@TipsWatch

Talking about Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, plus I Bonds and Treasurys in general, on the https://xitter.cf/t.co/eKll4hxO6k site, since March 2011.

tipswatch.com
Joined October 2013
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  • Followers2.5K
914Media
Thursday's 10-year Treasury yield decline of 0.193 percentage point (to 4.952%) is the largest single day yield decline since March 10, 2023, which is the day Silicon Valley Bank failed.
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Today's 5-year TIPS auction got a real yield of 2.367%, good but not awe-inspiring. Auction investors got caught in a down-draft of Treasury yields ... tipswatch.com/2026/10/22/5-y…
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Treasury's auction of a new 5-year TIPS got a real yield of 2.367%, caught in today's down-drift in yields. When-issued prediction was 2.36%, so demand was not stellar. Confusing day for the Treasury market.
LiveSquawk
@LiveSquawkOct 22
US 5-Year TIPS Sale: - High Yield Rate: 2.367% (prev 1.955%) - Bid-Cover Ratio: 2.41 (prev 2.61) - Direct Accepted: 32.4% (prev 28.0%) - Indirect Accepted: 62.0% (prev 68.6%) - WI: 2.36%
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Today's T-bill auction results: 4-week, investment rate of 4.012%, down from 4.068% last week. 8-week, investment rate of 4.096%, down from 4.132% last week.
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Real yields are dropping fast this morning. Ahead of today's 5-year TIPS auction, the most recent 5-year is now yielding 2.45%, down about 7 basis points from yesterday. Lots of volatility pre-auction.
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It appears the U.S. Treasury market is now back to being the safe haven for turmoil in Europe.
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Today's T-bill auction result: 17-week, investment rate of 4.271%, down from 4.313% last week.
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Also today, reopening auction of 20-year Treasury bond: High yield of 5.469%, up from 5.420% last month. When issued prediction was 5.460.
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Today's T-bill auction result: 6-week, investment rate of 4.049%, down from 4.055% last week.
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Am I reading this right? Yikes!
LiveSquawk
@LiveSquawkOct 20
US Pending Home Sales (M/M) Sep: -7.3% (est -0.5%; prev 0.3%) - Pending Home Sales NSA (Y/Y): -12.6% (est -3.9%; prev -4.9%; prev R -4.7%)
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National wealth tax? That is never going to happen. How about removing stepped-up basis and raising the Social Security taxable limit? Those would be easy ways to start. finance.yahoo.com/economy/ar…

United Airlines CEO: 'We should have a national wealth tax'

United CEO Scotty Kirby says wealth inequality is 'a danger to our society.'

finance.yahoo.com
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Today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 4.195%, up from 4.185% last week. 26-week, investment rate of 4.372%, up from 4.351% last week.
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Treasury revamped its results .pdf layout today; I'm not sure I like the new look. Also changed the link on the TreasuryDirect site, which means an extra click for me.
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This week's auction of a new 5-year TIPS (CUSIP 91282CRR4) may be the ultimate conservative investment. The real yield will be near a two-decade high. My analysis: tipswatch.com/2026/10/18/thi…
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Correction on the maturity date to 2031. Sorry!
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Nearly two-thirds of builders said immigration enforcement is affecting their labor force, up from 23% in March and 13% a year ago, according to a September John Burns Research & Consulting survey. “We’re almost dead in the water because our workforce is gone,” said Scott Brannock, president of Jacksonville-based Tidewater Homes and the Northeast Florida Builders Association. “We have national builders who are missing projections, losing hundreds of thousands of dollars because they have slabs sitting on the ground and no one to frame.” wsj.com/us-news/the-immigrat…

The Immigration Crackdown Is Making It Much Harder to Build Houses

Home building, which relies on foreign-born workers, is suffering a labor shortage that is freezing projects and raising costs.

wsj.com
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The U.S. budget deficit increased 12% in fiscal 2026, despite a strong U.S. economy and strong employment. This cannot be tolerated. finance.yahoo.com/economy/po…

The US federal budget deficit for 2026 just came in. It’s $1.992 trillion.

The US federal budget deficit for 2026 officially came in Friday at $1.992 trillion, a final tabulation to close out the government's fiscal year and another reminder of Washington's spiraling...

finance.yahoo.com
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... From the article: "the Committee for a Responsible Budget noted in a recent analysis that 'the country's future fiscal outlook is even more dismal,' noting that annual deficits could reach $3.1 trillion by 2036.
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It should seem obvious, but only a few AI mega-companies are going to succeed, and a lot are going to fail. High interest rates can get that rolling. "Something breaks." wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-r…

The Riskiest Corner of the AI Trade Is Crashing Into Higher Rates

The CoreWeave selloff shows a pressure point from climbing borrowing costs.

wsj.com
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Today's T-bill auction results: 4-week, investment rate of 4.068%, up from 4.048% last week. 8-week, investment rate of 4.132%, up from 4.060% last week.
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