A podcast on trade, markets and geopolitics from Geneva. Facts first, jokes second. Hosted by @ArdianTweets and @RSkidmore_GVA Email: [email protected]
Geneva, Switzerland
Joined October 2020
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Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
"Below-average-paying industries account for 50,000 of the 46,000 total private sector jobs added in September. In other words, above-average-paying industries shed about 4,000 jobs. And this has been the state of affairs for years now" bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
🚨 New Episode 🚨
- Digital resilience with @ITU 's @tlamanauskas
- Swiss manufacturing vs. tariffs
- China and Switzerland make a (trade) deal
-"The stupidest trade war ever" (US-Canada)
Plus: watch flexes
🎧 t.ly/Eq5ZV
#TradeSplaining #ListenResponsibly
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
Ep 90 of #TradeSplaining is out!
🎧 Listen: t.ly/a7L1H
What do Hormuz, China, port rankings and $8 ice cream have in common?
They all explain how geopolitics now shows up in your wallet.
Ft. @JanHoffmann_gva of the @WorldBankGroup on ports, shipping and more!
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
"Carmakers rush to secure aluminium as Middle East war hits supply"
ft.com/content/167fdf4b-0afd…
"the bigger issue is that this is on top of tariffs and other disruptions last year.”
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
Hormuz fertiliser block will upend world’s food supply ft.trib.al/pvXGzSC | opinion
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
Iran has started charging transit fees on some commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
🚨 New episode 🚨
🎧 Listen: t.ly/z5Jz2
Is everything national security now?
Episode 83 of #TradeSplaining digs into trade, tariffs & geopolitics in 2026 — from Greenland to WTO rule-stretching.
Ft. @loyaladvisor & Greg Messenger of @BristolUniLaw
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
The Apple in China thesis, applied to biotech. This is a brilliant, illuminating piece:
open.substack.com/pub/jwcass…
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
#TradeSplaining is back!
🔗 Listen now: t.ly/OCY3g
On Ep 82 we talk rising energy costs, overcapacity in tomato paste and of course..tariffs
No guest this time — just us and end-of-year vibes (+ a few jokes we probably shouldn’t have kept in.)
#ListenResponsibly
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
#TradeSplaining is back!
🔗Listen now: cutt.ly/uYrtW1Z
One summer break, one new baby 👶 and zero progress on global trade reform later.
We’re talking tariffs, China’s slowdown, and the next potential trade war
Ft. @ShearingNeil of @CapEconomics
#ListenResponsibly
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
'The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data" marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
"‘Only so long’ before Trump's tariff costs hit consumers, businesses warn" politico.com/news/2025/12/08…
"There's only so long you can play those games. Inventories get drawn down, all of those things eventually wear out, and that's kind of where we are now.”
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
Cocoa prices dropped, with the market pressured by expectation for a global supply surplus on the back of favorable West African harvests bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
Probably a good time to remind people: the thesis of my book Apple in China is that Apple is the largest supporter of Made in China 2025, ie Beijing’s efforts to dominate global manufacturing.
They didn’t mean to become such a supporter, but that’s what makes the story so interesting.
Appleinchina.com
In China’s new Five-Year Plan, the #1 priority is “modernized industrial system” — i.e., manufacturing.
By 2030, China will even be a bigger superpower in producing goods for the world.
The US + Europe have no viable plans other than delusional trade wars they cannot win. 🤡
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
And, ofc, even US-based companies not paying big tariff bills often raise their prices too:
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
Concepts of a deal: "Confusion Over Tariff Stacking Hampers Japan’s Bid to Pin Down US Trade Deal" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
Facts worth knowing:
From 2018 to 2025, @Apple has pledged to invest/spend $1.28 *trillion* in the US:
In 2018, $350 billion: apple.com/newsroom/2018/01/a…
In 2021, $430 billion: apple.com/newsroom/2021/04/a…
In 2025, $500 billion: apple.com/newsroom/2025/02/a…
These figures aren’t audited or transparent. The press releases purporting to explain them don’t.
The “details” are made up to things like a $1bn in North Carolina and a “$100 million fund to support schools” — begging the question, what about the rest?
Analysts generally say Apple makes these pledges, but then doesn’t follow through with them. That’s a weird thing to conclude — essentially it’s an accusation of lying.
My take is that Apple *does* invest these sums, but what it counts as “investment” are share buybacks and dividends.
Apple has recently spent more than $100bn a year on buybacks alone, so that would account for the vast bulk of their “investments” in the US.
Thus, they aren’t investments in US manufacturing, as prior press releases lead one to believe — without ever directly stating as much — but they are, kinda sorta, investments in the US (as ~70% of Apple shareholders are in America).
So, for today’s announcement: the devil is in the details.
I don’t care what number Apple cites, I want to know what they are actually building; which products they will be making, and so on. That’s what matters. Everything else is puffery.
Apple set to boost US investment plans by $100bn, says White House on.ft.com/45o8Xd8
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
Last year Switzerland unilaterally eliminated all tariffs on imported industrial goods, in case you needed further proof that Trump's tariffs aren't about "reciprocity" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
Even more signs of a global rice glut.
The world's largest buyer stops (for 60 days) importing!!!
Wholesale rice prices have already plunged to a 8-year low of $370 per metric ton, and prices are heading toward a ~20-year low below $350 a ton.
#Rice bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Trade Splaining Podcast retweeted
"Worse than the tariffs themselves is the byzantine system of rules for the tariffs. Many small businesses are already screaming that the regulatory structure of tariff compliance is actually costing them more than the tariffs themselves."
Yep. And it's only getting worse.
Once you’ve made the party the ideology or the idol, taste is subsumed. Ideas are subsumed. You think you are thinking for yourself, but you do so by outsourcing your judgment to shape your thinking to those whose tribal loyalties in the present are beyond question.
It is why dissent is so necessary.
We see such dangerous groupthink festering on the left as the hive mind of American political press, intelligentsia, the academy, pop culture, etc. all lead the left off the cliff of antisemitism, embracing resentment and the environmental death cult, etc. It is why they are headed towards violence.
On our side, we’ve abandoned a century of sound economic thinking to scratch an itch from the 1950’s Democratic Party, which had been thoroughly infiltrated by socialists and communists. We have abandoned the careful and reasoned judgment of voices from history for the voices of the here and now, telling us the ideas we long held no longer matter because… reasons.
Ford Motor Company makes more cars in the United States than any other automaker. Ford puts the “First” in “America First.” The result?
Ford is being penalized through tariffs.
Thanks to President Trump’s negotiated tariffs with Japan, South Korea, and Europe, it is now cheaper to make a car in Japan and import it into the United States than it is for Ford to make a car in the United States. Why? Because there is now a 15% tariff on imports from Japan, but Ford must pay a 50% tariff on aluminum and steel, plus tariffs on copper and other items. American industry does not produce enough aluminum for Ford, so it must be imported for Ford to build cars in the United States.
The company producing its cars domestically is now at a competitive disadvantage to the Japanese, South Korean, and European vehicle manufacturers.
But it is not just Ford.
ewerickson.substack.com/p/i-…