🔎 When Different Forecasts Disagree – Which One Is Right? Every now and then, we receive screenshots comparing different forecasts during high-impact weather events. And the question that follows is always the same: Which forecast can I trust? It’s a fair question. Many publicly available forecast visualizations display raw numerical weather prediction (NWP) models on a grid. They represent the atmosphere at a certain spatial resolution – but they are not optimized for a specific location. meteoblue Learning MultiModel (mLM) works differently. What makes mLM different? Instead of simply displaying one raw model, mLM: 👉 Combines multiple global and regional weather models 👉 Learns from historical forecast errors 👉 Integrates local measurement data 👉 Applies machine learning correction at a specific point location This means meteoblue provides a calibrated point forecast, not just a gridded raw output. During extreme events – such as strong wind situations – raw models can overestimate gusts, underestimate peak intensities, shift the timing of the event, or show strong disagreement between different models. mLM statistically evaluates these patterns and corrects them based on past performance and real observations. 📊 And the result? When verified against live measurement data, mLM consistently ranks among the most accurate forecasts – even if it visually looks “different” compared to other model outputs in a side-by-side comparison. And that’s the key: consensus does not equal accuracy. If several raw models agree, it does not automatically mean they are closer to reality. ☑️ Why it’s important: In high-impact weather situations – aviation, energy, events, construction, logistics – small forecast differences can have large operational consequences. Accuracy at the point location matters more than agreement in a grid comparison. Machine-learning-based postprocessing is not just an add-on. It is the next evolution of weather forecasting. #MachineLearning #NWP #DataScience #WeatherIntelligence #meteoblue

🌟 2024 Highlights from meteoblue! ✅ Urban Heat Maps & Urban Wind Maps ✅ Joined forces with @Windycom ✅ New weather models & upgraded meteograms for even better forecasts Explore all our innovations - link below!