Pediatric Dentist 🦷 | Business Owner | Investor | Daily posts on index funds, business lessons learned the hard way & sports cards. Not financial advice.
Joined May 2021
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I spend a lot of time telling people to buy index funds.
I also pick individual stocks.
Those two things aren’t contradictory.
My ETFs are the foundation of my portfolio.
But if I’m going to take the additional risk of owning an individual company, I have one expectation:
It needs to outperform the S&P 500.
Otherwise, why am I doing the extra work?
I’ve had some good ones:
$PLTR at $10, +1,582%
$META at $95, 615%
$LRCX at $61, +345%
$SHOP at $29, +336%
$CRWD at $64, +283%
$PANW at $149, +152%
$NBIS at $88, +150%
$ASML at $690, +136%
I’ve had misses too. And I’ll have more.
That’s stock picking.
But there are 5 companies I own today that I believe can outperform the S&P 500 between now and 2030.
Here’s my thesis on each, and what could make me wrong. 🧵
My first year owning a dental practice, nobody warned me about the $40,000 flood.
I had a budget for payroll. Supplies. Rent. Equipment.
I did not have a budget for our basement flooding.
More than $40,000 in damages. Two days of lost production. And a building full of employees who still needed to be paid.
We had insurance. Thankfully.
What nobody tells you is that having insurance and having the money in your bank account are two very different things.
We had to pay for the cleanup, repairs, and other services upfront.
The insurance reimbursement took well over a month.
Meanwhile, payroll didn’t stop. Neither did the other bills.
That was my introduction to the difference between profitability and liquidity.
You can have a profitable business and still find yourself scrambling for cash.
It’s one of the reasons I’m so particular about maintaining cash reserves today.
Owning a business taught me something no investing book ever could.
The expense you didn’t plan for is usually the one that teaches you the most.
Business owners, what was your version of the $40,000 flood?
Part 1: Everyone keeps asking me if AI is in a bubble.
I think they are asking about the wrong market.
Look at the public AI stocks. Nvidia $NVDA, Alphabet $GOOGL, Microsoft $MSFT, Meta $META. Real revenue. Real profits. They trade around 22 to 25 times forward earnings, which is basically in line with the Nasdaq average. At the dot com peak, Cisco $CSCO traded around 200 times earnings.
That is not a bubble. That is a market arguing about price every single day, out in the open.
Now look at the private AI market.
OpenAI was valued at $852 billion in March. It is now raising another $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation. Its annualized revenue is around $50 billion, and it is still unprofitable.
Anthropic raised at $965 billion in May. It is now reportedly heading for an IPO at $1.5 to $2 trillion.
Those prices are not built on earnings. They are built on a story about what earnings might look like someday.
Here is the part that matters. Private markets do not have a daily price. Nobody marks you down 20% on a bad Tuesday. A valuation gets agreed on once a year and everybody nods and calls it a number. So a bubble can grow quietly, without anyone ever having to admit it.
Public markets argue. Private markets agree.
And next month, Anthropic goes public.
That is when the private market story has to survive contact with a real price, set by real buyers and sellers, every single day.
What happens if the public market says no?
Check out Part 3 👇
xitter.cf/tinytoothdds/status/21…
Part 3: The best thing that could happen to the AI trade is for Anthropic to get knocked around a little after its IPO.
I mean that.
OpenAI and Anthropic going public is the moment we finally get clarity on the private market. Right now those valuations are marks on paper, agreed on by a small group of insiders once a year. Once they trade publicly, every investor on earth gets a vote, every single day.
And I think Anthropic is going to struggle when that happens.
It is reportedly heading to market at $1.5 to $2 trillion, on a business that only recently reported a small profit on an adjusted basis. The public market is going to slap a real multiple on that, and the argument over what that multiple should be will be loud and messy.
That is not a bad thing. That is price discovery doing its job.
The market just absorbed SpaceX $SPCX at a rich valuation. That was the warm up. The question now is whether it accepts another one, and at what price.
Here is why I think a messy Anthropic debut is good for the AI bull market, not bad for it. A repriced Anthropic gives every AI stock a cleaner benchmark. Real prices replace private marks. Risk gets priced honestly instead of hidden in a funding round nobody can check.
A bull market built on repriced reality lasts a lot longer than one built on numbers nobody has tested yet.
So bring on the difficult multiples. The AI trade does not need protection from scrutiny.
It needs scrutiny to survive
Part 3: The best thing that could happen to the AI trade is for Anthropic to get knocked around a little after its IPO.
I mean that.
OpenAI and Anthropic going public is the moment we finally get clarity on the private market. Right now those valuations are marks on paper, agreed on by a small group of insiders once a year. Once they trade publicly, every investor on earth gets a vote, every single day.
And I think Anthropic is going to struggle when that happens.
It is reportedly heading to market at $1.5 to $2 trillion, on a business that only recently reported a small profit on an adjusted basis. The public market is going to slap a real multiple on that, and the argument over what that multiple should be will be loud and messy.
That is not a bad thing. That is price discovery doing its job.
The market just absorbed SpaceX $SPCX at a rich valuation. That was the warm up. The question now is whether it accepts another one, and at what price.
Here is why I think a messy Anthropic debut is good for the AI bull market, not bad for it. A repriced Anthropic gives every AI stock a cleaner benchmark. Real prices replace private marks. Risk gets priced honestly instead of hidden in a funding round nobody can check.
A bull market built on repriced reality lasts a lot longer than one built on numbers nobody has tested yet.
So bring on the difficult multiples. The AI trade does not need protection from scrutiny.
It needs scrutiny to survive
Check out Part 2 👇
xitter.cf/tinytoothdds/status/21…
Part 2: The dot com crash was the best thing that ever happened to AI.
I know that sounds backwards. Hear me out.
The Nasdaq fell almost 80% from its 2000 peak to its 2002 bottom. Companies with no revenue, no profits, and a website were worth billions one year and nothing the next. An entire generation of investors got scarred.
And that scar became a guardrail.
After the crash came real rules. Sarbanes Oxley in 2002 made executives personally sign off on their financials. Analysts could not just cheerlead stocks their banks were selling anymore. Accounting got scrutinized in a way it never had been before.
But the bigger guardrail was cultural. Investors stopped accepting stories in place of numbers. Show me the revenue. Show me the profit. Show me the cash flow. That skepticism never left.
Now look at the AI buildout today. Hyperscalers are projected to spend more than $500 billion on capital expenditures this year. That sounds insane until you ask the question 2000 taught everyone to ask: who is paying for it?
Profitable companies, out of real cash flow. Not startups funded by debt and dreams.
That is the difference. The dot com buildout was financed on promises. The AI buildout is financed on profits. And it is happening under the watch of investors who still remember what a real bubble looks like, because they lived through one.
Bubbles do not teach lessons while they are inflating. They teach them after they pop.
We are spending that lesson right now. And that is exactly why this boom might last longer than most people expect.
Part 2: The dot com crash was the best thing that ever happened to AI.
I know that sounds backwards. Hear me out.
The Nasdaq fell almost 80% from its 2000 peak to its 2002 bottom. Companies with no revenue, no profits, and a website were worth billions one year and nothing the next. An entire generation of investors got scarred.
And that scar became a guardrail.
After the crash came real rules. Sarbanes Oxley in 2002 made executives personally sign off on their financials. Analysts could not just cheerlead stocks their banks were selling anymore. Accounting got scrutinized in a way it never had been before.
But the bigger guardrail was cultural. Investors stopped accepting stories in place of numbers. Show me the revenue. Show me the profit. Show me the cash flow. That skepticism never left.
Now look at the AI buildout today. Hyperscalers are projected to spend more than $500 billion on capital expenditures this year. That sounds insane until you ask the question 2000 taught everyone to ask: who is paying for it?
Profitable companies, out of real cash flow. Not startups funded by debt and dreams.
That is the difference. The dot com buildout was financed on promises. The AI buildout is financed on profits. And it is happening under the watch of investors who still remember what a real bubble looks like, because they lived through one.
Bubbles do not teach lessons while they are inflating. They teach them after they pop.
We are spending that lesson right now. And that is exactly why this boom might last longer than most people expect.
If you missed Part 1, check it out here 👇
xitter.cf/tinytoothdds/status/21…
Part 1: Everyone keeps asking me if AI is in a bubble.
I think they are asking about the wrong market.
Look at the public AI stocks. Nvidia $NVDA, Alphabet $GOOGL, Microsoft $MSFT, Meta $META. Real revenue. Real profits. They trade around 22 to 25 times forward earnings, which is basically in line with the Nasdaq average. At the dot com peak, Cisco $CSCO traded around 200 times earnings.
That is not a bubble. That is a market arguing about price every single day, out in the open.
Now look at the private AI market.
OpenAI was valued at $852 billion in March. It is now raising another $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation. Its annualized revenue is around $50 billion, and it is still unprofitable.
Anthropic raised at $965 billion in May. It is now reportedly heading for an IPO at $1.5 to $2 trillion.
Those prices are not built on earnings. They are built on a story about what earnings might look like someday.
Here is the part that matters. Private markets do not have a daily price. Nobody marks you down 20% on a bad Tuesday. A valuation gets agreed on once a year and everybody nods and calls it a number. So a bubble can grow quietly, without anyone ever having to admit it.
Public markets argue. Private markets agree.
And next month, Anthropic goes public.
That is when the private market story has to survive contact with a real price, set by real buyers and sellers, every single day.
What happens if the public market says no?
YOU KNOW WHAT HAPPENS NEXT WHEN JIM CRAMER TURNS BEARISH, RIGHT??
$AVGO
Everyone is looking for the next big AI infrastructure play.
Meanwhile, how many people are paying attention to $GNRC?
Yes, Generac. The generator company.
AI data centers need reliable backup power, and Generac is becoming a serious supplier.
A few numbers caught my attention:
• Q2 commercial revenue +29% YoY
• $1.6B data center backlog as of July
• $2.4B in expected Amazon deliveries across 2027–28
• Positive earnings and free cash flow
The stock is also down roughly 37% from its June high.
At ~$187, I’m watching $181–185 for support, with $173–176 and $167–171 as potential deeper buying zones.
Risks? Manufacturing execution, margins, residential weakness, and whether 2027 earnings justify the valuation.
Earnings are Wednesday.
I’m not calling a bottom. I’m trying to understand whether the market is properly valuing what this business is becoming.
$GNRC is firmly on my watchlist.
The more money I accumulate, the less interested I become in finding the next 10-bagger.
Ten years ago, I wanted investments that could change my life.
Today, I’m increasingly focused on protecting the life I’ve built.
It’s a strange transition when you realize that winning the game might require you to stop swinging for the fences.
I can’t wait to get my hands on a rookie card of one of my favorite Tar Heels since Tyler Hansbrough…Mr. @CalebWilson2025
Caleb Wilson has arrived:
30 points
14 rebounds
2 steals
0 turnovers
Man, this rookie class is so special. (via @realapp)
Sunday rule I've kept since 2012: no portfolio checking, no practice email until 7pm. Rest is a position too.
One of the most liberating things I’ve learned about investing:
The stock market has absolutely no idea who I am.
It doesn’t know my cost basis.
It doesn’t know how much research I’ve done.
It certainly doesn’t care that I think a stock is undervalued.
The sooner I accepted that, the better my decisions became.
Some people spend Saturday nights at bars.
Some go to concerts.
Some have actual social lives.
I spent mine looking at stock charts and wondering whether a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement was a reasonable entry point.
I’m sure this is exactly what my younger self envisioned.
I traded options from 2020 to 2023 without really knowing what I was doing.
2020 made me feel like a genius.

2021 had me hunting the next 10 bagger every week.

Then covered calls capped every winner and left me holding every loser.
The most expensive part wasn't the money. It was the 3 years I could have just been compounding.
What's the priciest lesson the market taught you? 👇
My son learned a painful lesson about personal finance this week.
He had enough money to buy a pack of trading cards. Or so he thought.
He forgot about sales tax. His immediate conclusion? Taxes are completely unnecessary.
He's 10 years old and already questioning the system. Wait until he discovers income taxes.
I feel like I’m the only person on the planet who rarely watches YouTube.
My kids watch it.
My friends watch it.
My family watches it.
Meanwhile, I couldn’t tell you the last time I voluntarily opened the app.
At this point, I’m starting to think I’m the weird one.
Please tell me I’m not alone.
The business keeps getting better. The stock keeps getting cheaper.
That is the interesting part of $SOFI right now.
Q2 revenue up 40% from a year ago. 15.8 million members, up 35%. $157 million in GAAP net income. $45.5 billion in deposits.
Meanwhile the stock is down about 55% from its 52 week high. It closed yesterday around $14.60.
I have watched SoFi grow way past the student loan refi company it started as. It is a real bank now, with real deposits funding real loans.
I am bullish on the business. That does not mean I am ignoring the price. If anything, the price is the opportunity.
Earnings land Tuesday, October 27. That is the next test.
Anyone else buying $SOFI at these levels?
I own $VOO so I can build wealth.
I own individual stocks so I can develop character.
Apparently, I still have a lot of character development ahead of me.
This baby has a mustache, a 401(k), and very strong opinions about property taxes.
Un video de un bebé con vello facial se ha vuelto viral, generando miles de reacciones. Los expertos recuerdan que cada caso debe evaluarse con un profesional de salud.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
El video parece modificado con IA según análisis de inconsistencias en el vello facial durante movimientos e iluminación artificial. No hay confirmación independiente de un caso médico real.
lakalle.bluradio.com/entretenimient…
metroecuador.com.ec/noticias/2026/…
imparcialoaxaca.mx/viral/bebe-con…
uruguayaldia.com.uy/viral-del-bebe…