Crypto and macro, every morning.
NYC
Joined April 2014
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The Daily Digits retweeted
Ten years ago everyone on crypto twitter was bullish and the bankers said it was all a scam. Now everyone on crypto twitter says it’s all a scam and the bankers are bullish
The Daily Digits retweeted
Rational Dissent Episode 010. Will the Bond Market End Humanity?
With the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a 16-year high of 5.20%, is this a return to historical normal—or the start of a market break?
Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc.
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Chapters
00:00 - Introduction & Market Overview
03:01 - Analyzing the Week's Bond Market Frenzy
07:09 - Shifts in FOMC Rate Expectations
08:27 - Economic Growth and Potential GDP
13:30 - Historical Context: 5,000 Years of Interest Rates
17:04 - Economic Resilience vs. Market Fears
18:38 - Drivers of Yields: Growth, Energy, Policy, and Deficits
23:03 - The Fed's Dilemma Heading into October
26:14 - Bond Math and Are Yields Near a Peak?
29:56 - Closing Question: Does the Fed Lead or Follow the Market?
The Daily Digits retweeted
Well gosh that's weird. There's supposed to be all of these extra jobs now since we deported the illegals. Did we forget to check and let them hide those in their bags on the way out? Or is Tom Human just a fucking moron?
The Daily Digits retweeted
I do think branded trading vaults offering attractive yields to under-served assets such as BTC/ETH/XRP have a brighter future
For example, this vault is managed by @monarq_mgmt, which is backed by @FalconXGlobal and powered by @upshift_fi
> Users deposit XRP into the vault without KYC
> Monarq borrows stables against XRP
> Monarq uses stables to execute trading strategies on cex, dex, and options venues as well as delta neutral strategies
This type of vault takes real trading acumen and alpha generation to manage. BTC/XRP are "yield-hunger" assets compare to stablecoins as they have no native yield. 4% APY can be considered as very attractive.
They have been doubling their TVL every week since launch.
While attending @Morpho's incredible Vault Summit at NYSE 2 weeks ago, a LP with 10-fig allocation complained about how vaults today are mostly doing very similar & simple things:
> lending against cbBTC, WETH, wstETH etc blue-chip assets
> the top 12 markets on morpho accounts for >80% of total active loans
In short, there's not much complex risk to curate. This LP is considering going directly to Moprho markets as lender
I think the future of vaults is either to
a) expand to more exotic trading strategies across cex, dex, options, perps, and options venues or
b) if more public credits and yield-bearing collateral types take-off on-chain
For crypto-backed loans there's little to curate
The Daily Digits retweeted
For years, the only way to earn on XRP was handing it to a CeFi desk.
The Monarq XRP Yield Vault brings those desk strategies onchain via FXRP on @FlareNetworks, curated by @monarq_mgmt.
7.63M FXRP deposited in the first 4 weeks.
The Daily Digits retweeted
Monarq XRP Yield vault update:
Deposit caps have increased from 5M to 7.5M fXRP.
The @monarq_mgmt XRP Yield Vault allocates XRP across three uncorrelated strategies: institutional options and volatility-selling, basis and funding-rate capture, and on-chain @FlareNetworks DeFi yield.
The Daily Digits retweeted
Live now: the @FlareNetworks × Monarq XRP Yield Vault, powered by @upshift_fi
A multi-strategy $FXRP $XRP yield product spanning CeFi + DeFi, built for scalable, risk-adjusted returns.
Vault: app.upshift.finance/pools/14…
The Daily Digits retweeted
“RWAs are a natural expansion for us because that’s where both the liquidity and institutional capital are moving,” said William Purdy, director of business development at Monarq Asset Management. - via @Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The Daily Digits retweeted
Crypto Equities & Volatility Update from Monarq’s Equity Derivatives Desk.
A few things stand out right now across $SPX, $BTC, and $IBIT: weekend risk is still being priced aggressively, realized vol is leaking outside traditional market hours, and ETF-related flows are increasingly shaping the surface.
The Daily Digits retweeted
Pineapple Financial $PAPL has engaged @monarq_mgmt to lead the yield strategy and portfolio construction for its $INJ Digital Asset Treasury
Monarq participated in Pineapple's $100M private placement and now expands its role to oversee allocation and yield optimization
The Daily Digits retweeted
Literally everyone over the last 12 months:
"Markets are so shitty. Literally worst bear market ever."
Meanwhile, during that exact same 12 months:
Morpho RWAs up 33x
Prediction market volume up 17x
Perp DEX volume up 4x
Stablecoin active addresses almost doubled
All while the Genius Act passed and the Clarity Act looks more likely than ever, probably the two biggest regulatory tailwinds and door openers for insitutional money this industry has ever seen.
But sure, super bearish market.
Feel free to sell.
The Daily Digits retweeted
Some notable dislocations in crypto equities right now.
• $BTDR screens as the cheapest public miner by EV/MW
• $COIN short interest near extreme levels
• $IBIT options skew at a 2-year high
• Realized volatility > implied across several crypto equities
Highlights from this week’s Monarq Crypto Equities & Vol Review. 🧵👇
The Daily Digits retweeted
Monarq Asset Management has been shortlisted for “Bitcoin Strategy Fund of the Year (Over $50M): Sustained Excellence” at the @Hedgeweek Global Digital Assets Awards.
Thank you to our investors, partners, and team for the continued support. Final results announced June 9.
#Bitcoin #DigitalAssets #HedgeFund
The Daily Digits retweeted
Payment stocks are dumping because AI agents will only use crypto.
Crypto is dumping because quantum computers will steal it.
Quantum stocks are dumping because analysts realise it’s still decades away.
The Daily Digits retweeted
JUNE 2028.
The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation.
What happened?
citriniresearch.com/p/2028gi…
The Daily Digits retweeted
On-chain yield is maturing. Congrats to @Zircuit on launching Zircuit Finance. Monarq is pleased to support a more structured, institutional approach from day one.
The Daily Digits retweeted
100% of the time 💯
Since 1942, buying $SPX on Midterm-Election Day (MTE) generated a median return of +15.2% through June 30 of the following year (7 months forward).
Never, not once, ever was there a negative return in the forward 7-month period.
World War II, Vietnam War, 1970s lost decade, Dotcom Bubble, GFC, all macro-time periods included.
$SPY $ES_F $QQQ $DIA $GLD $BTC $VOO $VIX $AAPL $NVDA $META $AMZN $TSLA $RUT $IWM
