Recently built a prediction market analytics tool for people serious about skill vs luck. Unapologetic Arizona Wildcats superfan. 🐻⬇️
Honolulu, HI
Joined March 2009
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Anyway, I built and launched overround.pro.
For the right audience, I think it’s pretty cool. And refreshingly honest.
ZonaAloha retweeted
SEE YOU IN TUCSON NEXT WEEK, @CollegeGameDay
Arizona football is still playing at midnight in Tucson…
It's 2am on the east coast…
This is why Hawaiʻi is the best time zone for watching sports.
Two favorites lost so far, at 60% and 68%.
If 60% favorites never lost, they'd be 99% favorites.
By 7 AM CT Wednesday, 65 of 68 Senate and governor races we grade had resolved on Polymarket.
In 46, the election-morning favorite was priced at 90¢ or more. All 46 won.
Two other favorites lost: Texas governor (60¢) and South Carolina Senate (68¢).
overround.pro/guides/polymar…
ZonaAloha retweeted
would like to thank both arizona football and arizona basketball for reminding me that happiness is an illusion and our only solace is the inevitability of the all encompassing void
Arizona vs Texas Tech falls on Halloween this year, and Polymarket is giving the Wildcats around a 38% chance of pulling off the upset.
But every horror movie has that one character nobody expected to make it to the end...
Polymarket's order book API gives a lot of markets an end date with no time, and my code read that as midnight UTC, which is 8pm the night before in Ohio. So @OverroundPro briefly decided the markets on Wednesday's Ohio rally had closed before the rally started. Oops. Bug patched Thursday.
The Jets are about a 65% favorite to beat the Dolphins on Polymarket this morning. Jets fans, please remain calm and do not look directly at that number.
Indiana is about a 73% favorite to beat Michigan on Polymarket this morning. In 2022 I'd have gone looking for the bug in my code.
Win rate is easy to buy on Polymarket. Pay 95c, win 9 of 10, and you're at 90% but down 5c a share.
Win 55% of 200 bets at 40c and you're up 15c a share. Nobody screenshots that wallet, but they should.
I built Overround.pro to check win rates against prices paid. You should check it out.
ZonaAloha retweeted
"I hate that team. I hate that team up north with all my heart." — Noah Fifita, on ASU
🐻⬇️ Arizona!
Noah Fifita is a 5 foot 10 quarterback, and people offered him millions of dollars to leave Arizona.
He stayed.
Saturday he was the highest graded quarterback in college football.
Here is the whole thing.
He is from Huntington Beach, California, and he went to Servite High School in Anaheim.
He threw for 7,273 yards and 83 touchdowns there. Both are school records.
MaxPreps ranked him the eighth best high school quarterback in the country.
Now look at who offered him a scholarship.
Arizona. California. Colorado State. Fresno State. Hawaii. Idaho State. New Mexico. Utah State.
Two of those were Power Five programs. He is 5 foot 10, and that was the whole list.
He picked Arizona.
He sat as a freshman. His first career touchdown pass went to Tetairoa McMillan, who had been his high school teammate.
Then in Week 4 of the next season the starter, Jayden de Laura, got hurt.
Fifita came in and won the game at Stanford. By the time de Laura was healthy, the job was gone.
He threw 25 touchdowns and six interceptions that year and was named the Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year. Against Arizona State he threw for 527 yards and five touchdowns, which is still the most in a game in Arizona history.
Then the coach who recruited him left for Washington.
The next season Arizona went 4 and 8 and Fifita threw 12 interceptions.
That is the moment almost everybody leaves.
Here is what he says about it.
"They've been loyal to me, they've trusted me, so I've been loyal to them."
The year after that Arizona won nine games and he threw 29 touchdowns and made first team All-Big 12.
On September 19 against Northern Illinois he completed 31 of 34 passes for 325 yards and four touchdowns.
One of those completions went seven yards to Isaiah Mizell and made him the leading passer in the history of the school, past Nick Foles.
Mizell said he wanted to make the moment special because Fifita is his brother.
Then Saturday at West Virginia. Sixteen of 23 for 341 yards and three touchdowns, including one that went 72 yards. Arizona won 52 to 31.
Pro Football Focus graded that game a 93.1, the best of any quarterback in the Power Four.
Away from the field he feeds people in Tucson who do not have anywhere to eat, and he coaches kids in flag football. His house is where the team goes. His younger brother Dash is a freshman linebacker there.
Here is what his head coach Brent Brennan says.
"Noah Fifita is the best story in college football."
Everybody leaves now.
He has thrown for more yards than anybody in the history of his school, and he did all of it in one uniform.
ZonaAloha retweeted
Arizona continues to look like the College Football Playoff team nobody is talking about 👀
