"How do think your neighboring states intend to vote in this election?" is the new hype polling methodology prediction markets sharps are using for their private polls this year
Replying to @IAPolls2022 @BIGDATAPOLL
Georgia?!
"The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 793 registered voters and 698 likely voters in Georgia from September 24 – 26, 2026."
There should be some sort of job where people look into things like this, maybe journal their findings, then issue a public report of some sort. It could be called like a journaler or a reportist
OutsideContextProblem retweeted
Replying to @mattyglesias
You would just shoplift them instead?
If you want your power parities, just pay for them like everyone else
Of course they cancelled our sub to the supposedly 'woke AI' right when we need @claudeai the most. Really stellar decision-making. The oil crisis would have already been over
OutsideContextProblem retweeted
Share that one tweet of yours they're going to bust out after you win the Democratic Senate primary in the great state of Texas.
Starting to look like @Kalshi no longer pays attention to struggling users on their own subreddit, or has stopped performing basic moderation given the number of garbage posts. reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments…
Virgin AI user: meticulously re-works and puts thought into engineering the context and crafting coherent prompts
Chad advanced AI user: just asks shit and types iterations of uhh uhhhhh uhhhhhhh if it's doing something wrong until it gets it right
Wow playoffs exciting live trading on @kalshi click in app hope this doesn’t dox me *womp womp*
Remember just because something looks scary and is recently topical, you don't have to make it your Halloween costume theme
OutsideContextProblem retweeted
Replying to @revolvingdoorDC
"Mysterious bunch" is such a dumb phrase to use here. Did you try adding some ghost noises to web page too? Just disagree with people in a normal way. Guilt by association is just a poor epistemic framework to spend your time on.
Way way more women at AI related tech events. I’m really not sure what extremely online hot take to have about that
He has dementia he can’t even remember the word Constitution, very sad that they keep forcing him to be President
OutsideContextProblem retweeted
The resolution process at @Kalshi has a major flaw wherein people argue about 'source agencies' -- a list of news agencies in the market rules -- reporting an event to resolve the market.
The market 'Who will attend Trump and Putin's meeting in Alaska on August 15?' has several strikes (Hegseth, Leavitt) trading below 100c even though they were at the meeting and anyone with eyes to see can verify they were in the building.
Now you have people asking, "Who reported the picture?" instead of arguing the question "Were they there?" because if the 'source agency' isn't listed, then reality doesn't matter and the event COULD expire N. As if it makes any logical sense that Leavitt and Hegseth, sitting in the front row staring directly at Putin, should resolve to NO because the NYT didn't post a picture.
We have video and pictures from places like Getty or AFP showing Leavitt, Hegseth, etc. at the meeting. You can find these people anywhere in livestreams!
There needs to be some way to correct this on Kalshi before they let these things turn into meta-markets about wheter X agency and Y agency report something, but we are concerned about Z agency. It's not that different from the hair-splitting chicanery that happens on other prediction market platforms and should be fixable.




















