The Far Right Moderate 🇺🇸

Intel Update - Oct. 3 - False Flag Season

//The Wire//1300Z September 28, 2026// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: INCIDENT REPORTED AT RAF FAIRFORD AS MULTIPLE MEN ARRESTED IN MULTIPLE VEHICLES NEAR THE AIRBASE PERIMETER.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- United Kingdom: Yesterday a possible terror attack was foiled at Fairford Airbase, after a group of men were discovered acting suspiciously in the vicinity of the base. Local authorities state that a local farmer visually observed three vans parked in the roadway just outside the base. When the farmer approached the vehicles blocking the road, a group of masked men fled from the scene. After the alarm was raised, authorities responded and a total of five men were detained after being found hiding in the woods near the van site. A search of their vans revealed large containers of hazardous material, which prompted a mass evacuation of the local area. A total of 85x homes were evacuated for several hours while EOD personnel examined the contents of the vans, with residents being allowed to return to their homes last night. All five suspects have been detained, and government officials have declined to officially attribute motive. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As this is a developing situation, many of the details as presented to the public either are not clear, or do not make much sense in terms of what attack might have been planned. Right now, the finger is being pointed at Iran for this incident for obvious reasons, however before attribution can be laid on any group or nation, the basic facts of the case must be ironed out. Government officials and media groups are insinuating that this was a Vehicle Borne IED (VBIED) attack that was foiled before it could materialize. Other claims are being made suggesting that this incident is not terrorism...but rather a group of thieves who were trying to steal diesel from the farm that they were discovered at. Examining the Most Deadly theory first, if it was a VBIED attack, it would be one of the most unorthodox VBIED attacks in history, for many different reasons. First of all, multiple people being located in each vehicle is odd; these types of attacks almost never result in multiple attackers being located in the same vehicle...it's almost always just one person inside the VBIED. If multiple people are to take part in an attack, it would have made more sense for the additional personnel to travel to the site in separate vehicles, to conduct a more complex attack (such as the infamous Bataclan attack back in 2015). In this case however, local authorities have not stated whether or not any small arms were found inside the vehicles, and no ideological material (such as flags, banners, or other paraphernalia) was found either. Additionally, the local farmer who claims to have been the original source for visually observing these individuals stated that she initially became suspicious after these men were seen wearing hoods and masks. If this observation is true (and it probably is), this is another detail that does not make sense. VBIED attacks are usually a one-way trip, and therefore the attackers aren't normally concerned with keeping their identity a secret. On the contrary, they usually want to be known publicly as martyrs, so wearing masks goes against nearly all other similar attacks. Furthermore, the attackers were spotted by the farmer blocking the roadway, and fled from the scene on foot after the farmer drove up on them. This is once again another clue that something is amiss. Normally, once a terrorist begins moving into the final stages of their attack and starts maneuvering to the attack site, a series of events is in place that would be difficult to stop. Once they've committed to the attack, violence from authorities is usually the only thing that can stop an attack at that point. Following the narrative as presented, five very physically fit Military Aged Males spent months planning an attack, had obtained three vehicles packed with explosives, had arrived at the attack site, and were preparing the attack...but were shooed away by an unarmed British lady right as they were about to detonate. This framing makes absolutely zero sense unless the story as presented is missing large and very critical details. Another discrepancy is the exact location of where the vehicles were discovered blocking the road. The farmer who made the discovery found these men and their vehicles at a junction on Horcott Road, a quiet English lane just to the east of the base itself. This road is nowhere near a main entrance to the facility. Speculating a bit (and following the VBIED theory), it is possible that the attackers intended to attack the perimeter fence itself, and not a main gate. Right at the junction where the vehicles were parked is a farm which features a small path that leads somewhat close to the perimeter fence itself. However, based on the satellite imagery (which the attackers surely would have had) this is a rather poor attack site. There is no High-Speed Avenue of Approach, and even if they detonated their cargo right where they were sitting, it's not very likely that any military aircraft at the base would have been damaged (although a LOT of citizens would have been killed). There are several other points where the attackers could have breached the perimeter, including one site that is directly on a main road, easily accessible, and offered absolutely zero resistance to a vehicle ramming through the flimsy fence to drive directly onto the runway itself. If the attackers were dedicated enough to fill three vans with explosives in an attempt to carry out one of the most substantial IED attacks in British history...they would have had to drive past one of the most devastatingly vulnerable parts of the base, to pick a far less effective target. Now that the jig is up and base security is heightened, there is no risk to pointing out this glaring vulnerability, because base security have parked heavy vehicles near all of the gates that are easy to ram through. This indicates that the vulnerabilities along the base perimeter were genuine...and the alleged terrorists did not choose to exploit them for some reason. Finally, the vehicles themselves provide a major clue which adds helpful context that must be considered in the broader context of what might have happened. At least one of the vans was marked with the logo of "Fuel 2You" a fuel delivery company, which provides fueling services to machinery and industrial sites, for customers who need small fuel deliveries. However, the logo is NOT the same as the company...they misspelled the name. The vans are marked with "Fuel 2YOU", but the actual company is stylized as "FUEL2U" with the letter "U". The logo is also green in the United Kingdom; the red logo that the suspects copied is from an American company. This small detail alone is the strongest evidence of malign action. Camouflage is an act that, when discovered, betrays intent to conceal something. And in this case, it's fantastic camouflage, because if a terrorist were to be pulled over with barrels full of flammable liquid, there is no better camouflage than to take on the identity of a company that is known for operating mobile gas stations. The problem is that the suspects googled "Fuel 2 You" and got the logo from the American company, instead of the British company that is called "Fuel2U". The actual company released a statement confirming that their company likeness was used by the suspects without their permission, and that these vehicles had no affiliation with their company whatsoever. As a result of this final detail, the suspects were almost certainly up to no good, but exactly what they were planning is up for debate and will have to be determined later on. The use of camouflage on their vans is a clever trick that would support either the VBIED theory or the diesel theft theory, but adding up all of the details that are known, every factor lines up more with the diesel theft theory than the VBIED theory. Speculating on the diesel theft theory, everything so far makes sense. A band of thieves masquerading as a fuel delivery service company, and using that as cover to steal fuel would be a rather slick criminal operation (that is, if they weren't dumb enough to use the wrong logo). Since the suspects were captured alive, it is certain that some information will be obtained, but for now a lot of guesswork is required both to determine what actually was being planned, and also what future threats might be still on the horizon. The discrepancies in the other details of the case indicate that this case is not as cut-and-dry as depicted in the media...there is very clearly something that the authorities are not telling the public. This does not necessarily indicate much on it's own; there is certainly enough wiggle room in the official story for everything to technically be true. Maybe the attackers got lost, or had a breakdown, or were not that great at planning. Maybe they weren't trying to conduct an attack at the time of their discovery, and were instead trying to stage IEDs for later on. On the other hand, it's also possible that these individuals were not terrorists, but rather thieves attempting to steal fuel from the farm at which they were caught. As it stands, the possibilities vary widely, and until more details are known we just don't know. More broadly, this incident is a high profile matter that will have several follow-on effects even if it was just diesel theft. First and foremost, the American B-1B bombers will probably be moved around the base, since news helicopters revealed where they are parked. Fairford is not the only base where American bombers are located, and these assets are rotated around fairly regularly anyway. Random Antiterrorism Measures (RAM) are certain to increase at all British bases where American forces are staged, with this incident highlighting the security vulnerabilities at major military installations throughout Europe. If pro-Palestine activists can break into a military airbase and damage aircraft with paint (as they did last summer at RAF Brize Norton), then legitimate and serious terrorists certainly can do worse. This latest incident is too close for comfort, and if this was an attack that was indeed imminent (before it was stopped), this would be a miracle that highlights the critical importance of a prepared and observant citizenry. Until we know more details, from a planning perspective it would be wise to treat this as a very serious threat that could have killed a lot of people. Regardless of who was behind it (and for whatever reason) if this was an attack and if it were to be carried out as claimed by initial reports, many lives would have been lost, nearly all of which would have been civilian. And the threat might not be over just yet. The local farmer who made the initial discovery has adamantly assured that she saw more than just the five men who were detained. If this is true and if there are other suspects on the loose, this could present a more persistent threat to the local area until they are found. Analyst: S2A1 Research: publish.obsidian.md/s2underg… NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 24, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STABBING REPORTED AT POLISH MONASTERY. INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS CONTINUE IN EUROPE. MAJOR MISSILE STRIKES REPORTED IN KIEV. ENERGY CRISIS CONTINUES AS GAS AND DIESEL PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Ukraine: Major missile strikes were reported in Kiev overnight. Several Iskander missiles struck targets around the city, targeting factories and various production facilities. Additionally, at least four different Zircon hypersonic missile strikes were reported, in addition to the short range ballistic missiles. Poland: Overnight, a sabotage attack was reported at a Starlink communications hub south of Warsaw. Unidentified assailants set a generator on fire, along with a power distribution hub on site. This site is owned and operated by Exatel (the state-owned telecoms company) and functioned as a ground control station for the Polish military's use of Starlink. This attack took place at roughly the same time as the heavy missile strikes in Ukraine and Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski stated that the attack is being treated as an act of sabotage. Also in Poland a stabbing attack was reported this morning at a Benedictine Abbey in the town of Jaroslaw. One assailant attacked two priests on the grounds of the monastery, after stealing a knife from the kitchen. During the fray, a total of three clergy and two laypeople were wounded. One of the Sisters of the abbey stated that Father Stanisław was killed during the attack, and Father Marek remains in critical condition. The assailant was detained at the scene and was not identified by name. However local authorities state that the attacker is a Ukrainian national. Europe: Following the intense targeting campaign between Russia and Ukraine overnight several runaway drones were reported, striking third party nations around the region. This morning a drone struck a wooded area near the border in Romania, and another drone impacted a farmers field in Moldova. Middle East: Yesterday the Pentagon disclosed the death of another soldier related to the current war with Iran. Major Bianca Wilkerson died after suffering a non-combat related medical incident while onboard an aircraft bound for Saudi Arabia. Analyst Comment: It is important to note the process for categorizing wartime casualties has changed somewhat since the start of the war. Operation EPIC FURY officially ended on May 5th. Ever since that date, all casualties have been logged under the general banner of "Overseas Operations", which includes US military casualty figures from all around the world, which are not cataloged under a different operation. As a result, it's challenging to determine exactly how casualties (both deaths and the wounded) are being counted. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within the United States, the energy situation continues to deteriorate. The national average for gasoline remains around $4.50/gal and diesel has steadily risen to around $6.52/gal. Early this morning the Houthis announced that they had hit more Saudi infrastructure, which has not yet been confirmed by satellite imagery. Regardless, the report alone was enough to cause crude futures to rise further, back up to around $108/bbl. The White House has not yet announced a decision regarding a potential export ban on diesel, though at the moment most experts (and even Trump himself) are hesitant to implement any export ban, because it might cause more problems than it solves. Either way, a decision will have to be made soon, as diesel prices continue to slowly rise right at peak harvest season and fuel prices for farmers are going to be reflected in the price of food and goods very soon. Analyst: S2A1 Research: publish.obsidian.md/s2underg… NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z September 23, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY CONTINUES IN NEW YORK. AMERICAN SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN AIRLINES COME INTO EFFECT. COMMERCIAL VESSEL STRUCK IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. RUSSIAN HELICOPTER BRIEFLY CROSSES POLISH BORDER, ESCALATING GROWING CONCERNS OF AIRSPACE INCURSIONS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- United Kingdom: Immigration issues continue to develop, as channel boat crossings have escalated over the past few days. At least two inflatable boats made landfall in Kent overnight, prompting concerns as to why they were not intercepted and turned around before reaching land. The recent migration surge has resulted in widespread protests at port facilities throughout the country, which have also become more tense as authorities provide security for migration operations. Middle East: This morning a commercial vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, which resulted in a major fire. The crew of the M/V CAPE DAO abandoned ship, after one crew member was killed and another wounded during the strike. Poland: Overnight one border incursion was reported near Braniewo, as a Russian helicopter from Kaliningrad flew south over the border. The helicopter flew about 300 meters into Polish airspace before returning to Kaliningrad less than a minute later. Poland scrambled fighters to intercept the aircraft, and ground forces were placed on alert in the border region. Analyst Comment: This was probably a classic probing incident. Russia has very obviously been carrying out reconnaissance to probe air defenses and test NATO's response, and this case was probably intended to spin up Polish responses, which they dutifully did. Russia probably doesn't need to do this, but these types of light border incursions have been common over the past few decades. This incident is not exactly earth-shattering, but it's also not unremarkable either, and mostly serves as yet another example of how the Cold War era escalations remain constant. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - As of this morning, American sanctions took effect to sanction nations which allow Iranian commercial aviation to operate within their country. These sanctions target nations that allow Iranian aircraft to land and refuel, with the United States threatening to cut off those nations from the US banking system. Analyst Comment: In response to the United States announcing a total ban on Iranian commercial air travel around the world, China has announced that they will continue to allow Iranian commercial aircraft to operate within their nation. This position was announced the same day that the White House welcomes President Xi for his first state visit in a decade. New York: The United Nations General Assembly continues as before. Various protest events took place outside the UN building throughout the day, including a few minor groups which blocked traffic for a short while. Analyst Comment: Otherwise, an alleged meeting also took place between American and Iranian diplomats on the sidelines of the Assembly, which does not appear to have resulted in any sort of positive movement toward a peace agreement. Both sides appear to be heavily entrenched in their positions, with no real room for actual negotiations at the moment. Illinois: The Joliet Refinery is returning to normal operations, after being offline for the past ten days due to flooding which caused a power outage. Fuel prices are expected to drop by a few cents throughout the Midwest as this refinery begins to come back online, with gas prices expected to return to the national average after being elevated due to this refinery being offline. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within northeastern Africa, trouble is brewing in Ethiopia. This beleaguered African nation has been host to civil unrest for many years, as tensions between government forces and rebels within the Tigray region have remained constant. Northern Ethiopia has become inflamed following years of dispute over the administration of the Tigray region. In 2022, a tenuous peace settled in throughout Ethiopia and Eritrea, after Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) reached a sort of truce regarding the administration of the Tigray region. Last month, the peace deal started unravelling, and as of the past few days, the TPLF is mobilizing once again. This time, a coalition of various militia groups has formed, comprised of the TPLF, the Amhara Fano ​National Movement, and a handful of others operating under a common banner. As of this morning, TPLF militants have captured the airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire, which are comparatively important airports throughout the region. Based on statements by the group, the TPLF is once again trying to overthrow the Ethiopian government and re-take power (as the TPLF ruled the country from the early 90's up until 2018). While it looks like yet another typical African conflict between the standard warlord types, this conflict is escalating at the worst possible time, when there is already tension in the region as brought on by the Houthis just across the Red Sea. Perhaps most importantly, is the complex web of relationships and alliances. As is extremely common throughout the region, when there's trouble in one African nation, the culprit is usually next door. And in this case, Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of funding the TPLF and trying to overthrow Ethiopia (accusations which Eritrea denies). How this develops over the next few weeks will be important to watch, simply due to the tensions that are already complicating the region. Nobody needs another war adjacent to a major international waterway, and if this gets worse there's no telling how more destabilization will affect the region. If the TPLF can keep their grievances centered on the Ethiopian government, and if the conflict stays within Ethiopia (as it has so far) this won't be that impactful to the world economy. But if this conflict becomes more regional in a few weeks, this could get ugly. Now that the TPLF has a coalition of other groups, they cover a wider swath of public sentiment, and have the potential to turn up the heat, and if they so choose...allow the pot to boil over. Analyst: S2A1 Research: publish.obsidian.md/s2underg… NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//