I was arrested, interviewed under caution for 2 hours by two sturdy lllllllesbians and my case sent to the @CPSUK for the crime of… ‘causing offence to myself’.

Let's start something! We clearly need to define "AI" for what it truly is. #ArtificialIgnorance

Almost every closed station in the dataset is one that inconveniently shows no long-term warming trend, only cyclicity, despite attempts to manufacture one via adjustments. And most were closed in the early 2010s, right after climategate. Colour me increasingly sceptical.

Lol @ the people claiming that this is a “strongly negative PDO” 😂😂😂

Wow! Latest ECMWF 12z is going all out in the stratosphere, now forecasting an actual Stratospheric Warming event with a wind reversal, making it an official SSW event. It will likely not remain at this, as this would be an unprecedented event, and the model trend map shows quite a spread between the last runs. But even seeing this suggested at this time is really insane. All the maps are available in my Polar Vortex hub (link in the comments) @judah47 I have seen you noticed the 12z ECM, but did you know it also has a proper reversal? 😁

NOAA’s file does not just fill holes, which can be expected when dealing with large datasets. It also overwrites real readings at nearly every station. The replacements lean cool in the past and warm in the present, the same shape as NOAA’s adjustments overall, and in 2025 that includes a full year of readings at 29 working stations, Key West’s airport among them. To be clear, the estimates are not only for closed stations. NOAA’s file also replaces readings that stations actually recorded. This happens when NOAA’s adjustment procedure decides that a stretch of a station’s record is too short to correct reliably, as NOAA explained in 2014; it discards the readings and puts estimates in their place. From 1895 through 2025 there are 93,047 such months, at 1,217 of the 1,218 stations. The top chart answers a simple question: when NOAA replaces a recorded daytime high with an estimate, is the estimate warmer or cooler than the reading it replaced? Each bar is a decade. A bar below zero (blue) means the estimates in that decade were on average cooler than the readings; a bar above zero (orange) means warmer. The comparison is made after NOAA’s “reading-time correction” has already been applied to the readings, so the one adjustment NOAA has documented and tested is not the cause of what you see. The result is that in every decade from the 1890s through the 2000s the estimates are cooler than the readings, by roughly half a degree to a full degree Fahrenheit before 1980 and by two or three tenths of a degree from the 1980s through the 2000s. In the 2010s and the 2020s the estimates are warmer than the readings, by 0.06 and 0.33 degree. The bottom chart shows how many recorded months were replaced in each decade: between 5,000 and 9,000 in every decade through the 2000s, fewer recently. However, for 2025 the replaced readings include every single month at 29 stations that reported a full year of data, among them Key West International Airport, Baton Rouge Metro Airport, Astoria Airport, and the National Weather Service office in Blacksburg, Virginia. The number of such stations has risen from 6 in 2015 to 29 in 2025.

EL NIÑO is set to bring a major, significant, and possibly record setting winter of weather to Florida and the Gulf Coast this season. The impacts probably start being felt regularly in the pattern the last 2 weeks of November. Euro ensemble mean with a strong signal of suppressed storm track, higher than typical rain totals across Florida and the I-10 corridor. I expect somewhere in Florida to challenge a record for wettest winter on record. Whom that ends up being, no idea. But the table is set for that potential between Nov. 2026 and Mar. 2027. The window of EL NIÑO impact in the weather pattern likely starts to settle in around a month from now.

Look at this visible satellite loop of Storm #Austen as it swirls toward England and northwest France! This storm will produce damaging wind gusts of 60-70+mph, heavy rain, and rough seas.

We're headed for an El Niño that is — quite literally — off the charts. WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update shows that El Niño is forecast to exceed the scale of global monitoring charts. Its impacts will be felt well into 2027. Read the full update: bit.ly/4z2MhwQ