Tim Gue (@TimGue1) header
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just farmers doing our best

Sussex
Joined July 2013
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Tim Gue retweeted
This Budget tells us something v important about the government’s direction for rural Britain. No reversal of the farm tax. The lifetime limit for Business Asset Disposal Relief is HALVED from £1m to £500,000, making retirement and succession potentially more expensive. Taxes on property income rise again. And the OBR itself now says the expected revenue from the APR/BPR changes is “particularly uncertain” because of the behavioural response. We can already see that behaviour. The CLA says 9 out of 10 of its members are cancelling investment. You cannot tax the transfer of productive businesses, make their disposal more expensive and then announce that you want “growth in every postcode”. British farms are productive capital. Food production is national infrastructure. This is a still a recipe for disinvestment.
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Chancellor John Healey could have reversed the financial punishment inflicted by his predecessor Rachel Reeves with the family farm tax. He failed to do so. Meanwhile, over 6,000 farming related businesses have closed since the IHT announcement in the 2024 Budget. #Budget2026
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This tidiness trope needs to stop, @BenGoldsmith because it distracts from the real reasons why hedgehogs are disappearing. Weather extremes are affecting their food supply (this year no slugs and worms gone deep due to drought). More on this later..1/9 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly5…
Go for a walk on almost any farm in Britain and ask yourself where a hedgehog might find food, water or shelter there. The rough edges, pockets of scrub, areas of unkempt long grass, piles of dead wood, marshy wet areas and ponds, all tidied away. There’s nowhere left for them.
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Winter wheat emerging - drilled speculatively as current price means a loss. Absolute madness. Almost nobody in Parliament understands the deep shit British farmers are in, through no fault of our own. It is all apocalyptically difficult right now.
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The decline of the hedgehog is mainly caused by the huge recent expansion of the badger population. In both time and place there is a strong negative correlation between badger numbers and hedgehog numbers. The scientific evidence that an increase in Mr Brock may well be the chief cause of Mrs Tiggywinkle’s demise is overwhelming. There’s the direct evidence – the hollowed-out prickle-bearing skins left behind after a badger eats a hedgehog. Only badgers can open a hedgehog after it rolls up in defence with prickles on the outside. Foxes and dogs cannot. Badger predation is often found to be the main cause of hedgehog death in studies in this country. There’s the timing evidence. The decline in hedgehogs coincided with the rise in badgers since the latter’s protection began in the 1970s and was strengthened in the 1990s. Anecdotally, there are clear-cut cases to show this is likely to be cause and effect, not coincidence. Kew Gardens had a thriving hedgehog population until the mid 1980s when badgers first arrived there. Today, says the Royal Botanic Gardens’ website, “Kew is teeming with badgers”. There are now more than 20 badger setts and hedgehogs are hardly ever seen, and if they are don’t last long. Habitat change and development cannot be the cause in Kew, because there has not been any. There’s the spatial evidence. Throughout England hedgehogs (great worm eaters) have vanished from worm-rich pastureland, where badgers thrive, and cling on only in suburban gardens and amenity grassland, where badgers so far have not penetrated much. Even here, as one study put it: “the probability of hedgehog occurrence in suburban habitats declined towards zero in areas of high badger density.” As a general rule, wherever badgers are present at a density higher than about one main sett every four square kilometres, hedgehogs are absent. In most of rural England, sett density is two or three times higher. There’s the behavioural evidence. Back in the 1990s, ecologists discovered that the smell of badgers alone is enough to deter hedgehogs from entering an area. And hedgehogs released into areas of excellent habitat high-tailed it out of there if they smelt badger. They do not wait to be eaten. There’s the international evidence. Sweden has also blamed its decline in hedgehogs on rising badger numbers. In the Netherlands, scientists reported this yearthat hedgehogs are now confined mostly to urban areas, despite roads and development, because of the spread of badgers in rural areas. There’s the experimental evidence, which is the clincher. The randomized badger control trials, carried out between 1998 and 2006 in 30 different parts of the country, provided an opportunity to see what happened to hedgehog numbers if badger numbers were reduced. In pasture land, where hedgehogs are mostly extinct, there was of course little effect. But in “amenity grassland” – parks, lawns, gardens, playing fields etc – there was a dramatic explosion in hedgehog numbers in those areas where badgers were culled: hedgehog density almost trebledfrom an average of 0.9 per hectare to 2.4 per hectare in just five years. By contrast in the control areas where no badgers were culled, the hedgehog density remained unchanged at 0.3 per hectare over the same period.  So we know one way to increase hedgehog numbers: reduce badger numbers. No other approach has been demonstrated to have such an effect. Given that badgers are highly effective predators of bumble bees (those who try to study bumble bees complain that most of the nests they find get dug out and eaten by badgers) as well as of ground nesting birds, and that they carry bovine tuberculosis, there is little doubt that lower badger densities would be good for the ecology of the British countryside as well as for farming. There is nothing natural about the density at which badgers and foxes live in Britain today.
Go for a walk on almost any farm in Britain and ask yourself where a hedgehog might find food, water or shelter there. The rough edges, pockets of scrub, areas of unkempt long grass, piles of dead wood, marshy wet areas and ponds, all tidied away. There’s nowhere left for them.
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“The effects of the family farm tax means we will lose the farm. We are the smallest farm locally. But we have an inheritance tax liability of £600,000. That’s unsustainable for us.”
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So this post got me blocked. Can hedgehog and badger lovers not handle the truth? Watching videos of both species feeding on a lawn where there’s plentiful supplemental supplies isn’t natural behaviour. There’s a direct link between badger numbers and hedgehog pop density
I see, so Mrs prickles just left her jacket on the lawn because she was hot this summer?
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It has made the Government’s current warning seem tone death and senseless. And what is absurd is watching the same state systematically weaken the domestic producers who actually grow and process the food that would make the country more resilient in the first place, while imports fill the gap and rural businesses fold. You cannot talk seriously about national resilience and food security while watching the infrastructure that produces British food shrink year after year. The contradiction is obvious.
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At the Public Accounts Committee, I asked Harry Metcalfe, owner of Harry's Farm, what one thing the Government could do to support farmers. It has been made extremely clear that if Defra wants to be fit for purpose, it needs to start listening to our farmers. #Somerset #Devon
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Defra has now named reduced predator control as one of the major pressures facing open-nesting moorland birds. Its latest figures show England’s upland specialists have fallen 39% since 1994 and 20% in just five years. At Otterburn, reducing foxes and crows tripled breeding success, on average, for lapwing, golden plover, curlew, red grouse and meadow pipit. Habitat work is important. So is legal predator control. Read more - link is in replies:
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Only in the UK would we make energy so expensive that we can't produce fertiliser here any more and them impose a carbon border tax on imports. 70% of fert comes from the EU, which won't have a carbon tax. But 30% would, which will likely increase demand and cost for EU fert.
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Tim Gue retweeted
Replying to @DanNeidle
The whole capital taxes regime needs modernising. Both IHT and CGT aren’t fit for purpose today. They are largely policies created in the 70’s. Just need brave enough politicians to admit that and stop tinkering to raise the odd billion.
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I have been harping on about the repercussions of our deer over population for years, largely in the context of hedgerow and woodland damage. Now it's as a TB vector. It's now time for serious action...and no, the solution isn't wolves. fwi.co.uk/news/vets-call-for…
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British beef, milk, lamb and veg do not arrive by magic. They arrive because someone was up before dawn, walking stock through fields that had already burned brown, calculating whether the winter silage would last, and still making payroll when the harvest came in short. This year has been one of the hardest in living memory for many of them. Summer 2026 brought the hottest conditions on record and a prolonged drought. Grass stopped growing. Dairy farms in the West Country and elsewhere had to break open clamps meant for winter and buy in feed; one Wiltshire family put the extra cost above £100,000, plus lost milk yield. Cereal yields collapsed in the worst-hit areas - wheat down by half on some Gloucestershire farms, spring barley and beans more than 50% lower across parts of the South West. National figures point to one of the lowest cereal harvests on record, with wheat alone estimated hundreds of millions of pounds down in value and livestock producers facing tens of millions more just to replace missing forage. Straw was scarce. Water for irrigation ran short. Farmers described it as soul-destroying and the hardest summer in a generation. On top of the weather came disease. Bluetongue (BTV-3) produced the worst season yet, with more than 2,200 cases recorded and the virus reaching further north, including into Scotland for the first time. Sheep and cattle needed constant checking; fallen-stock costs rose; movement and trading became more complicated. Warmer conditions have helped the midges that spread it. Money has been tight at the same time. Input costs - feed, fertiliser, energy, fuel - have squeezed margins for years. Recent surveys found 87% of farmers saying those costs significantly hit profitability, more than a quarter reporting a loss or break-even, and many others clearing only 1–5%. Average farm incomes after poor seasons have been low. Cashflow is described as at crisis point on some holdings: money that should have gone into next year’s seed, fertiliser or replacement stock has already been spent keeping animals fed. Policy has added another layer. Changes to agricultural and business property relief for inheritance tax, due from April 2026, were partially softened after tractor protests (the full-relief threshold rose to £2.5 million, or higher for couples). Even so, a Country Land and Business Association survey found nearly nine in ten rural family businesses had paused investment - machinery, reservoirs, diversification - because they still expect bills they cannot meet from cash. Some are deliberately shrinking or devaluing holdings. Asset-rich and cash-poor remains the classic farm problem: land and stock look valuable on paper, yet selling a quarter or more of the farm is what many say would be required to pay the tax. Wider policy uncertainty (schemes, trade, environmental rules) is cited by 86% as damaging their ability to plan. Only a small minority express confidence that Britain can secure its own food supply long-term; around two in five have questioned whether they will still be farming in a decade. Trade pressure sits underneath it all. Cheaper imports produced to different standards continue to set the price, so a short domestic harvest does not automatically mean a better return at the farm gate. None of this is abstract. It is early starts, late finishes, decisions about which animals to keep and which crops are no longer worth drilling, and families trying to hand something viable to the next generation while the weather, the disease risk and the balance sheet all move against them. Next time the label says “British”, it is worth remembering the people who produced it - through a drought that halved harvests, a disease outbreak that demanded daily vigilance, and costs and tax rules that have left many wondering how long they can keep going.
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We Conservatives will abolish Natural England and the Environment Agency. Far too much taxpayers’ money is being wasted on dysfunctional quangos that deliver poor results. Natural England stopped 160,000 homes from being built through nutrient neutrality regulations, yet imposed a £700 million ‘fish disco’ at Hinkley Point C that will save just one salmon every 12 years… The Environment Agency has been able to step back from its flood prevention work despite continuing to receive taxpayers’ money to carry it out. Madness! We Conservatives will abolish them because of their track record of red tape, waste and dysfunction.
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Tim Gue retweeted
The latest top 10 newly evaluated genomic Holstein females!🐄🥇 Check out the top 1000 on our Dairy Breeding website ➡ bit.ly/4tctYSU
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Good. The EA and NE are strangling rural businesses. Setup to be an advisor or regulator, they now see themselves as the sole arbitrator of the environment. Setting unrealistic targets and creating a reduction in investment and growth in UK agriculture. They offer nothing.
🚨 NEW: The Tories have announced they would abolish Natural England and the Environment Agency
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Nice to have the #dukeofedinburghawards back on the farm again 😡
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Markus Campbell-Savours, MP for Penrith and Solway, lost the Labour Whip last December for voting against government proposals to change the family farm tax. But kudos to him, he’s continued to campaign against inheritance tax on family farms. He has put principles over party.
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Spot on: “as a starter” we need to ditch the awful family farm tax, once and for all. The idea this issue had gone away was fantasy. If the government wants to show it’s serious about a rural reset, abolishing this blatant wrong would be a welcome start.newsandstar.co.uk/news/26596…
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