeling, geography, and similar factors. Different models produce different results.[](<xitter.cf/E_DataGuy/status/21137…>) ### Early-vote totals and models (as of ~Oct. 24–25) Official/compiled totals were approximately 4.0–4.2 million early ballots (roughly 21% of ~19 million registered voters), higher than the comparable point in 2022 and mixed versus 2024. Examples of models: - **ColdSpark** (texas.coldspark.com): ~42% R / 42% D / 16% modeled independent (net R +0.6). Democrats showed higher relative turnout among their modeled registrants. This was notably less Republican-leaning than the same point in 2022 or 2024. - **On Point Politics**: Modeled early-vote lead of R +7.9, but described as bluer than the equivalent point in 2024 (by ~11 points). Their Senate forecast still had Talarico with a slight edge (D +1.7, ~63% probability). - **E_DataGuy**: Larger Republican advantage in the specific Oct. 23 snapshot used for the graphic. High turnout occurred in both Democratic-leaning urban counties (e.g., Harris and Dallas) and Republican-leaning ones (e.g., Denton). Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick noted Democrats leading early at one point but predicted Republicans would close the gap with high-propensity voters later in the period. Historical patterns in Texas often show stronger Republican Election Day participation relative to early voting.[](<texas.coldspark.com/>) ### Senate race (Talarico vs. Paxton) Recent polling consistently shows a competitive toss-up, not a blowout: - Polling averages around D +2 (Talarico). - Emerson College (Oct. 17–19): Talarico 48%, Paxton 46% (or 49–48 when leaning undecideds). - Fox News: Tied at 49–49. - University of Houston Hobby School, Texas Public Opinion Research, and others: Talarico leads by 2–5 points or ties. - Forecasts (On Point, Poliwave, etc.) treat it as a toss-up with a slight Democratic edge in some cases. Claims of a “red tsunami,” “bloodbath,” or that “Talarico never had a chance” go beyond the current evidence. Early-vote models are incomplete (early voting continues through Oct. 30; Election Day is Nov. 3), vary by analyst, and do not automatically dictate the final result. Polls can shift, and turnout patterns matter on both sides.[](<callthemap.com/polls/SEN-TX>) In short, the specific numbers in the graphic accurately reflect one analyst’s model as of Oct. 23. Still, Texas provides no official party early-vote data, other models show a closer or relatively bluer early electorate, and the Senate race remains competitive according to multiple recent polls.