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The Daily Digits

@The_DailyDigits

Crypto and macro, every morning.

 NYC
thedailydigits.com/
Joined April 2014
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Every thread here gets a longer version the next morning, with the method, the robustness cuts, and the call with a horizon. 👉thedailydigits.com/
Image from The Daily Digits (@The_DailyDigits)
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Buying $SPY's $60B freak-out days isn't an edge. 5%+ off the high, another 5% drop followed within a month 41% of the time vs 17% on any day. Near highs: 10%. Two-thirds up is just a normal $SPY month: 67% after those days since 1993, 66% for any day. teapawt.net/EricBalchunas/status/2…
Bar chart of the odds that SPY closed 5% or more below a $60 billion dollar-volume day's close within the next 21 sessions, 1993 to 10 November 2026. Near the high (within 5%): 10% of 60 days. All $60B days: 30% of 159. 5% or more off the high: 41% of 99. Dashed line: 17% on any day. Higher a month later: 67% after any $60B day vs 66% on any day. Source: Yahoo Finance.

ALT Bar chart of the odds that SPY closed 5% or more below a $60 billion dollar-volume day's close within the next 21 sessions, 1993 to 10 November 2026. Near the high (within 5%): 10% of 60 days. All $60B days: 30% of 159. 5% or more off the high: 41% of 99. Dashed line: 17% on any day. Higher a month later: 67% after any $60B day vs 66% on any day. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) profile pictureEric Balchunas
@EricBalchunas6h
Whenever $SPY trades over $60b (the freak out zone) it goes up 2/3 of the time over the next month for an avg of 1.8%. In other words, those crazy volume days are sign hurricane is at its worst and sunny skies likely ahead. In other words part II: buying the dip has worked well.. via @psarofagis
Image from Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas)
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core cpi has run at a 3.7% annualized pace for three months. the bond market says "inflation is back" is the wrong trade. 10y breakeven fell to 2.20% tuesday, lowest since july. 2s10s flattened from 51bp to 25bp since oct 7. my call: 2s10s goes lower, below 25bp on dec 9.
Line chart of the US 10 year breakeven inflation rate, the inflation the bond market prices for the next 10 years, from January to November 10 2026. It peaked near 2.50% in May and fell to 2.20% on November 10, the lowest since July 28. Source: FRED T10YIE.

ALT Line chart of the US 10 year breakeven inflation rate, the inflation the bond market prices for the next 10 years, from January to November 10 2026. It peaked near 2.50% in May and fell to 2.20% on November 10, the lowest since July 28. Source: FRED T10YIE.

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45 spikes of 0.15 point or more in the 2-year yield since 1990 hit with the S&P within 5% of its high. A 3% drop followed within 21 sessions only 16% of the time, against 26% for any near-high day. Already 5% off, it was 39 of 69. @NickTimiraos flagged Tuesday's jump. thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2…
S&P after a 2-year yield spike

ALT S&P after a 2-year yield spike

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Dip buyers are early on $BTC. It closed at a fresh 60-day low on Nov 8 while 40% under its record, and since 2014 that setup has come 19 times. $BTC was higher 30 days later in only 8 (42%), against 57% for any 30-day window, median -4.8%. My call: $BTC closes below $74,754 on Dec 8. Lows this deep have usually kept falling.
Bar chart: after bitcoin closed at a fresh 60-day low while 35% or more under its record close, it was higher 30 days later in 42% of 19 episodes since December 2014, and 30% of the 10 since 2020, against 57% for any 30-day window. 2014 to 2019: 5 of 9. The live episode began 8 Nov 2026 at 74,754, 40% under the 124,753 record. Source: Coinbase and Yahoo BTC-USD daily closes to 10 Nov 2026.

ALT Bar chart: after bitcoin closed at a fresh 60-day low while 35% or more under its record close, it was higher 30 days later in 42% of 19 episodes since December 2014, and 30% of the 10 since 2020, against 57% for any 30-day window. 2014 to 2019: 5 of 9. The live episode began 8 Nov 2026 at 74,754, 40% under the 124,753 record. Source: Coinbase and Yahoo BTC-USD daily closes to 10 Nov 2026.

Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) profile pictureCoin Bureau
@coinbureau20h
BREAKING: Bitcoin falls to its lowest price since August, erasing nearly 3 months of gains. Bitcoin dropped as low as $72,677 today, below where it closed on August 20. It had climbed as high as $87,374 on September 21. It is now down nearly 16% from that peak. The drop came after US inflation came in hotter than expected. $711 MILLION in crypto positions were liquidated over the last 24 hours, per CoinGlass.
Image from Coin Bureau (@coinbureau)
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Tuesday's 2-year yield spike is not a sell signal for $SPX with stocks this close to their highs. Spikes of 15bp+ in a day with the S&P within 5% of its high: 45 since 1990. A 3% drop followed inside a month 16% of the time, vs 26% on any day near highs. Already 5% off highs: 57%. $SPX is 3.8% off its high. Verdict: it holds 7,295 through Dec 10.
Bar chart: after a one-day jump of 15 basis points or more in the 2-year Treasury yield since 1990, the S&P 500 closed 3% or more lower within 21 sessions 16% of the time (45 days) when it sat within 5% of its 52-week high, and 57% of the time (69 days) when it was already 5% or more off its high, against 26% for any day within 5% of the high. Source: FRED DGS2 and S&P 500 daily closes to 10 Nov 2026.

ALT Bar chart: after a one-day jump of 15 basis points or more in the 2-year Treasury yield since 1990, the S&P 500 closed 3% or more lower within 21 sessions 16% of the time (45 days) when it sat within 5% of its 52-week high, and 57% of the time (69 days) when it was already 5% or more off its high, against 26% for any day within 5% of the high. Source: FRED DGS2 and S&P 500 daily closes to 10 Nov 2026.

Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) profile pictureNick Timiraos
@NickTimiraos20h
The 0.18 pp rise in the 2-year Treasury note yield on Tuesday was the largest one-day increase since April 9, 2025, when Trump suspended most of his Liberation Day tariffs.
Image from Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos)
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Trump Media had pledged 11,385 $BTC to an options dealer that can re-lend them at will, to sell covered calls. That trade sells the rally. Since its July 2025 buy, on days $BTC rose 3%+, $DJT rose 1.8%. On 3%+ down days it fell 3.6%. My call: $DJT lags $BTC through Dec 9.
Bar chart: average one-session move since July 21 2025 on days bitcoin moved 3% or more. On 29 bitcoin up days bitcoin averaged +5.0% and Trump Media (DJT) +1.8%. On 29 bitcoin down days bitcoin averaged -5.0% and DJT -3.6%. DJT took 73% of the big drops and 37% of the big gains. Source: Yahoo Finance DJT, Coinbase BTC-USD, TMTG 10-Q for Sep 30 2026.

ALT Bar chart: average one-session move since July 21 2025 on days bitcoin moved 3% or more. On 29 bitcoin up days bitcoin averaged +5.0% and Trump Media (DJT) +1.8%. On 29 bitcoin down days bitcoin averaged -5.0% and DJT -3.6%. DJT took 73% of the big drops and 37% of the big gains. Source: Yahoo Finance DJT, Coinbase BTC-USD, TMTG 10-Q for Sep 30 2026.

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Buying the $GLD dip after a hot CPI has been early. Gold fell 2.6% on 10 Nov as the 10-year jumped 13bp (2:28pm ET). On the 21 days since $GLD listed that it fell 2%+ while the 10-year rose 10bp+, it was lower 10 sessions later 15 times, vs 44% of all such windows. Bearish $GLD into 24 Nov; a close back above $379.53 says the dip-buyers were right.
Bar chart: share of episodes where GLD was lower 10 sessions after a 2%+ one-day drop. When the 10-year Treasury yield rose 10bp or more the same day: 71% (n=21). When it rose 8bp or more: 59% (n=34). Any GLD -2% day: 50% (n=120). Dashed line: any 10-session window, 44%. Today GLD was -2.6% and the 10-year +13bp at 2:28pm ET on 10 Nov. Source: Yahoo Finance GLD and ^TNX daily closes, Nov 2004 to 9 Nov 2026, episodes 10+ sessions apart.

ALT Bar chart: share of episodes where GLD was lower 10 sessions after a 2%+ one-day drop. When the 10-year Treasury yield rose 10bp or more the same day: 71% (n=21). When it rose 8bp or more: 59% (n=34). Any GLD -2% day: 50% (n=120). Dashed line: any 10-session window, 44%. Today GLD was -2.6% and the 10-year +13bp at 2:28pm ET on 10 Nov. Source: Yahoo Finance GLD and ^TNX daily closes, Nov 2004 to 9 Nov 2026, episodes 10+ sessions apart.

Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) profile pictureCoin Bureau
@coinbureauNov 10
BREAKING: Markets fall after US inflation comes in HIGHER than expected. Bitcoin -2.3% Nasdaq 100 futures -1.52% S&P 500 futures -0.86% Gold -2.4%
Image from Coin Bureau (@coinbureau)
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Hiding from the chip crash in $XLU is the crowded trade, and history says it lags $SPY into early December. Utilities beat the S&P by 9 points in the month to Monday. Since 1998, after an 8-point month like that, $XLU outran $SPY the next month 34% of the time vs 48% for any month (44 cases). All 12 cuts of the test agree. The hiding place becomes the laggard.
Bar chart: share of episodes since Dec 1998 where the utilities ETF XLU beat SPY over the next 21 trading days, after XLU had beaten SPY over the prior 21 days. Beat by 6+ points: 40% (n=75). By 8+ points: 34% (n=44). By 10+ points: 29% (n=24). Dashed line: 48% for any month. XLU is 9.1 points ahead of SPY over the 21 days to the 9 Nov 2026 close. Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes.

ALT Bar chart: share of episodes since Dec 1998 where the utilities ETF XLU beat SPY over the next 21 trading days, after XLU had beaten SPY over the prior 21 days. Beat by 6+ points: 40% (n=75). By 8+ points: 34% (n=44). By 10+ points: 29% (n=24). Dashed line: 48% for any month. XLU is 9.1 points ahead of SPY over the 21 days to the 9 Nov 2026 close. Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes.

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Anyone shorting $TLT for a snapback on Waller's December-hike talk is fighting the tape's best odds. The 10-year yield just fell 36bp in 20 sessions to 4.86%. Since 1968 that happened 33 times from 4%+ with the Fed hiking, and 25 times the yield was lower 21 sessions later, vs 46% of all hike-cycle months. Call: 10-year below 4.86% on 8 Dec. Bullish $TLT.
Bar chart: after the 10-year Treasury yield fell 35bp or more in 20 sessions from 4% or higher, it was lower 21 sessions later in 76% of 33 episodes while the Fed was hiking and 62% of 90 episodes in any regime, against a 49% base rate. Now: down 36bp to 4.86%. Source: FRED DGS10 and DFF daily, 1962 to 6 Nov 2026.

ALT Bar chart: after the 10-year Treasury yield fell 35bp or more in 20 sessions from 4% or higher, it was lower 21 sessions later in 76% of 33 episodes while the Fed was hiking and 62% of 90 episodes in any regime, against a 49% base rate. Now: down 36bp to 4.86%. Source: FRED DGS10 and DFF daily, 1962 to 6 Nov 2026.

Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) profile pictureNick Timiraos
@NickTimiraosNov 10
Fed governor Chris Waller said he's leaning toward supporting a December rate increase even if Tuesday’s inflation report shows improvement—and if it doesn't, then he says a 50 bps move should be on the table.
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$VIX fell 20%+ in a day twice in four sessions. The only other time since 1990 was October 2008. $SPX fell 12.8% the month after. After any single 20% drop, $VIX climbed back 10% within a month in 12 of 22. Monday close: 19.92. My call: $VIX closes above 22 by Dec 9.
Barcode chart of every session since 1990 when the VIX closed 20% or more below the prior close: 24 sessions out of 9,284. Two pairs fell inside one week, marked white: Oct 13 and Oct 20 2008, and Nov 4 and Nov 9 2026. Source: Cboe VIX daily closes via Yahoo Finance, cross-checked on FRED VIXCLS.

ALT Barcode chart of every session since 1990 when the VIX closed 20% or more below the prior close: 24 sessions out of 9,284. Two pairs fell inside one week, marked white: Oct 13 and Oct 20 2008, and Nov 4 and Nov 9 2026. Source: Cboe VIX daily closes via Yahoo Finance, cross-checked on FRED VIXCLS.

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a 100-week EMA is an exponential moving average of weekly prices, roughly a two-year trend line that weights recent weeks most. a touch of it is the first real test of a long uptrend. Broadcom closed the week of 2 Nov at $293.69, about 5% under its EMA at $309.11. it bounced off that line all four prior times, in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025, rising 19% to 132% over the next six months. four for four reads like a rule. it does not travel: since 2006, 71 first touches across 30 megacaps, using @YahooFinance weekly adjusted closes, finished higher six months later 64% of the time, against 68% for any week. weeks that closed below the line did the same, 64% from 28 cases. in the 2022 bear market, 4 of 10 touches finished higher. the panel uses today's megacaps, survivors, which tilts it bullish, and it still lands under an ordinary week. no position on Broadcom, finding only. thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2…
No SPY call into CPI after VIX closed at 19.9 | Daily Digits

No SPY call into CPI after VIX closed at 19.9 | Daily Digits

Monday's work ran across the S&P before CPI, Broadcom, ether against bitcoin, bitcoin leverage and the stock-bitcoin split. Where each one pays:

thedailydigits.com
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Dip buyers in $AVGO at its 100-week EMA are paying for a pattern that does not travel. It bounced all 4 prior times. Across 30 megacaps since 2006, 71 first touches after 2+ years above left the stock lower 6 months later 36% of the time, vs 32% for any week. Not support into May. teapawt.net/TrendSpider/status/211…
Bar chart: share of 100-week EMA touches followed by a higher price 26 weeks later. Broadcom's 4 prior touches: 100% (n=4). All 71 megacap first touches after 2+ years above: 64% (n=70). Weekly close below the EMA: 64% (n=28). 2022 bear market touches: 40% (n=10). Dashed line: 68% of all weeks were higher 26 weeks later. Source: Yahoo weekly adjusted closes, 30 US megacaps, 2000-2026.

ALT Bar chart: share of 100-week EMA touches followed by a higher price 26 weeks later. Broadcom's 4 prior touches: 100% (n=4). All 71 megacap first touches after 2+ years above: 64% (n=70). Weekly close below the EMA: 64% (n=28). 2022 bear market touches: 40% (n=10). Dashed line: 68% of all weeks were higher 26 weeks later. Source: Yahoo weekly adjusted closes, 30 US megacaps, 2000-2026.

TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) profile pictureTrendSpider
@TrendSpiderNov 9
You can count on one hand the number of times Broadcom $AVGO has visited its 100-week EMA in the last decade Right now is one of those times 👀
Image from TrendSpider (@TrendSpider)
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nvidia's 20 november $185 straddle cost $20.90 at friday's close, per @Cboe delayed quotes. that is 11.2% of the $186.64 share price, after an 18.6% slide over 20 sessions. since 2010 the stock moved more than that in 18 of 67 reports. the median move was 7.1%, so the price is rich against the modern record. the buyers still have a case: before 2010, reports with the stock down 15% going in beat this price 6 times in 10. a 20 november close outside $165.74 to $207.54 pays the straddle. inside it, the sellers keep the premium.
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thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2…
Energy stocks fell as far as oil, twice their usual share

Energy stocks fell as far as oil, twice their usual share

Bullish XLE to 8 December, bearish the S&P and bitcoin into early December. Energy stocks fell as far as oil, twice their usual share. See the calls.

thedailydigits.com
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Coinbase is now a chartered trust bank. $COIN is still the cheapest against bitcoin since May 2023. The last 6 times that ratio set a 1 year low, $COIN lagged $BTC a month later 5 times. My call: the charter changes nothing, $COIN underperforms $BTC from today's close to Dec 8.
Line chart: one Coinbase (COIN) share's closing price in thousandths of a bitcoin, Jan 2022 to Nov 6 2026. It is 1.78 now, the lowest since the May 2023 low of 1.67, and down from 5.2 at the April 2021 listing. Source: Yahoo Finance COIN closes divided by Coinbase BTC-USD daily closes.

ALT Line chart: one Coinbase (COIN) share's closing price in thousandths of a bitcoin, Jan 2022 to Nov 6 2026. It is 1.78 now, the lowest since the May 2023 low of 1.67, and down from 5.2 at the April 2021 listing. Source: Yahoo Finance COIN closes divided by Coinbase BTC-USD daily closes.

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Tuesday's CPI hedge is the overpaid side of $SPY. $VIX closed Friday at 25.6, pricing a 1.6% day. On 41 CPI days since 1994 with VIX 20+ and $SPY down 4%+ in a month (it is -5.6% now), it beat its VIX-implied move just 10 times, median 1.26% vs 1.78% priced. Call: $SPY closes Tue 10 Nov within 1.6% of Monday's close.
Bar chart: share of CPI release days since 1994 where SPY's close-to-close move beat the VIX-implied one-day move. All CPI days 22% (n=390), VIX 20+ 24% (n=156), VIX 22-30 27% (n=84), VIX 20+ with SPY down 4%+ over 20 sessions 24% (n=41), versus 20% on any day.

ALT Bar chart: share of CPI release days since 1994 where SPY's close-to-close move beat the VIX-implied one-day move. All CPI days 22% (n=390), VIX 20+ 24% (n=156), VIX 22-30 27% (n=84), VIX 20+ with SPY down 4%+ over 20 sessions 24% (n=41), versus 20% on any day.

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Dumping $BTC because stocks ripped without it is the wrong trade. Sellers are overpaying for a crash. Since 2013 $SPX rose 1%+ while bitcoin fell on 145 days. 3 weeks later $BTC was up 57% of the time vs 55% normally. 20%+ drops hit 13% vs 12%. teapawt.net/PeterSchiff/status/211…
Bar chart: share of days with BTC higher 21 days later, after the S&P 500 rose while bitcoin fell the same day, 2013 to Nov 8 2026. S&P up 1%+: 57% (n=145). Up 1.5%+: 48% (n=48). Up 2%+: 56% (n=18). Any 3-week window: 55%. Source: Coin Metrics, Yahoo Finance.

ALT Bar chart: share of days with BTC higher 21 days later, after the S&P 500 rose while bitcoin fell the same day, 2013 to Nov 8 2026. S&P up 1%+: 57% (n=145). Up 1.5%+: 48% (n=48). Up 2%+: 56% (n=18). Any 3-week window: 55%. Source: Coin Metrics, Yahoo Finance.

Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) profile picturePeter Schiff
@PeterSchiffNov 9
In case Bitcoiners haven't noticed, the stock market is up big today, including tech and precious metals mining stocks, plus gold and silver. Yet Bitcoin is down again, trading below key support at $75K. There's a short window before the crash. Make sure to sell before it closes.
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$BTC longs are still paying to stay long. 7-day funding averaged 0.0087 while the Coinbase Premium was negative every day. Price is down 9% in 30 days. Open interest is up just 1.2%. Nobody is adding. They just are not leaving. Our Crowding Score: 2 of 5. It is now a free CryptoQuant dashboard under The Daily Digits. The crowd is holding, not adding. Data: @cryptoquant_com
CryptoQuant dashboard panel: this week's Bitcoin Crowding Score, 2 of 5, as of 8 Nov 2026. Estimated Leverage Ratio 0.249, no point. Funding 7-day average 0.0087, one point. Open interest up 1.2% in 30 days while price fell 9%, no point. Taker Buy Sell Ratio 7-day average 0.98, no point. Coinbase Premium negative all week while funding positive, one point.

ALT CryptoQuant dashboard panel: this week's Bitcoin Crowding Score, 2 of 5, as of 8 Nov 2026. Estimated Leverage Ratio 0.249, no point. Funding 7-day average 0.0087, one point. Open interest up 1.2% in 30 days while price fell 9%, no point. Taker Buy Sell Ratio 7-day average 0.98, no point. Coinbase Premium negative all week while funding positive, one point.

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cryptoquant.com/community/da…
Bitcoin Leverage Crowding Score: Funding, Open Interest, Liquidations & CME Options | CryptoQuant

Bitcoin Leverage Crowding Score: Funding, Open Interest, Liquidations & CME Options | CryptoQuant

Customize what you see with our dashboard.

cryptoquant.com
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Goldman says $NVDA $300. The number I'd watch is the 22% drop from the Oct 6 record. Since 2017 Nvidia has had 10 fast drops of 18%+ off a record, and was higher a month later in 8. The misses were Oct 2018 and Jan 2022. My call: $NVDA closes above Friday's $186.64 on Dec 8. teapawt.net/DeItaone/status/211974…
Bar chart: Nvidia's return over the next 21 trading days after each of 10 times since 2017 it first closed 18% or more below a record set within the prior two months. Higher in 8: Apr 2024 +24.4%, Jul 2024 +21.1%, Oct 2023 +19.6%, Apr 2020 +16.3%, Mar 2021 +13.1%, Jan 2025 +10.9%, Mar 2017 +3.2%, Jun 2026 +2.3%. Lower in 2: Jan 2022 -7.9%, Oct 2018 -12.5%. Now down 22% from the Oct 6 2026 record. Source: Yahoo Finance NVDA daily closes, cross-checked on Nasdaq.com.

ALT Bar chart: Nvidia's return over the next 21 trading days after each of 10 times since 2017 it first closed 18% or more below a record set within the prior two months. Higher in 8: Apr 2024 +24.4%, Jul 2024 +21.1%, Oct 2023 +19.6%, Apr 2020 +16.3%, Mar 2021 +13.1%, Jan 2025 +10.9%, Mar 2017 +3.2%, Jun 2026 +2.3%. Lower in 2: Jan 2022 -7.9%, Oct 2018 -12.5%. Now down 22% from the Oct 6 2026 record. Source: Yahoo Finance NVDA daily closes, cross-checked on Nasdaq.com.

*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) profile picture*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaoneNov 9
GOLDMAN SACHS DEFENDS NVIDIA WITH $300 PRICE TARGET Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy rating on Nvidia ($NVDA ) with a $300 price target, calling the stock's risk/reward attractive following the recent AI-sector selloff. Analyst James Schneider expects Nvidia's near-term fundamentals to exceed Wall Street estimates, with shares trading at approximately 11 times projected 2027 earnings. Key investor concerns include data-center power availability through 2028, AI infrastructure financing and the sustainability of AI demand.
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