satyam retweeted
NOW:
Amazon blocked Meta’s Muse AI agent from shopping on its site. Shopify has now gone the other way.
Muse users can shop across Shopify stores and complete purchases through Shop Pay, giving Meta’s agent a major commerce route just after Amazon shut it out.
Shopping agents can bypass the retailer storefront itself, including the ads and discovery layer built around it.
Most people trading Polymarket read the same headlines as everyone else and do the math in their head. By the time they've worked out what it actually means for a market, the price has usually already moved.
🧵
🤖 Made with AI
150 traders used it. Together they walked away with over 1000% in gains on Polymarket.
We're building the next version now, moving past Polymarket into how this same information moves stocks, commodities, and broader financial markets.
satyam retweeted
I started with a small idea, kept expanding the thesis, and eventually had a blog that was too long for anyone to read.
So I turned it into an interactive reading experience instead.
Nikita says links aren’t penalized anymore. I’m still putting it in the next tweet.
satyam retweeted
BAR CHECK: Will Iran Announce MOU Termination by July 31?
The headline: "Iran suspends MOU."
The rule: pays out only on "a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process."
What was actually said: "We have also suspended all our commitments," per Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's Deputy FM (Jul 18).
Verdict: ❌Fail.
📊 Sozu Model: 19¢ | Market range: 14.5¢ to 22.5¢ | Resolves Aug 1
Next: Three statements this week climbed the ladder (suspend → no plans → never under any circumstances) and still landed short.
Watch for the one word missing from all of them: terminate.
satyam retweeted
🚨 SOZU SIGNAL 🚨
Yesterday the US said its blockade of Iran resumes July 14.
Iran already charges up to $2M a ship to cross Hormuz, but informally, through the IRGC.
Under blockade pressure, that needs to become law.
So we raised "Iran formalizes Hormuz fees by Aug 31" to 70¢. The book was at 52¢. We left the near dates alone.
Today Iran's parliament introduced a bill to manage the Strait.
Three steps down: blockade lands, legal cover needed, bill introduced.
Two to go: passage or a fee announcement by July 18, then collection before Aug 31.
Introduced is not passed. Nothing has resolved.
Aug 31: book says 52¢. We say 70¢.
satyam retweeted
I've a prediction market tool for the World Cup!
I'm talking about @Sozuposting, basically it notifies you wen there might be an information edge before the market reacts
what does it mean? for example:
> a possible penalty is being checked by the VAR
> there is mismatched price on Polymarket
> Sozu AI detects momentum
beta is now live, you can grab $5 for sign up with my ref code (only first 1000 users)
France is going to the final imo, what's your take?
🤝 Paid partnership
satyam retweeted
The market is trading Maine Senate like the delegates are already chosen. They aren't.
Maine Democrats just confirmed open county caucuses, not an insider-run selection. That's the exact turnout game Troy Jackson has been building for since the day he entered, and Polymarket moved him from 50¢ to 67¢ on it.
But July 25 is a multi-round elimination vote, not a plurality. June's governor primary already showed the risk: the candidate leading round one lost once the votes redistributed.
Sozu has Jackson favored at 55%, not crowned. The real trade isn't his number. It's whether Bellows still owns the second-choice coalition that decided the last race like this one.
having long term thesis for a forecasting agent is very necessary
these thesis will have its dependent markets and assigned weights to create an index out of them
anyone can just type "i believe in this and this", forecasting agent will either already believe in this thesis...
satyam retweeted
oman's🇴🇲 role in this war has gone through four different phases in under a month, and tonight it flipped again.
mid-june: oman was just a location. a tanker gets hit near its coast, ships start rerouting through its waters as an alternate lane. no warships, no diplomacy. our model had oman pinned near zero.
then a us official said oman had been taken off the mediation track entirely, by name. switzerland and qatar became the venues everyone watched. "next meeting in oman" traded near dead.
late june, oman quietly walks back in. iran and oman hold the first joint hormuz committee meeting in muscat, technical, not diplomatic. days later the us navy starts escorting tankers through that same omani lane.
wednesday: trump declares the ceasefire over at the nato summit, calls iran's negotiators names, the us hits 90 targets. thursday goes quiet. friday: trump posts that iran asked to keep talking, "we have agreed to do so," but the ceasefire stays dead. hours later, a senior us official tells a reporter iran talks are expected to resume tomorrow, in oman.
the market moved on it. 11 to 18 in minutes, now sitting at 13.
sozu didn't move, and here's why. this exact sequence, a quiet day, a diplomatic opening, renewed strikes, has already happened at least twice this month in this same conflict. iran's own state media is already narrowing saturday's visit to "the situation in the strait," not talks with washington. iran's chief negotiator is talking "all-out defense," not de-escalation.
market's at 13 on this resolving as a real us-iran round. sozu's at 7. not because a meeting isn't happening tomorrow, it clearly is, but because this specific shape of good news has broken before it stuck, more than once, in the same month.
we're not ruling out the meeting in oman, we just don't think its about de-escalation (violating polymarket rules)
