NEWS: 🟦 Graham Platner, the Democratic senate nominee from Maine, has been accused of sexual assault. Sources indicate he could drop out of the race, in a major blow to his party in Maine this cycle. — CNBC Current race rating: 🟨 Tossup

(VERY) ROUGH ESTIMATES ON WHO EARLY VOTERS COULD BE VOTING FOR (with all independents redistributed): AZ: 🟥 592K 🟦 561K FL: 🟥 2.00M 🟦 1.87M GA: 🟥 1.35M 🟦 1.26M MI: 🟦 866K 🟥 632K NC: 🟦 1.31M 🟥 1.17M NV: 🟦 276K 🟥 265K PA: 🟦 848K 🟥 431K WI: 🟦 430K 🟥 273K

Low-confidence states in our average: One Biden v. Trump poll included (no polls post Biden drop out): AL, AR, HI, ID, KS, LA, ND, OK, OR, SD, UT, WV No polls, based on 2020 margins: DC, DE, KY, MS, NE-1, NE-3, NJ, SC, WY All others have at least 1 Harris v. Trump poll.