Consulting Meteorologist / Certified Weather Observer | Formerly of @NWSColumbia @AccuWeather | et itaque imus
Charlotte, NC
Joined November 2011
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Zach Elsam retweeted
GOOD NEWS: National Weather Service morning balloon launches have officially returned to normal levels while offices across the US have filled various vacancies. It seems like after an incredibly stressful and tumultuous 20 months in our industry, things are moving back to normal.
It’s important to remember though that the fight must continue. The United States of America has long been the global leader in weather infrastructure. We must do everything to ensure NOAA, and by extension the NWS, is fully and properly funded to maintain this status and continue to innovate. Accurate and timely forecasts save lives and keep money in your pockets.
Zach Elsam retweeted
🚨 New PolarWx Site Launch 🚨
After a long time planning the next steps for PolarWx, phase 1 has rolled out this evening with a completely revamped real-time tropical cyclone monitor website.
Check it out below or read the thread for more on what's new:
polarwx.com/tropical/
Zach Elsam retweeted
No sci-fi movie here, just a towering scud cloud creating an otherworldly scene over Pennsylvania ☁️
Zach Elsam retweeted
Lol yikes.
The mean warm pool is incredibly far east at this stage of our El Nino event.
As high as those SSTa are in the East Pacific now, this Super El Nino is honestly just getting started.
Just wait til we advect in those 29-30C SSTs to the east later this year 😬 😳
Zach Elsam retweeted
The lack of morning weather balloons launched across the western and central U.S. is having a real, tangible impact on degrading forecast quality.
We can't look at weather balloon data that doesn't exist. We can't pump nonexistent data into models. We can't rely as heavily on models that don't "know" what's happening above our heads.
Today's severe weather forecast is less certain because we don't have weather balloon data to confirm the strength of jet stream winds aloft.
This is extremely frustrating, and is the result of logistical, organizational, political and budgetary decisions.
Zach Elsam retweeted
Breaking: our new study just published shows that a stable or strengthening ocean current into the Nordic Seas is not a sign of a stable Atlantic overturning #AMOC. On the contrary, it is a physically expected result of an AMOC weakening.
Open access: os.copernicus.org/articles/2…
great family fun = reading and reporting your CoCoRaHS rain gauge
We need help filling out a critical need for rainfall data across portions of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. If you or happen to know anybody who lives in the starred counties below, please encourage them to sign up for CoCoRaHS today.
Link: cocorahs.org/
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Zach Elsam retweeted
A significant shift in global atmospheric wave patterns is forecast by June as El Niño strengthens and rising air intensifies across the Pacific.
This is when the ocean-atmosphere system is expected to become coupled, signaling the onset of El Niño-like weather patterns.
Zach Elsam retweeted
What a HORRIBLE forecast by meteorologists – especially myself.
Not only were we spectacularly wrong – we communicated poorly.
It became apparent last night that some of our initial expectations would prove fallacious.
I'd like to address what went wrong with our forecast:
Zach Elsam retweeted
@NWS has confirmed an EF-0 tornado occurred in Charlotte today, producing wind speeds of 85 miles per hour, was 1.5 miles long, and measured 25 yards wide.
While today's storm has passed, we encourage everyone to remain prepared for future storms by making a plan, building a kit, and signing up for CharMeck Alerts.
ALT The interior of a building with a damaged roof, revealing trees and sky outside. Debris is scattered, and caution tape is visible. Text on the image reads "EF-0 Tornado Confirmed.
Zach Elsam retweeted
The moon will TURN RED for 58 minutes on Monday night/Tuesday morning. And for the East Coast, this is a RARE SELENELION! Truly magical.
For everyone in the United States, expect to see the moon transform into a brownish-red rust as it slips into the Earth's shadow. Totality lasts 58 minutes.
For the East Coast, that will coincide with sunrise AND moonset! If you're in the dark red, you'll have the rising sun in the east AND the eclipsed moon setting in the rest for a few moments at the time of local sunrise. This view will last a couple minutes – you'll be in a magical, perfect planetary alignment. (Having a clear view of both horizons will be ideal, as is being high up.)
Where temperature profiles cooperate, you might get this rare, ephemeral "impossible" view for a little longer. Why? Earth's atmosphere can refract, or bend light, allowing the moon to be visible for a few extra moments even if it's technically below the horizon.
Share this with your friends and ENJOY! Share your photos too!
Zach Elsam retweeted
DYK: a typical lightning strike has enough energy to cook approximately 1 million slices of toast? We do NOT recommend you do this, nor do we know how you would even try. In fact, let's just forget about this whole thing. Just make sure you head indoors when you hear thunder roar. #NationalToastDay
ALT Lightning strikes behind a baseball field under dark storm clouds, with a stack of sliced bread placed on the pitcher’s mound. Large text reads “One Strike, You’re Out,” with “Out” crossed out and replaced with “toast.” Smaller text says, “When thunder roars, go indoors.”
Zach Elsam retweeted
Cuba 🇨🇺 has just recorded its lowest temperature on record this morning, with 0.0°C (32°F) at Indio Hatuey. This marks the first time in recorded history that the country has officially reached the freezing point.
Zach Elsam retweeted
While North Carolina digs out from the weekend snowstorm, we've been digging into the data.
Our latest blog has a region-by-region review of the totals, including a part of the state that hadn't seen this much snow in 67 (yes, 67!) years. #ncwx
📰: climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2026/0…
ALT A map of total snowfall in North Carolina from January 30 to February 1, 2026
Zach Elsam retweeted
[Tuesday, 1/27 Forecast]
The EPS & AIFS guidance noticeably shifted southeast today, either showing a major Carolinas snowstorm or keeping the heavy snow entirely offshore, while missing the DC-NYC-BOS corridor. The GEFS, in contrast, is far more aggressive with snow expanding closer to I-95.
While current probabilities of a major DC-BOS snowstorm have decreased, I would still not feel confident in locking in on any particular solution just yet.
Forecast analysis below:
[Monday, 1/26 Forecast]
One thing that remains clear over the last few days is there’s an extremely high end ceiling for snowfall from the upcoming weekend nor’easter.
The ingredients are all there:
— TPV lobe ejecting south out of Canada
— TPV quickly becomes negatively tilted over the SE US forcing rapid cyclogenesis near the Gulf Stream
— the suppressed height field downstream favors a slow moving low leading to prolonged duration heavy snow
The million dollar question, as is always the case at this lead time, is where & exactly how much peak snow totals will be, and no one can answer this with high confidence yet.
Zach Elsam retweeted
This might be an all-time sounding around here, 55° at 3280', but it's 16° at ground level. Also the 180° shift in the wind within like 200' from northeast to southwest. For laymen, this is the weather balloon at 1 pm from Greensboro, the sounding showing temperature with height. Super CAD here! #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #wcnc
Zach Elsam retweeted
Ok sticking with my forecast from yesterday. Havent seen anything to make me make major changes. patreon.com/posts/1-24-26-up…
Zach Elsam retweeted
The major winter storm and cold outbreak in the central & eastern U.S. this weekend will be most notable not for record cold, nor heavy snowfall, but instead for very heavy ice accumulations that will cause widespread/severe electrical infrastructure and travel disruptions.
ALT Map showing predicted ice accumulations across the United States over the next 3 days. Accumulations over 1 inch--which is very heavy--are depicted in some portions of the central and southeastern U.S. Map from NWS via weathermodels.com
Zach Elsam retweeted
This storm is huge. The biggest Winter storm of the season. Stay safe out there.
Zach Elsam retweeted
Ice Storm Warning now in effect for our entire forecast area, 1 PM Sat to 1 PM Mon, replacing Winter Storm Watch. Expected impacts haven't changed, but confidence has increased on significant/widespread impact mainly from freezing rain, thus the name change. #ncwx #scwx #gawx
ALT Ice Storm Warning is now in effect for the NWS GSP forecast area (western NC/SC and northeast GA) from 1 PM Saturday through 1 PM Monday. This replaces the Winter Storm Watch we had previously issued. Ice, combined with accumulated sleet, is expected across the area leading to hazardous road conditions and power outages that may last for days. The name Ice Storm Warning carries the same weight as Winter Storm Warning, but highlights the fact that public impacts will mainly be due to freezing rain causing ice accumulation on trees, power lines, and road surfaces. Any sleet accumulation will only worsen road conditions.