I research stocks that can 10x in value over 10 years. Start for free with the Asymmetric Investing newsletter or find me on YouTube.
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Joined February 2010
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2025 is in the books, and it was both outstanding and unsatisfying.
If you had told me at the beginning of the year, the Asymmetric Portfolio would more than double the market's performance, I would have taken it.
But after being up 53% early in October, the final results feel unsatisfying.
The good news is, this is a long game. I'm happy to buy some of my favorite stocks 30-50% off their highs, and long-term, these compounding businesses will become compounding stocks.
Thank you to everyone who subscribes, and if you want to see the portfolio's performance, the linked article is free to view.
Bring on 2026!
asymmetric-investing.beehiiv…
Great line:
"The fact that we're debating about a bubble means there's a bubble. If people are trying to explain away a bubble, there's a bubble. It's that simple."
Ex-Point72 Head of Prop Research Kirk McKeown on the simplest bubble test there is:
"What's my body of work that I can look back to for bubble dynamics? It's obviously the internet bubble, the housing bubble."
"You can look back to the Great Depression. Sorkin just wrote a piece on it."
"You need a corpus of knowledge that you can draw on, you don't have to ask a robot for. So read the books, do the work."
"Having a competitive advantage takes work. And it's not asking a chatbot. It's reading a book."
"The fact that we're debating about a bubble means there's a bubble. If people are trying to explain away a bubble, there's a bubble. It's that simple."
How do you find great investment ideas?
1. Take your spouse's credit card statement
2. Rank by $ spent and # of line items
Go through the list from top to bottom. There's at least one great idea in the Top 5 and a hidden gem near the bottom.
The @beehiiv MCP is pretty amazing.
Combined with the @Fiscal_ai MCP I may have an entirely new product line in the works.
$SOFI hits it out of the park again.
Huge increase in 2026 guidance, which is big because it’s late in the year and shows they’ve handled higher rates well.
The margin question will be the one to watch in 2027.
If no one has pricing power, eventually margins are competed out and who has a positive ROIC in the end?
The best investors are on a constant learning journey.
Buffett started buying "cigar butt" stocks and evolved to a buy-and-hold strategy.
Bill Gurley has made a fortune on internet companies and the internet didn't even exist when he started.
Learn, implement, repeat.
$ANT S-1 is out. I'll start a thread on what I find interesting.
Looks like the ~45% Q/Q growth figure for Q3 is confirmed based on this section.
"From September 30, 2025 to September 30, 2026, TTM revenue increased approximately 1,200% while headcount increased approximately 170%, driving TTM revenue per employee from $1.4 million to over $6.6 million, a reflection of extraordinary talent density and a culture built to compound it."
Nearly half of revenue comes through marketplace or partnerships.
Those marketplaces also cost ~$3 billion. This is essentially distribution costs.
$ANT At least $390 BILLION in spending commitments over the next decade with $MSFT, $GOOG, and $AMZN that's not cancellable. $SPCX deal is also huge, but there are outs!
This is why the revenue growth ramp needs to keep going up FAST!
$ANT S-1 is out. I'll start a thread on what I find interesting.
Looks like the ~45% Q/Q growth figure for Q3 is confirmed based on this section.
"From September 30, 2025 to September 30, 2026, TTM revenue increased approximately 1,200% while headcount increased approximately 170%, driving TTM revenue per employee from $1.4 million to over $6.6 million, a reflection of extraordinary talent density and a culture built to compound it."
