VoteHub

My latest on @CBSNews: how domestic migration is making some Sun Belt states more Republican, why Democrats are clear favorites to win the House, and why they hold a slight edge in the closely contested race for Senate control.

Florida Election Night Preview (7pm, 8pm polls close) Operations Florida’s first polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern, and the state counts very quickly. Many of the night’s first competitive race calls will come from the Sunshine State. Mail and early in-person votes usually report together first and will account for about 70% of ballots. They tend to be bluer than the Election Day vote, so expect Republican gains after the first drop to trickle in as Election Day precincts report. Most votes should be counted within 90 minutes of closing, with little left after Election Night. Key races Florida U.S. Senate: Ashley Moody (R) faces Angie Nixon (D). Florida was Trump+13.1 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Likely Republican, favoring Moody to win by 7.6 points. Nixon, a leftist, beat the much better-funded Alexander Vindman in the Democratic primary. Her campaign was poorly resourced in the primary, and she saw a surge in grassroots fundraising after the victory. She faces a very tough task against Moody, a previous statewide winner as attorney general who is expected to be a strong candidate in a red electorate. Moody is clearly favored. Florida Governor: Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D). Florida was Trump+13.1 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Republican, favoring Donalds to win by 5.1 points. Donalds, a congressman from southwest Florida, is favored to beat Jolly, a former Democrat. But, some Republicans are concerned that the race could become very competitive if the Election Day vote doesn’t deliver the punch they need after a disappointing early voting period. House races: Democrats would love to win three or more of the eight House seats listed below. Trump carried all of them comfortably, and Republicans drew them as GOP seats they hoped could hold even in this environment. If Republicans sweep all eight, or even win seven, control of the House is definitely up for grabs. FL-07: Ryan Elijah (R) faces Bale Dalton (D). The district was Trump+12.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Republican, favoring Elijah to win by 4.9 points. Elijah defeated embattled incumbent Cory Mills, who was under an ethics investigation involving allegations of revenge porn, domestic assault, and fraud. Democrats continued to contest the district but triaged it late, and the national party now sees it as more of a stretch opportunity without Mills on the ballot. FL-09: Dan Green (R) faces Darren Soto (D). The district was Trump+17.7 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Republican, favoring Green to win by 2.8 points. Despite the Republican lean of this district south of Orlando, Democratic incumbent Darren Soto has historically been a very strong candidate and is putting up a fight here. He is buoyed by the blue environment and the potential for large swings back among Puerto Rican voters, who make up his base in the Osceola County portion of the district. A Soto win would be brutal for Republicans, who drew the district very red to try to eliminate him. FL-13: Anna Paulina Luna (R) faces Leela Gray (D). The district was Trump+13.3 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race as Lean Republican, favoring Luna to win by 5 points. Luna hasn’t performed particularly well in her Pinellas County district, based around Clearwater and Largo in the Tampa area, over the last two cycles, considering how favorable the environment was for Republicans. Republicans couldn’t shore up her seat as they looked to take out Kathy Castor in FL-14, and Luna is now in a pretty close race. But she could be saved by Republicans holding on a bit better here in early voting than in other parts of the state compared to 2024, as Republican retirees continue to flock to the district. FL-14: Kathy Castor (D) faces Mike Beltran (R). The district was Trump+10.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this Tampa area race as Lean Democratic, favoring Castor to win by 3.9 points. Castor has outrun other Democrats by a ton in the past, which complicates this district for Republicans. Beltran is a well-funded candidate with experience in the state legislature, but taking out Castor would be a huge win for Republicans. In retrospect, they didn’t draw the district quite red enough for this environment. FL-16: Sydney Gruters (R) faces Kelly Kirschner (D). The district was Trump+13.6 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Likely Republican, favoring Gruters to win by 6.1 points. If Kirschner somehow wins this district south of Tampa, which includes much of Manatee County and Bradenton, it’s going to be one long night for Republicans. FL-22: Casey Askar (R) faces Pia Dandiya (D). The district was Trump+10.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Republican, favoring Askar to win by 1.8 points. This gerrymander stretches across the Everglades, setting up a battle between the red, retiree-heavy southwest Florida portion around Naples in Collier County and the bluer portions of Broward and Palm Beach counties. To me, this is THE swing district in Florida. If Democrats win it, I think they’re in a great position for a real tsunami of a night and it would be a great sign for winning the Senate. A comfortable Republican win would point in the opposite direction, while a close result would be an early sign that the polls are tracking pretty accurately. Of course, one district could reflect a strong candidate or simply be an aberration, so don’t read too much into it. FL-25: Jared Moskowitz (D) faces Scott Singer (R). The district was Trump+9.1 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring Moskowitz to win by 4.8 points. Republicans drew this seat to be highly competitive and a potential pickup if the U.S. House were close nationally. But they pretty much ceded it to Moskowitz if the environment is as blue as the polls indicate. If Moskowitz goes down, or even if this race is close, it would suggest that the U.S. House may be pretty close, too. Of course, one district could reflect a strong candidate or simply be an aberration, so don’t read too much into it. Still, Democrats expect a win in FL-25, which would mean winning at least one gerrymandered district Republicans tried to flip. FL-27: María Elvira Salazar (R) faces Eliott Rodriguez (D). The district was Trump+14.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Republican, favoring Salazar to win by 3.6 points. Large Hispanic shifts in this heavily Cuban district in Miami-Dade County have Republicans concerned about a Trump+15 seat that Biden almost won in 2020. Those concerns may help explain Salazar’s highly visible break with Trump on immigration policy in a video filmed in front of the White House. Rodriguez is considered a strong recruit, but Salazar is a strong candidate herself, and Republicans are holding on a little better in early voting than in other parts of the state.