Yves Dubois 🇪🇺 🇺🇦

The recent Starlink / Starshield incident in Ukraine has created a dangerous precedence for the US export industry, many haven't yet grasped. The sudden deactivation respectively curtailing of those systems without warning not only cost precious lives, but also equipment worth millions. Though the blame game between the White House (Trump) and SpaceX (Musk) is going on, ultimately it doesn't matter. It showed the world that the USA are not a reliable partner any more. Pointing at some obscure "violation of terms of services" without providing the exact passage are just increasing that notion that this was a political move. The explanation that Starlink must not be used for "offensive" means is nonsense, too. Starlink has never been turned on over Russia, and using it in Ukraine is by definition defensive in nature. You can even argue that hitting Russian targets in Russia is defensive, since you don't have to wait for an attack to be conducted. Even the intention is enough to warrant action and to eliminate the threat at the source. But this is a different topic. Furthermore, SpaceX has been fully aware that its Starlink terminals are being used by Ukrainian forces. Especially when considering that Ukraine only recently had to white-list their Starlink terminals for the Ukrainian military so that Russian forces, who have been abundantly using Starlink as well, were locked out. It has always been clear that those Starlink terminals are used for and by the Ukrainian military, and Ukraine has always been thankful for that. Coming up with this bogus story, now, three weeks before midterms is therefore as transparent as it is shameless. It is obvious for everyone that this was just figleaf statement so that a political agenda can be pushed, an agenda which runs counter to the strategic nationalist interests of the USA, both political and economic. And this is the real scandal. It is not new that the US had to lock out its technology or supplies to nations with which it had previously good and even cordial relation. Iran under the Shah, South-Vietnam and Cuba before Castro are just three to name it. But as you can see from them, it made perfectly sense back then. Those nations switched sides or disappeared altogether. Ukraine on the other hand didn't switch sides and even helped the US in the most recent and botched Iran war, despite being short on ammunition itself. The Ukrainian government accepted every possible compromise and offered an unconditional ceasefire from the start. Russia on the hand refused all of it and is demanding surrender. Yet, it gets this treatment? Unbelievable. This will be noted by all clients around the globe who purchase US weapons and technology. If agreements are not honored and can unilaterally and even clandestinely be altered based on the whims of a few, who only follow their own motives or election lies, then the all concept reliability falls apart. Whether it is Starlink, the F-35, Tomahawk missiles or HIMARS. All those systems run on software and in many cases can only properly operate with recent updates. You don't even need have a kill switch. You can only refuse to update and many of those systems lose more than 90% of their effectiveness within a short period, making worthless. This is why we see the blame game between Musk and Trump. I'm sure that people around those guys told them how absolutely shortsighted and stupid this step was. It will fall back on the entire US industry. Not even those two guys are worth that losses and backlash. A functional US Congress would immediately start subpoenas and hearings, asking questions in order to mitigate the damage, but here we are. Trump and Musk have given the best reason why not to buy American. Customers - governmental and private alike - around the globe will take note of this and act accordingly, and I wouldn't be surprised if this won't be limited to US military products only. An absolutely senseless and avoidable own goal.

The amount of Patriot interceptor missiles the US are using to counter Iranian attacks is mind-boggling. Between 60 and 100 missiles, possibly even more, fired in a matter of minutes, the majority being PAC-3 MSE interceptors. It is obvious that Iran is deliberately exhausting US stockpiles using rather cheap missiles. The political backlash in the US is already huge, and any further uncoordinated escalation is primarily hurting the US and the West altogether. The Iranian regime has also nothing seriously to fear from the Trump administration, because of the wasted time in the beginning of the year. Only a full-scale invasion would change their calculus, but of course, there is virtually a zero chance that this is going to happen. Hence, they are feeling emboldened. The White House is even not capable to grasp or admit that Tehran is clearly coordinating with Russia. The coordination is certainly going beyond providing target coordinates of US troops. Not to mention the surging oil price which helps them both. The only good news is that Ukraine is depleting Russia, and by extension Iran. But Washington is clearly squandering that momentum. Without any serious grand strategy by the US administration, which would also consider the inclusion of allies and partners, this whole war is a blunder of epic proportions. It is only the latest example how important a clear strategy, solid alliances and trust are.