_SlumpPlug on ig
Joined February 2021
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SlumpPlug retweeted
Before you buy anything this week, ask yourself:
•Is it above or below the 200 WMA?
•Is the earnings result already priced into the chart?
•Is the count in Wave 3 or Wave 5?
•How much cash would you have left if it fell another 20%?
•Would you still want it if nobody on here was talking about it?
• Are you able to handle it turning negative?
Can't answer all 6?
Then you're not ready yet....
SlumpPlug retweeted
Suddenly, you're 5 years in to trading and have nothing to show for it.
You've tried it ALL. Daytrading. Options. Crypto. Prop firms. Perps. Futures. + whatever else people are doing.
Some of it worked for awhile. You got excited. But then the same old habits bit you in the butt. Causing you to blow up.
You don't want to stop trading (or maybe you can't). You love markets and want to figure this thing out. But don't know where to start...or what to stick with.
On top of that, you're no longer the kid is his mid 20s with no mortgage, no kids, no big bills, and no responsibilities.
It's a new chapter. Maybe you're married now. Have a big boy job. Nice apartment. Or house even. Kids soon. Whatever it may be.
So the "pressure" to make money is higher. As a man, you carry this huge weight to provide for your fam so you can't afford (financially & mentally) to keep doing stupid stuff in the markets.
That persona is probably all too familiar for many of you guys (me included at one point).
So what's the next step? What do you do?
Well I can only tell you what I did, step by step.
1) take the "money pressure" off.
- have a stable income, some savings, business, or 9-5 job...whatever, just something to relieve to pressure to make money immediately
Ok great, so now you have a couple grand coming in every month. This is essential. You don't HAVE to make $$$ right away.
2) once the money pressure is off, choose your strategy, vehicle, & risk framework.
- which i confidently believe is swing trading common stock, using a trailing stoploss, riding strong stocks/themes/environments.
I will die on this hill. Swing "trading" should effectively mirror buy & hold investing if done right via good stock picking, a good entry, & trailing stop.
Your goal isn't to be a trader, it's to have a exponential return on invested capital. That's it.
3) Doing less button-clicking
- part of why I started writing here on X or posting videos was to take me away from getting roped into trading more.
find something (either related to trading or not) that takes your eyes off the charts...or prevents you from watching every candle
the market IS the lever...not your skills, ai tradingbot, button clicking, indicators, or research even.
time in the market AND timing the market
4) finding a partner, mentor, friend
- might be a controversial one, but somebody needs to hold you accountable. As an active trader, there is just too much noise our ears daily to go at it solo.
we need another human-being to act as a hybrid of our risk manager, coach, hype man, bully, friend, and more...all in one
i've had the pleasure of meeting some great ones here on x and also working with a few folks myself now.
5) let trading decisions be made FOR you
- remove yourself from the octagon of decision-making
Limit orders at support levels, trailing stop losses, predetermined position sizes, rules.
you might be good at finding great stocks, but you're probably bad at leaving great stocks alone. I was.
Anyways. this post got a little bit long but THIS is what active investing should look like.
I look at every single block of shares that I buy as its own entity. So if I buy 1000 shares of NVDA, that ledger line is its own entity & I treat it as a fully independent trade. It has its own trailing stop loss attached to it. I will do a longer post on this psychology.
My entire philosophy can be boiled down to: Do the work to get in before the move. Enter the trade. Place your trailing stop. Leave it alone, your job is done.
That's how your equity curve gets magnetized to the stratosphere.
SlumpPlug retweeted
I can assure you
The moment you start using peptides
And not just the GLP peptides for people who don’t know when to stop eating when they are full
But the other peptides that help improve your health
You will never want to stop taking them
They are life changing
$HIMS
SlumpPlug retweeted
Chris Camillo explains why $DASH is a “secondary trade” behind the GTA 6 release because more people will be ordering food from home while playing GTA 6
“DoorDash is going to do phenomenal… for 60 days, do you know how much DoorDash is going to be ordered in America?”
SlumpPlug retweeted
One of the most important disciplines in investing is constantly updating the best argument against your own position.
Not dismissing it. Not looking for reasons it’s wrong. Actually understanding it well enough to decide how much conviction your own thesis deserves.
$AMZN has badly lagged the market and many other AI names recently, and I think the counter thesis has evolved.
The biggest new threat is agentic commerce. Meta’s Muse and other AI agents could increasingly control product discovery and purchasing, potentially weakening Amazon’s retail and advertising moat.
That’s real. But I think it plays out slowly, Amazon will adapt through its own agents, including Project Moonraker, or partnerships that are seeking access into and monetization from the world’s largest ecommerce platform, and in an agent-first world the upside to AWS, Trainium, Graviton and Amazon’s broader AI infrastructure business could ultimately more than offset the advertising dollars at risk.
Then there’s Anthropic. A recent barrage of negative headlines around slowing growth and Meta/Microsoft reducing Claude usage has spilled over into $AMZN sentiment.
Again, worth taking seriously. But much of that narrative looks incomplete. Anthropic’s revenue growth remains extraordinary, its IPO appears very much alive, and its massive long term commitment to AWS remains intact. We are still early and one can make a strong argument that AWS has more to gain from an open source first AI world than it would lose from Anthropic’s and OAI’s relative weakness, if it even plays out that way.
And now sharply higher diesel prices create another near term headwind to Amazon’s shipping margins. That’s real too. But either fuel prices normalize or as with past cost inflation Amazon eventually passes much of the higher cost through while continuing to drive down fulfillment costs.
I don’t need the counter thesis to be wrong to own $AMZN.
I just need the bull thesis to be more right.
SlumpPlug retweeted
Consistently profitable traders only.
What's the One habit that changed everything for you ?
SlumpPlug retweeted
There is one vital piece of information you NEED to know about the S&P 500
It never goes too far from its 200 WMA....considered the fair value line
It will ALWAYS retest this MA
And right now it is a -38% decline to this retest this MA.
It will happen, it has never not happened
Something to bare in mind.
But if you only bought the S&P 500 at or below its 200 WMA, you beat everyone....and it wouldn't even be close
$SPY $SPX
SlumpPlug retweeted
THE WEEKEND PROCESS BEHIND MY $100K MONTHS
Here’s SECRET. Don’t lose it.
I don’t start with individual stocks.
I start with sector ETFs.
That’s how names like $MU, $RKLB, $NVDA, $HOOD and others end up on my radar.
They tell me where money is flowing before I ever start hunting for individual names.
Here are some of the areas I scan:
TECH / AI
$SMH - Semiconductors
$DRAM - Memory
$IGV - Software
$CIBR - Cybersecurity
$DTCR - Data Centers
POWER / INDUSTRIALS
$GRID - Grid / Electrical
$XLI - Industrials
$NLR - Nuclear
CRYPTO / FINTECH
$ARKF - Fintech / Crypto
$WGMI - Digital Infrastructure
SPACE / QUANTUM / ROBOTICS
$ARKX - Space
$QTUM - Quantum
$BOTZ - Robotics
REAL ASSETS
$GLD - Gold
$SLV - Silver
$COPX - Copper
$REMX - Critical Minerals
ECONOMY / RISK
$IWM - Small Caps
$XLF - Financials
$XLE - Energy
$JETS - Airlines
HEALTH
$XBI - Biotech
$XLV - Healthcare
Then I ask:
What is making new highs?
What is holding its 8/21 trend?
What is outperforming $SPY and $QQQ?
Where is relative strength appearing?
What is breaking out of a base?
THEN I open the strongest ETFs and look for the stocks leading them.
Find the sector. Find the leader. Wait for the setup.
Do this work before Monday.
SlumpPlug retweeted
Most traders make market analysis way more complicated than it needs to be.
One of the first things I do is zoom out
The weekly chart will usually tell you more about the environment than staring at every intraday move
My process is simple:
Start with the weekly chart
I want to know:
• Is price above or below the 50-week EMA?
• Is that EMA rising, falling, or flattening?
• Is the market trending or building a base?
• Where are the major highs and lows of that consolidation?
• Are we making higher lows or beginning to lose structure?
Then I wait.
That last part is important.
I’m not trying to predict when the next major market move begins.
I want price to show me.
If the market is above the weekly 50 EMA, holding higher lows, and beginning to break through the downtrend of a consolidation, conditions are improving.
If price repeatedly tests the 50-week EMA, starts losing important lows, and can’t reclaim them, I become more defensive.
Think of it as a risk dial, not an on/off switch.
Strong structure → more willing to take risk.
Weakening structure → reduce risk.
Confirmed breakout from consolidation → conditions can become much more favorable.
The goal isn’t to call every top and bottom.
The goal is to recognize when the market is giving you an environment worth participating in.
-Zoom out.
-Identify the trend
-Mark the base
-Wait for confirmation
-Then react
Price will tell you when it’s time.
SlumpPlug retweeted
You could spend your Sunday going through hundreds of charts. I already did 🫠
Here are the names, levels, and setups that actually stood out for next week.
The indices are holding up, but underneath the surface this remains an extremely selective market.
QQQ is breaking higher. Semiconductors are starting to regain strength. Bitcoin is consolidating, while rising yields remain one of the biggest risks beneath the surface.
$SPCX is one of my closest watches.
$MU is setting up beneath a key breakout.
$DDOG is sitting beneath a major resistance level.
Here’s the watchlist and recording:
$SPX: The weekly chart remains constructive. We’re still in an established uptrend followed by consolidation, and most attempts to push lower have been bought. Unless sellers finally take control, I continue to favor resolution in the direction of the larger trend. Above 7800 could eventually put 8000 in play, but yields, breadth and geopolitical risk remain important warnings underneath the surface.
$QQQ: Had a strong week and has broken out of the daily pennant while also pushing above the prior June all-time high. Friday saw a small retracement, but the breakout remains intact. As long as buyers defend it, QQQ continues to look positioned for another move higher.
$IWM: Still the weakest of the major indices. Small caps remain extremely sensitive to rates, and Friday’s sharp recovery in yields works directly against this group. Until yields begin pulling back, there isn’t much here that interests me on the long side.
base:0xe4b20925d9e9a62f1e492e15a81dc0de62804dd4: Still consolidating after the recent move higher. Thursday’s attempt toward 87K was sold aggressively, leaving a short-term double top. Buyers need to reclaim roughly 87K before I’d expect the next meaningful leg higher.
$COIN: Attempted to break out of its recent structure Friday before reversing hard and closing near the lows. If Bitcoin struggles, this could become a clean downside candidate.
$AAPL: Difficult week overall, but Friday finished much better. 335 is the first area that could make this interesting intraday, while 340 is the more meaningful trigger. Above 340 opens 345, and a break there could lead to a larger continuation move.
$META: Coming off a difficult week after showing strength the week before. The 9-day moving average rejected price, so I’d rather wait for a reclaim of 740 before getting more interested. If weakness continues, 700 and then 686 become the important support areas.
$AMZN: Trying to establish a bottom just above the 200-day moving average. There are signs of a potential double bottom, but we haven’t seen the actual thrust higher yet. Worth monitoring, but there are cleaner setups elsewhere for now.
$TSLA: Became much more interesting Friday after delivery numbers beat estimates and buyers responded aggressively. Above 375 I’m looking for 385–386. A clean break through that zone could finally open a move toward 400.
$NVDA: Made another all-time high Friday but couldn’t sustain it. I want to see a quick reclaim of the prior high near 236.50 followed by a break through Friday’s high. If that happens, another continuation move into fresh highs becomes much more likely.
$NFLX: Continues to deteriorate after the previous move into the 83–85 area. The higher-time-frame trend remains lower and there are simply better opportunities elsewhere right now.
$MSFT: Friday produced a clean inside day after Thursday’s failed push higher. I want 500 to continue holding, followed by a recovery of 520. Above 520, the price action should become much cleaner.
$AMD: Continues showing relative strength even when other semiconductors get sold. Friday’s gap higher failed to fully hold, but AMD is still outperforming many names in the group and remains worth watching.
$AAOI: Friday’s move was notable. The chart is attempting to establish a higher low and turn higher again. I’m watching 117 first, followed by 120 for a potentially larger continuation move.
$SPCX: One of my favorite setups this week. Friday finally produced the breakout, clearing both 150 and 155 before closing near the highs. The key now is 160–161, around the first IPO-day close. Above there I’d look for a squeeze toward 176–177.
$ARM: Continues struggling to get through 320. Until that resistance clears, I’d rather stay patient and wait for a cleaner setup.
$AXTI: Showing signs of life alongside AAOI and the broader photonics group. Friday’s move was constructive and could mark the beginning of renewed momentum if the theme continues.
$NBIS: 250 remains a very clear resistance level and has rejected price multiple times. If buyers can finally push through it, this could turn into a much more aggressive squeeze setup.
$SMTC: Has pushed back toward all-time highs but continues struggling with the psychological 200 level. A clean break of 200 is the setup I’m waiting for.
$SMCI: Constructive move, but 45 continues acting as resistance. That remains the next meaningful level before expecting a larger breakout.
$BE: One of my favorites this week. Buyers continue stepping in and Friday’s close was strong. Above 300 is where this could become much more interesting, with 320 and then 330 becoming upside targets.
$DELL: Finally starting to look better again. Friday was strong, and the weekly high around 568 is the level I’m watching. A breakout could restart the move toward the highs.
$LITE: One of the better-looking photonics setups. Strength is beginning to return across the group, and 1100 is the key breakout level I’m watching.
$TSM: One of my favorite semiconductor charts. Trading very close to all-time highs and continuing to show excellent relative strength. Watching roughly 475–480 for continuation and potentially a larger breakout.
$PANW: Finally managed to close above 400 after failing there repeatedly. That is a meaningful technical change. Now I want to see 400 hold as support and allow the breakout to build.
$MRVL: Rejected around 280 but remains constructive as long as roughly 270 holds. If buyers defend that area, this can remain on the semiconductor continuation list.
$CRWD: Continues to be one of the software leaders whenever the group catches a bid. I’m watching 275 as the next meaningful breakout level.
$HOOD: Friday’s reversal was ugly. Watching the Friday low around 112 as the next downside trigger if sellers continue pressing.
$SKHY: One of the memory names I really like. It had a strong recovery week and is beginning to rebuild momentum. Holding 195 keeps the structure intact, while 200 becomes both the all-time-high area and the obvious squeeze level.
$MU: One of my favorite setups this week. Earnings initially brought selling, but buyers recovered the move and the chart remains constructive. I’m watching 1108 closely. A clean break could trigger another meaningful leg higher.
$SNDK: Friday produced an inside day after the earnings volatility. A recovery of the range could create a long setup, while 1775 is the clearer upside trigger.
$WDC: Nothing compelling here right now. There are cleaner memory setups in MU and SKHY.
$ZETA: Quietly improving and beginning to approach new highs. Worth keeping on the radar if software strength continues.
$COST: Continues holding up nicely after the post-earnings reversal. If we get rotation back into this area of the market, COST could have a strong week. I’m watching 930.
$MRNA: Failed to sustain its breakout through 200. Needs to reclaim that level before I become interested again.
$DDOG: One of my favorite software watches. 278–282 has become a very significant resistance zone on both the daily and weekly charts. A clean break above 282 could finally trigger the larger continuation move.
$SNOW: Quietly setting up beneath 350. Software has been selective, but this is one of the names worth monitoring if momentum broadens again.
$OKTA: Weekly structure continues to look strong and is one-time framing higher. Watching 216 for continuation.
$NET: Consolidating nicely after an exceptional run. A break through roughly 355 could restart momentum and put this back in play.
$HNGE: Printed a clean inside week. Watching 126 for a potential continuation move higher.
$LLY: Friday produced an ugly reversal. I’m watching 1140 for a potential downside continuation setup.
$PLTR: Getting closer again after several constructive weeks. 195–200 is the area I’m watching for a potential squeeze if buyers return.
$ALAB: Building what looks like a bull flag, although sellers continue stepping in on attempts higher. Watching 365–368. A clean break could open the 380s.
$NKE: Buyers stepped in after the earnings gap lower and produced a better reaction than the initial move suggested. Worth keeping on the radar to see whether that dip continues to get bought.
Overall theme:
The indices remain surprisingly resilient, but the market underneath continues to narrow.
QQQ is breaking higher while IWM remains weak as yields push higher. Semiconductors are beginning to show renewed strength, particularly in TSM, MU, SKHY, AMD and the photonics group.
Bitcoin continues holding up, but crypto-related stocks are becoming increasingly selective.
Macro remains the largest risk. Yields are accelerating, the dollar is strengthening, breadth remains poor, and geopolitical headlines continue creating sharp intraday reversals.
For now, I remain cautiously optimistic, but this is still a stock-picker’s market.
Favorites ❤️ this week: SPCX, BE, TSM, SKHY, MU, DDOG.
.sm
SlumpPlug retweeted
I am in the top 1% Bull on $TSLA
I used to buy, hold for a year, trim when it got extended then buy back.
Last few years? I changed my approach completely.
I buy. And I hold.
Been in this position for 5 years now. I still average up on it when I see the opportunity. My current average is $204.63.
Not a fancy round number. I don't care.
That's not how I think about it.
Tesla has paid me more than any other holding I've ever owned. So when I like a stock - I add to it. Simple as that.
This base is going to break.
Could take another year. Maybe more.
But when it does - $800 won't surprise me at all.
I trust Elon's vision more than I ever have. @elonmusk
SlumpPlug retweeted
HOW TO RETIRE EARLY FROM AI IN THE NEXT 3–5 YEARS
Keep this.
Most people will spend the next 3–5 years chasing what already moved.
Follow the money EARLY:
MONEY IS FLOWING INTO COMPUTE
AI Chips: $NVDA $AVGO
Memory / HBM: $MU $SKHY
Foundries: $ASML
EDA / Chip Design: $SNPS
Networking: $ANET $ALAB
Photonics: $LITE
Interconnects: $CIEN
↓
COMPUTE IS FORCING AN INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM
Data Centers: $IREN $CIFR
Cooling: $VRT
Servers: $DELL $SMCI
Storage: $PSTG
GPU Cloud: $CRWV $NBIS
Construction: $FIX
Digital Infrastructure: $EQIX
Cybersecurity: $CRWD
↓
INFRASTRUCTURE IS FORCING A POWER BOOM
Grid: $PWR
Electrical Equipment: $POWL
Power Producers: $VST
Gas / Turbines: $EQT
On-Site Power: $BE
Energy Storage: $EOSE
Nuclear: $OKLO
Uranium / Nuclear Fuel: $CCJ
↓
POWER REQUIRES RAW MATERIALS
Copper: $SCCO
Critical Minerals: $LAC
Rare Earths: $MP
↓
THEN AI EXPANDS INTO THE REAL WORLD
AI Applications: $PLTR
Robotics: $TSLA
Industrial Automation: $ROK
Autonomy: $GOOGL
Drones: $AVAV $RCAT
Defense: $KTOS
Space: $SPCX $RKLB
Quantum: $IONQ
AI Healthcare: $TEM
This is the entire AI buildout.
You need to position around what has to be built next.
SlumpPlug retweeted
Your Screen Saver
The sooner you understand how price action moves
The easier investing becomes for you.
Wave 1 - Initial Interest bouncing from a deep undervalued position.
Wave 2 - Early buyers and traders trim profits until Wave 2 confirms its higher low support level.
Wave 3 - The Masses enter, it is the most aggressive wave, people are now convinced of the assets potential and its growth trajectory.
Wave 4 - Shorter pull back compared to Wave 2, as this is small trims after an aggressive Wave 3 move.
Wave 5 - Traders jump in again and final adds, beginners and retail chase here, believing this will only keeping going higher and feel disappointed they missed the early run, parabolic moves are found in Wave 5.
Parabolic moves typically indicate the Top as euphoria kicks in, valuations become extended and unrealistic….an ABC pull back then follows.
The pattern is then repeated.
This is found on every chart that has ever existed because humans do not change, only their surroundings. $SPY $SPX
SlumpPlug retweeted
How do you tell the difference between a healthy pullback and the beginning of a reversal?
Pay attention to HOW price is pulling back....
A healthy pullback should be boring:
Price slowly and methodically drifts lower into key moving averages while volume continues to decline.
There’s no urgency from sellers
No aggressive downside candles
No major increase in volume
The stock is simply digesting the previous move and allowing the moving averages to catch back up to price
A reversal looks completely different:
-Price action becomes wild and aggressive.
-Downside candles start expanding
-Volume INCREASES as the stock sells off
-Key moving averages and previous support levels begin getting broken with force
That’s telling you selling pressure is increasing rather than drying up
This is why I always analyze price AND volume together....
Slow pullback + declining volume = constructive
Aggressive selling + increasing volume = warning sign
Don’t just look at the fact that a stock is pulling back
Pay attention to HOW it’s pulling back
The structure will more likely than not tell you exactly everything you need to know
SlumpPlug retweeted
If I could talk to myself when I first started trading, I’d say this:
You have way less time than you think.
Stop wasting months making the same mistakes you already know are mistakes.
Stop waiting to feel ready.
Stop looking for another strategy.
Stop blaming the market.
Stop saying you’ll get disciplined “next week.”
You already know what you need to work on:
-Your risk management
-Your execution
-Your patience
-Your discipline
-Your emotions
The traders who improve are the ones who actually confront their weaknesses instead of repeating them for years
Time moves fast
Take this seriously now, so you don’t look back wishing you started sooner.
SlumpPlug retweeted
$AMZN at $250 is the most obvious buy in the entire market.
AWS is the largest cloud provider in the world, and it’s adding more revenue in absolute dollars than any other hyperscaler.
AWS revenue grew 37% YoY in Q2, its fastest growth in 18 quarters.
BofA expects growth to accelerate to 40% YoY in Q3.
But here’s what makes AWS so powerful for $AMZN:
Cloud is a massive margin upgrade from Amazon’s core business.
That’s not true to nearly the same extent for $MSFT and $GOOGL, whose core businesses already operate at extremely high margins.
AWS already generates 58% of Amazon’s operating income.
As AWS grows faster than the rest of Amazon, more of $AMZN’s revenue comes from its highest-margin business.
Revenue is accelerating.
Margins are expanding.
Earnings will grow even faster.
$AMZN at $250 is a BUY.
