G2_Austin update: We have completed the steel skeleton, decking, & concrete floor. Work has begun on the interior mechanical, electrical & plumbing (MEP). An integrated American solar supply chain, from polysilicon to module, is within reach.

I am now at 80% of max exposure. We got some prices/levels I never thought I would see again.

IRAN SUPREME LEADER CALLS FOR MEETING CONDITIONS TO END THE WAR

Closed this hedge. Been continuing to slowly hoover up the recent panic selling.

Gotta lock that in while everyone is hyped and with ~$400B of unlocks still coming (and the Anthropic IPO). $SPCX Opened a hedge.

My gut feeling is that yields are topping. I started adding to high beta/momentum today.

$ASTS Added a bit today in the $50's. At this point, everything imaginable has been thrown at this stock for months. The entire internet is hating on it now apparently. Anyways. This Grain thing is a pretty big deal. Was reading up on it last night, and I had the FCC renewing AST's test authority as one of my buy triggers, so this was perfect timing. $SPCX needs this penetrating low-band spectrum desperately. Without it, the $2T company's Starlink Mobile aspirations are going to be rough. Would you switch from Verizon/AT&T/T-Mobile to a phone carrier that doesn't work under trees, in cars, or in buildings? SpaceX is throwing their deep pockets around to try to win this, but the problem is that SpaceX has no current designs or plans to launch a satellite that can even use this spectrum, which is basically one of the requirements to win the bid. If they were to start designing one today, it would take years to build, test, get licensed, and launch. They seem more focused on orbital data centers for this next phase. Meanwhile, $ASTS is the only one that has gone through years of testing, building, and approvals for these types of sats from the start. And they are the only one that already has them in the sky. And they are the only one now actively testing Grain's spectrum (interesting that the FCC even alludes to "AST SpaceMobile's arrangement with the terrestrial licensee"). If $ASTS gets this spectrum (and $SPCX doesn't), it will be a very big deal. The MNOs are also seemingly working together to help $ASTS win this and keep it out of the hands of $SPCX. Having the support of basically all of the MNOs likely makes $ASTS's candidacy to win the bid even more appealing. Winning it would also be another third-party validation that $ASTS's tech works and is superior. It also unlocks access to T-Mobile customers even without an agreement. For now the market is still favoring $SPCX to win this. It will be very interesting to see what happens.

Beginning to think the selloff is closer to ending now

$SPCX - SPACEX LOOKS TO RAISE $40BN TO BUY NVIDIA CHIPS IN FINANCING LED BY APOLLO - FT

If this happens, I suspect liquidity will return gradually. Also watching $IWM. After 1.5 months of non-stop bleeding, it bounced off the 200D MAs on the highest volume since July. Just early signs, but after sitting on my hands for two months, I'm starting to pay attention.

SpaceX employee #13 @_Eric_Romo: "The idea that launch prices are going to fall significantly in the next 5 years is nonsense." "There are an awful lot of business models that are predicated on 'when Starship allows me to launch for $200 a kilogram…'" "I think they’re all broken, and all those companies are going to fail." "We’ve seen this play out already with Falcon 9 and the pricing around it, where the costs of Falcon 9 allowed SpaceX to deliver the Starlink constellation at a cost per CapEx that made them profitable." "But they set the price in the market at something that just barely made it an okay investment to think about OneWeb or Kuiper or anything like that." "They’re going to do the same thing on Starship, because why wouldn’t they?" "Their internal costs on Starship are going to be whatever they need to be to deploy Starlink and orbital data centers, but they’re going to set the price so that anybody trying to do comms, anybody trying to do orbital data centers—the price is going to be too high." "If you’re a third party relying on them for a lower price of access to space, I think you’re hosed." @elonmusk Recorded at @NYSE x @payloadspace Space Summit

$ASTS - 🚨Another FCC STA extension to keep testing on Grain (Prism) 817-824/862-879 MHz spectrum was filed on 9/30/2026. Expires October 30th. Grain's decision window for a satellite partner closes November 5th. Big things are brewing behind the scenes and you're bearish b/c you're listening to B. Riley? H/T: @Bareskin_Bear

My gut feeling is that yields are topping. I started adding to high beta/momentum today.

The reason I'm perplexed is that it's one thing for us to put together breadcrumbs of a possible future, and entirely different for the company to just come out and say it all. I'm glad they said it. It turns those breadcrumbs into a stated goal and shows the vision they've been building toward for years. The "problem" is that none of it is a now thing. It's a future thing. The now thing is incredibly high cash burn and only 13 satellites up and a skeptical (or even adversarial) market. The risk is people expecting all of it to get priced in soon, owning more $ASTS than they should (through margin, leverage, and options), anchoring to prior euphoria highs, and burning out before any of this comes to fruition.

Full press release on $RKLB’s largest-ever Electron deal. These latest 20 missions will launch from LC-1 in New Zealand from 2028 to 2031. Wild to see launches already getting booked 5 years out 🤯

I've been gradually getting caught up after taking a break the last 1.5 months (surgery). The concerns I outlined below regarding the $ASTS community continued to manifest, and it's now a cacophony of amplified frustration. Coming back to it fresh, without having lived through the process, the end result reads as very odd and overly negative. From my standpoint, I had been wondering when something would finally go wrong technically and how the company would handle it. There was no way everything would just keep chugging along while building and launching never-before-built massive satellites one after another. There are plenty of reasons for a shipment delay including design updates, new features, government requests, or added resiliency after further testing with BB1-BB13 in the air. Remember that $ASTS didn't launch anything last year. Now they finally get to test a stacked deployment and a real constellation that is starting to take shape. We'll see how long the delay is and how major the issue is, but if it's two months and things are still humming along, I'll take it. On that note, I think people misread the recent PR/update. To me it was them saying "things are still humming along." Remember they're limited in what they can say for a variety of reasons, including competitive secrecy, government secrecy, and nuisance lawsuit risk. And the company has shown over and over that they prefer the head-down grind approach. They haven't sought the spotlight and most of the world has no idea they exist. The one thing I'd been hoping for by year-end is the start of beta service. That's no small feat for a company that until recently was tiny and fighting to survive the startup phase, and is now building never-before-seen satellites while ramping to ~1,000,000 square feet of manufacturing, hiring and training staff, keeping quality and efficiency up, and staying cost conscious. If they can't make beta happen before year-end I'll be disappointed, and I'm sure they'll be even more so. Also remember that 60+ MNO's and multiple governments are depending on their success. So far they've kept affirming that goal. I'll wait to pass judgment until then. I think the BB11 fears are currently baseless. If you start from the premise that "management lies and is incompetent," you'll look for ways to sneer and throw stones. If BB11 were a total failure, I think they'd have said so and de-orbited it by now. Instead it appears they're testing on it, which could very well improve and prevent issues on the next 20+ satellites. They're working their ass off, and if they found things to improve for BB14 and beyond, two months of "delay" is breakneck speed for introducing new engineering to the manufacturing line and re-constructing already built satellites. They can't afford a catastrophic screw-up at this stage. For us it's a black eye on net worth and selling or moving on. For them it's existential, and it squanders the opportunity to change human history. This is coming from someone who thinks touching options/leverage on this stock is a terrible idea, and who would be totally fine if the stock were $60 at year-end as long as the long-term thesis remains intact. I'm looking for a stock I can hold and compound for many years. I don't think satellite shipping news would have changed the stock price much in this environment. In my mind it's actually ideal that the negative stuff is happening now instead of hurting the recovery once the market is risk on again. Just my 2 cents as I get back into the flow, not financial advice. I wrote this out yesterday, has nothing to do with the green day today.

Yes this is intentional. Yes they track social media. Yes they know your positioning. They know you are leveraged. They know you are spread thin. They know you are exhausted and emotional. $ASTS

If you have a meaningful portion of your allocation in high beta, I think it's important to understand market liquidity mechanics. To simplify it, with an influx of attention and liquidity, price often detaches wildly from reality to the upside, leading to remarkable gains (if you take profits). When the liquidity tide goes out, the reversal can be just as dramatic and feel bottomless. This has now happened multiple times in the last year. I've mentioned it before but it's worth reiterating. This will virtually always happen with these high beta/momentum names. You will run out of incremental buyers, and there are forces that will intentionally capitalize on that. To quote my prior simplified warning: "The data suggests that many funds are very over-exposed and retail is likely heavily margined with negative cash (and no dry powder to buy the dip). The "buy the dip" liquidity may be strained, leading to very little fuel to the upside and a much higher risk of forced selling. In addition, liquidity is the lifeblood of these high beta/momentum stocks. Without it, big firms exploit that vulnerability to farm retail/margin accounts with algos. They know you have nowhere to run. Their moves get magnified as high-beta names drop in a coordinated way (pressure on pain points yields dramatic results). This is what gave us the relentless downward cascade" Your commission-free trades are not actually free. Your positioning is not a secret. This market has turned into a casino with remarkable mood and liquidity swings. Worth keeping in mind with liquidity-dependent positions. Otherwise you either repeatedly round trip everything, or worse, get harvested as the tide goes out and you're out of position.