UK-based investment analyst (ex-macro, now global equities), interested in econ & markets, defence, infra, etc. https://xitter.cf/t.co/rF30HPOD4H

London, England
Joined January 2013
“Capitalism emerged when people began discovering that wealth could be created rather than merely captured”
The best, most comprehensive take on AI I’ve read. After a year of confusion and fear about the future, I finished it feeling like a weight had physically lifted. It’s long. Make the time. @vgr is undefeated. contraptions.venkateshrao.co…
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Yes, Stalin was against the British state’s present-day policy of wage compression, understanding that it destroyed worker incentives.
A fun fact about Soviet history, in light of the love of tankies for Stalin and their contempt for his successors, is that he thought insisting on a compressed pay scale was degenerate leftism and it's only after his death that Soviet authorities enforced wage egalitarianism.
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The War on Low Pay (led by the likes of @resfoundation) is, in practice, a war on wage differentials. Relative prices are necessary to allow markets to function and clear properly. This is why the labour market is screwed up!
Minimum wage increases since 2015 have all but ended ‘low’ pay. In 2011, 21% of workers were low paid – defined as hourly pay below two-thirds of the overall median. By April 2024 3.4% of employees were low paid on this measure. Read more: buff.ly/0OSArrI
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James retweeted
This keeps on happening. It's a shame that, aside from Orban's Hungary and sometimes France, no western country shows much interest in the persecution of Christians across the wider Middle East. bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm4g…
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A more radical idea than artificially hiking wages and hoping that sorts it out would be to bring down the artificially elevated cost of living. Which means cheap, reliable power, lowered taxes on employment, and total planning reform to allow homes to get built.
Here's a radical idea for cutting the welfare budget, have big employers like Tesco pay their staff a living wage , so they don't have to claim benefits. Tax payers should not be subsidising Tesco and the like!
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More broadly; > We think we're a rich country > We see prices rising, assume that means growth we're not participating in > We see taxes rise and public services/realm worsen > We see very rich (often American) and very poor people on TV and social media It's extremely for any populist to draw their own shapes with those dots. Pick a villain, blame them, get everyone angry about it, promise a political revolution and a reckoning for the bad guys. But productivity has been frozen for years. We're not producing more £££ per hour worked. We've expanded the population without building new capacity for them. We've allowed infrastructure to rot, and underfunded capital investment. We've thrown hundreds of small, but cumulatively huge regulations over everything. We have an ageing population. And fundamentally, we have the delusion that policy decisions which make the nation poorer should not be allowed to make *us* poorer. We want carve outs, protections, subsidy to protect us from the consequences of the policies we've collectively chosen; minimum wage hikes, triple locked pensions, rising welfare, subsidised energy bills or tickets to attractions. Costs have risen - the pound is not what it was 20 years ago, so imports are more expensive. We are exporting less and earning less money to pay for the things we want to buy. Other countries are getting wealthier, and we want to keep up with them, but without doing anything to achieve that. As Tom says, we pile expenses and restrictions on instead. So if costs rise, and our productivity doesn't, we're going to get poorer. If you protect pensioners, and you keep raising the minimum wage with no more wealth, you just squeeze the middle and higher earners. Our costs of living seem to keep rising, because we have placed pressure on housing, energy, and public services without corresponding increases in wealth to pay for it.
I think a huge part of the reason why no government has been able to enact difficult pro-growth reforms is that the average voter still believes we remain a rich country. You hear this in politicians’ rhetoric “the sixth richest country in the world”. We’re the sixth largest economy but now far from the richest. Per capita we’re tanking down the rankings. One of the reasons why Poland or China have been able to have growth miracles in recent years is they think like a developing country. They know they were poor and they have to build to get rich. We think we are rich and that we don’t have to build anything anymore, or that when we do, it has to be the most expensive possible version of what we build. Bat tunnels. Fish Discos. Kittiwake hotels. We think we’re rich so we can afford to chase some wealth creators away, afford to mandate public biodiversity net gain on every development in the country, and afford to ratchet up state pension spending five times faster than the rate of growth in the economy. We’re suffering from acute ‘rich country delusion’. It’s only once we realise we’re far poorer than we should be that we can start to fix this nonsense.
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Wildly, this appears to be broadly true. There's a very small tail of extreme high earners, but there's a crisis of wage compression killing productivity and ambition. Not sure how you sell "lower/freeze min wage, abolish tax cliffs for higher earners" to an electorate, though.
The UK has a far flatter income distribution than the Communist Soviet Union. The UK take home minimum wage for working a full time job (40-hours) is now £22,555. At £100k salary, the take home is £68,558. That is a net income ratio of 3.04:1 We are now at the point where the wage compression and taxes in the UK means that the difference between minimum wage and a top 5% salary is a net income difference of only ~3x. In the USSR using the same comparison, this figure never fell below 5:1 It's actually even worse in reality because the person earning £100k in the UK often has student loans. Britain is nominally capitalist but functionally communist. China is nominally communist but functionally capitalist. Funny how that works.
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There’s basically no price differentiation in the entire bottom half of the labour market and then people act surprised when gluts and shortages emerge. Obviously, when all jobs pay the same, people will choose between them based solely on factors like which jobs are nicer to do.
This is totally crazy if true. The median hourly pay for a 21 year old was £13.00 in 2025...
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Almost everything Burnham says in this piece is a lie. - We didn't get a "harder" Brexit than what was mentioned in the Referendum. We left with the most comprehensive trade agreement the EU has ever signed. - The small boats crisis didn't emerge because of losing "returns agreements". While we were in the EU we were a net-, recipient of illegal immigrants from these agreements, the small boats crisis has emerged because of a global surge in illegal immigration and pull-factors like our human rights laws. - Immigration within the EU was not "revolving door". It has been permanent, and significantly more than estimated at the time. Over 6 million people have come here on the EU Settlement scheme, double estimated. The Prime Minister is dishonest and cynical, planning to hand border control to the EU, and likely pay them British taxpayers money while he's at it. – at Merton, London
Exclusive from @benclatworthy Britain is holding talks with the EU about a potential return to free movement and other options for closer alignment The Times has been told that the UK is discussing a series of options about the future relationship which are due to be unveiled within weeks Andy Burnham plans to set out his vision for closer ties with the bloc, including the potential of rejoining the union, and have a “conversation with the British public about our long-term future” The options that will be presented are being discussed with officials in Brussels to ensure both sides would ultimately be able to agree One source said all such routes would be “discussed using diplomatic channels” before any “big bang” launch of the options on the table thetimes.com/article/4ef6707…
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This 260-year demographic timeline of Poland’s Jewish population reveals the devastating scale of the Holocaust. Source: buff.ly/MEHJWla
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At least nine people died and 40 were injured in a terror attack on a church in Hamoud, Jordan, on Friday. Mourners had gathered for a funeral at St George's Greek Orthodox church, and three gunmen arrived in a pickup truck, detonated a small explosive device outside the parameters of the building and opened indiscriminate fire shouting 'Allahu Akbar'. The CCTV footage reveals the perpetrators facing no resistance and fleeing. ✍️ Kunwar Khuldune Shahid Article | spectator.com/article/middle…
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James retweeted
Moment an American pastor and prophetess, who are both married, introduce a new wife to their congregation and announce that they are now in a polygynous marriage with a female church member, claiming it is the “will of God.” 😭🤦🏾‍♂️🙆🏾‍♂️
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Absolutely delightful anecdote here. Idealism is a second hand marketplace
This is very good from, IMO, the most interesting modern political philosopher Joseph Heath. josephheath.substack.com/p/r…
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🚨 ROYAL Navy is on track to have just ONE working ASW frigate available for ops next year. They need 13 They have 5 2 could be ruled “unseaworthy” in months as per @NavyLookout That leaves 3, all over 24 yrs old 1 on ops 1 in work up 1 in maintenance thesun.co.uk/news/40806181/n…
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For many in the Church of England, the fact that thousands of these administrators aren't practising Christians is a deeper problem. What is the ‘tipping point’ of a bureaucracy to militate against mission?
‘The Church has increased its administrative staff by nearly 80 per cent in 20 years while the number of parish priests has almost halved..’ The administrators truly are plenteous, but the clergy are few; Pray ye therefore the Bishops will open their eyes. telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10…
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Tocqueville’s paradox: it is in the most equal societies that people find inequalities most intolerable.
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Top 10 Irishmen of All Time: 1. William of Orange 2. Arthur Wellesley, the Duke of Wellington 3. Arthur Guinness 4. Stephen Maturin 5. Claude Auchinleck 6. Phil Sheridan 7. Patrick Harper 8. Ian Paisley 9. Pat Cleburne 10. Margaret Thatcher
10 Greatest Englishmen in history: 1. Jesus Christ 2. Oliver Cromwell 3. Arthur, High King of Britain 4. Hector of Troy 5. Alfred the Great 6. Horatio Nelson 7. Henry V 8. Saint George of Lydda 9. Julius Caesar 10. Harold Godwinson
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1) Offer to pay welfare to the poor of the entire world 2) Threaten to seize the assets of wealthy citizens …. adverse selection …. national Bankruptcy
🚨NEW: HMRC's letter to wealthy Britons demanding detailed information about their financial arrangements has been revealed
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