ZoneWatch

⚠️ AWA NOTICE: A Significant Storm Pattern Is Developing Across the Pacific West Coast | Mid-November Through Late November 2026 Read the FULL BREAKDOWN and details below: alphaweatheranalysis.com/new… Stay tuned for more details and info as we get closer.

Good Morning, Thursday November 5th, 2026 at approximately 10:10am PT. Discussion: A series of Pacific fronts brings rain and gusts of 40 to 50 mph to Washington’s coast and areas north of Everett tonight through Friday, with another round of strong winds Saturday evening also reaching coastal northwestern Oregon, so secure loose outdoor items ahead of time. Santa Ana winds strengthen across Southern California Friday and Saturday, producing gusts of 25 to 40 mph through exposed passes and mountain slopes and increasing fire danger to locally critical levels around Los Angeles and Ventura counties. High tides could flood vulnerable shorelines around San Francisco, San Pablo and Monterey Bays through Saturday, while exposed nearby beaches face breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet and unexpectedly large surges of water, with coastal flooding concerns also developing along Orange and San Diego counties Friday. North winds gusting near 40 mph Friday through Saturday will build waves of 2 to 3 feet on Lakes Mohave and Havasu, making conditions dangerous for small boats and paddlers. Despite mostly dry weather across Arizona, water released from dams keeps portions of the Salt and Gila rivers hazardous through the weekend, so stay out of flooded crossings and avoid recreation along affected waterways. Stay tuned for some major releases today from ZoneWatch & also more updates including a public article by tonight.

Good Morning, Wednesday November 4th, 2026 at approximately 7:45am PT. Discussion: A stronger system Thursday night into Friday with heavier rain, gusty winds and hazardous surf potential, especially along Washington’s coast and north of Everett. Dense fog could slow this morning’s commute between Albany and Eugene, while pockets of freezing fog could reduce visibility and create slick spots in Nevada valleys tonight and Thursday night. Arizona’s flood danger continues despite mostly dry weather, with dam releases keeping flows high along the Salt and Gila rivers through Friday and lingering flooding across some southeastern waterways, so avoid flooded crossings and stay out of swollen rivers. High tides bring minor flooding around San Francisco, San Pablo and Monterey Bays through Friday, while incoming swell adds sneaker waves, strong rip currents and surf of 12 to 16 feet along nearby Pacific beaches beginning Thursday. North winds could gust 30 to 40 mph along the Colorado River Valley Friday, building waves near 3 feet on Lakes Mohave and Havasu and creating dangerous conditions for small boats and paddlers. Southern California, slight warm up but nothing in terms of impact just yet… Longer term impacts, risk and forecast is coming up today on AWA services. Stay tuned. We also at ZoneWatch have a surprise as well coming sometime today with details (snow lovers will like this one).

Good Morning, Tuesday November 3rd, 2026 at approximately 9:12am PT. Discussion: A Pacific low moving into Northern California brings wet roads around the Bay Area this morning, followed by a chance of afternoon thunderstorms mainly over coastal waters near the North Bay, where isolated waterspouts could develop before activity winds down tonight. Arizona stays dry, but continued runoff and dam releases keep portions of the Salt, Verde and Gila river systems dangerous through Thursday, with flooding lingering in other areas as well, so take this seriously and avoid flooded crossings and swollen waterways. Southern California’s mountains and deserts could see gusts of 35 to 40 mph this evening, followed by increasing offshore winds Thursday near the Ventura and Los Angeles county line that could make exposed roads difficult for commercial vehicles. Fog may limit visibility across western Oregon and Washington Wednesday morning before another front brings rain Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, coastal Washington gusts of 25 to 35 mph and light snow in the higher Olympic and Cascade Mountains. Bay Area beaches remain dangerous today as unexpectedly large waves and strong rip currents affect the coast, while rising tides could cause minor coastal flooding Wednesday and Thursday. Several updates are coming today through AWA Insiders and Essentials, breaking down the upcoming pattern in more detail. A public article will also be available, with a broader overview, and you can follow conditions for your location in the @ZoneWatchWX app (major updates coming up!). I want to say enjoy the slight warmup, but honestly, I’m so over this heat. I’m missing temperatures in the 40s and 50s at this point.

Good Morning, Thursday October 29th, 2026 at approximately 7:51 AM PT. Discussion: A strengthening Pacific trough and powerful subtropical jet stream will pull moisture into Arizona tonight, bringing thunderstorms on Friday, including a few that could become strong to severe. Localized rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, flash flooding, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible, especially around Phoenix, the Mogollon Rim foothills, and portions of southeastern Arizona. Showers will also spread into northwestern Arizona and parts of southern Nevada on Friday, while southern Utah could face a flash flooding risk if the disturbance tracks far enough west. Arizona should experience a relative break on Saturday before rain returns late that night. Rain becomes more likely across Southern California Saturday afternoon and night, potentially affecting Halloween activities, although the exact timing and rainfall amounts around Los Angeles still need to be determined. Overall, the heaviest precipitation is expected to focus across Arizona, with a more detailed update coming as the forecast becomes clearer. However, the positioning of this system could significantly increase the thunderstorm risk across Southern California, including a few potentially strong storms. While widespread rainfall totals may be lower than in Arizona, thunderstorms across Southern California could produce locally higher amounts than models indicate, along with additional impacts from lightning, gusty winds, and intense downpours. Meanwhile, unusually high tides will continue threatening vulnerable California shorelines today and Friday, with significant coastal flooding possible around San Diego and Orange County late this morning. Moderate coastal flooding is also possible along portions of the Bay Area through Saturday. Across the Pacific Northwest, showers and light mountain snow will continue through Friday, with limited additional accumulation expected. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across western Oregon today, while frost could affect sensitive plants in interior valleys Saturday morning. Stay tuned for more updates. A full article is coming soon, along with another update or two exclusively for AWA Insiders. For our @ZoneWatchWX users, be sure to take advantage of the latest features, including highly accurate Smart Storm Tracks powered by machine learning and artificial intelligence, along with advanced storm contours that help identify potential hail, storm rotation, tornado signatures, and damaging winds. And what's next? SNOW For all the skiing and snowboarding enthusiasts out there, we have something special coming your way. Stay tuned.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ROUND 2: Good Morning, Thursday October 22nd, 2026 at approximately 9:55am PT. Discussion: The same potent Pacific low responsible for Wednesday’s severe storms, including a potentially violent tornado, widespread large hail, and damaging winds, is moving across the Southwest and Great Basin today. This will shift the strongest activity eastward before much drier air arrives Friday. Southern California will continue to experience showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight and into Friday morning, with localized street flooding, debris flows near vulnerable burn scars, damaging wind gusts, and a brief tornado still possible around Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Meanwhile, mountain slopes facing the deserts farther southeast could experience wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph today. Arizona’s greatest severe weather threat shifts from northern Maricopa County this morning into eastern Arizona this afternoon, where rotating thunderstorms could produce hail measuring 1 to 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Additional heavy downpours will increase flash flooding concerns, especially over already saturated ground and within normally dry washes. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will keep southern and central Utah at risk for flash flooding through early Friday, while eastern Nevada could experience severe thunderstorms today before colder air lowers snow levels to between 6,000 and 7,000 feet early Friday. Rain will spread into eastern Washington and northern Idaho this afternoon through early Friday, followed by wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, blowing dust, and increased fire danger across portions of central Washington. Meanwhile, temperatures dropping near freezing could threaten sensitive plants across western Oregon on Friday and Saturday mornings, while western Washington remains mostly dry. Stay tuned for many more updates as our severe weather coverage continues across the region. Additional alerts, notices, and Insider updates are on the way, including a detailed Halloween forecast breakdown. A comprehensive storm report covering the severe weather, significant impacts, and notable events will also be released once this system moves out of the forecast region.

UPDATE: 7:15PM MST: An impressive display of intense supercellular thunderstorms continue across central and eastern Arizona this evening, with several powerful cells producing frequent lightning, large hail and damaging winds. Most notably, a well defined hook echo is visible near Forest Lakes, AZ, raising serious concerns for strong storm rotation and the potential for a tornado. The main areas of concern include Payson, Forest Lakes, Heber, Show Low, Pinetop Lakeside and surrounding communities, where storms could produce hail exceeding 1.5 inches, damaging winds over 60 mph and localized flooding. This event is far from over, with additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms possible through tonight and into Thursday. Stay weather aware as conditions can deteriorate rapidly, especially near the strongest storm cores. I keep checking that im not looking at IL...No, its AZ.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON GOING: Good Morning, Wednesday October 21st, 2026 at approximately 9am PT. Multiple cells are already under severe thunderstorm warnings, and a previously tornado warned cell was moving toward Flagstaff, AZ (now under a severe thunderstorm warning). These are dangerous storms that can rapidly intensify and change, with all types of severe weather hazards possible! Discussion: A powerful Pacific low pulling in deep tropical moisture moves inland through Thursday, bringing the greatest rain and thunderstorm impacts to California, Arizona, Nevada and Utah. Rain expands across Central and Southern California today, with the heaviest periods around Los Angeles and San Diego tonight and thunderstorms continuing Thursday, bringing risks of localized flooding, debris flows near vulnerable burn scars and damaging gusts, along with isolated coastal waterspouts or brief tornadoes, particularly near Big Sur and portions of the Southern California coast. Arizona faces multiple rounds of dangerous thunderstorms through Thursday, with the strongest rotating storms favored along the Mogollon Rim and north and east of Phoenix late this afternoon and evening before shifting east Thursday, potentially producing winds of 60 to 70 mph, hail larger than 2 inches and a few tornadoes. Repeated downpours could trigger significant flash flooding across northern, central and eastern Arizona tonight into Thursday, while heavy rain and strong thunderstorms spreading into southern and central Utah make washes and slot canyons especially dangerous. Nevada’s showers and thunderstorms peak Thursday, with a few severe storms possible in eastern areas, while rain reaches far eastern Washington and northern Idaho Thursday into Friday and widespread frost threatens parts of western Oregon Friday morning. A very busy stretch ahead. Take these threats seriously, never drive through flooded roads, and stay out of washes and slot canyons in affected areas. Stay tuned for rapid updates through AWA Insiders and additional coverage. Image/Video from @ZoneWatchWX including the ML storm tracks.

What a nice classic storm cell, with our storm tracks in action showing it strengthening over New Mexico the timing of impact etc. This will also be great for tracking storms across the Southwest this week as well.

A more westward track is expected as I have been saying with the next NHC update likely being more westward. With model guidance coming into better agreement and looking back at Rachel’s historical track, Tropical Storm Rachel will likely impact either San Diego, CA directly or the Southern California Bight. AWA members, you’ll receive your full risk assessment within the next hour.

Once again a Category 5 Hurricane Polo has restrengthened into a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph and a minimum pressure near 925 mb. Polo seriously has remained an exceptionally intense and well-organized eastern Pacific hurricane, with extremely cold cloud tops wrapping around its inner core and a structure that has continued to evolve through eyewall changes. Check out this incredible look at the vertical structure from @ZoneWatchWX , organization, and intensity of one of the strongest hurricanes of the 2026 Eastern Pacific season. An update for what type of impact is anticipated for the southwest region will come tomorrow with the live updates. Stay tuned. #Polo #hurricane #elnino

@AriWeather is this zoomed in enough?