
ALT I have written many times that IMO the main catalyst behind the massive M&A deal volume in the BioTech and Pharma ecosystem is the patent cliff scenario. The “patent cliff” or IP Lost of Exclusivity (LOE) scenario is predicted to cause most of the big Pharma companies more than $330B (!) in combined revenue loss, thus creating an immense pressure on both their commercial pipelines as well as on their future revenue streams. Here is a an excellent FT chart which shows just how much big Pharma companies have become commercially dependent on a specific blockbuster drug - Sanofi׳s Dupixent in this case, which upon its patent expiration Sanofi’s revenue stream will be badly impacted as it generated €16B (!) in sales during 2025 - which is more than Sanofi’s sales of its other top 10 drugs combined! This means that the closer we will be to the point of massive patent loss, the more we can expect a growing volume of M&A deals of both BioTech companies and assets by big Pharma companies

ALT According to this excellent chart by Stifel 2026 is on track to become the second most active year in BioTech M&A history! The 2026 annualised M&A volume in the BioTech and Pharma ecosystem is currently $241B - second only to 2019 ($328B) and ahead of 2014 and 2025. Another interesting aspect is that while 2019 was driven mainly by two mega mergers of $50B or more (AbbVie / Allergan and BMS / Celgene), in 2026 so far no deal has exceeded $15B. It seems that instead of initiating mega deals, Big Pharma companies - led by Eli Lilly, are replenishing their pipelines via $1–10B acquisitions ahead of an unprecedented $300B patent cliff.































