Not financial advice.
Beirut / Toronto
Joined July 2021
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I need a @Polymarket for when $ASTS will go bankrupt
AST SpaceMobile to Build Own 20-Ton Rocket to Deploy BlueBird Satellites in Low Earth Orbit Using Miranda Engines from Firefly Aerospace.
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds #Blacklift
Alex retweeted
It might be time to double down once again on MDA Space.
The revenue beat is massive: $498M versus estimates of $445M. The highest analyst estimate was only $463M.
$MDA keeps delivering. The multiple is far too low, and earnings keep compounding.
If you have not looked at $MDA space yet you might miss one of the simplest stories of the next few years.
At these levels it’s a no brainer for me.
$MDA with another beat and raise 🚀
$MDA 𝐌𝐃𝐀 𝐒𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐐𝟑 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔: 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐉𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐬 𝟐𝟐%, 𝐎𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞, 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐑𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐝
⠀
📊 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 (𝐂𝐀𝐃)
• Revenue: C$498.1M (+21.5% YoY)
• Adjusted EPS: C$0.37 (+0.7% YoY)
• Adjusted Net Income: C$60.4M (+26.1% YoY)
• Adjusted EBITDA: C$96.0M (+15.9% YoY)
• Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 19.3% vs. 20.2% YoY (-90 bps)
• Gross Profit: C$125.9M (+16.6% YoY)
• Gross Margin: 25.3% vs. 26.4% YoY
• Operating Cash Flow: C$106.2M vs. C$32.8M YoY
• Free Cash Flow: C$61.6M vs. -C$36.7M YoY
• Order Bookings: C$444.2M (+155% YoY)
• Backlog: C$3.95B (-10.1% YoY)
⠀
🎯 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 (𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔, 𝐑𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐝)
• Revenue: C$1.90B–C$1.95B (prior C$1.80B–C$1.90B)
• Adjusted EBITDA: C$355M–C$375M (prior C$330M–C$370M)
• Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 18%–20% (reaffirmed)
• CapEx: C$225M–C$275M (reaffirmed)
• Free Cash Flow: Neutral to negative (reaffirmed)
⠀
📌 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬
• Satellite Systems revenue increased 26.4% to C$358.3M, driven by Telesat Lightspeed
• Geointelligence revenue grew 24.8% to C$59.9M, while Robotics & Space Operations increased 2.0% to C$79.9M
• Backlog declined C$443.7M YoY as revenue conversion exceeded new bookings
• Q3 book-to-bill reached 0.89x despite order bookings more than doubling YoY
• Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 90 bps due to program mix and higher SG&A investments
• Nine-month revenue increased 28.8% to C$1.46B, with adjusted EBITDA up 24.2% to C$282.9M
• Net cash reached C$1.33B, with total liquidity of C$2.9B, supported by equity and debt financing
• Successfully deployed initial Globalstar satellites and began operations at its high-volume satellite manufacturing facility
• Selected to participate in Europe's IRIS² satellite program, expanding its global constellation opportunities
• Preparing to launch the MDA CHORUS Earth observation constellation by year-end
• Pending acquisitions of Blue Canyon Technologies and CLS expected to expand satellite manufacturing and geointelligence capabilities
• Management highlighted a C$40B opportunity pipeline supporting future contract opportunities
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💬 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲
“The MDA Space team delivered another quarter of strong revenue and profitability growth.” — CEO Mike Greenley
$MDA
🇨🇦 🤝 🇪🇺
Speculation:
Two European angles I believe $MDA is poised to participate in and I think we could see at least one contract by EOY:
1. SATCOMBW4: Germany's 10 billion euro sovereign military LEO program.
2. Eutelsat/IRIS2: either additional OneWeb bridge work, some IRIS2 work, or the newly filed NEXT constellation.
For some context, EU has strict domestic manufacturing and control rules for space programs making it historically difficult for non-Europeans to directly participate as primes.
But for $MDA
The breadcrumbs keep stacking:
- $MDA already incumbent OneWeb antenna supplier through Airbus.
- Laurent Jaffart (European Space Agency Director) visiting the newly inaugurated Montreal facility end of March.
- Canada is the first non-European country admitted to the EU's 150 billion euro SAFE procurement framework.
- Canada committed a record $664.6 million CAD to European Space Agency (ESA) programs with "fair industrial-return access".
-Canada and ESA signed an agreement enabling the exchange of classified information.
I'll also throw in the fact that the submarine deal was awarded to TKMS instead of Hanwha.
Also checking lobbying records, $MDA engaged Canada's ambassador to Germany in April. Add MDA UK, Aurora, SatixFy, Skymaker, MIDNIGHT, etc. and it becomes difficult to paint a picture where $MDA is left out of the European LEO buildout.
$LMT about to lose a 2 billion pound deal due to Musk and Trump
EXCLUSIVE: Elon Musk came to Donald Trump with the plan to throttle Ukraine’s use of SpaceX’s Starshield satellite internet network, sources have told the Telegraph.
The tech billionaire made the proposal during the US President’s row with Volodymyr Zelensky over strikes on Russian oil refineries.
‘The reality is that they were both in it,’ a senior source said of Musk’s and Trump’s involvement.
But after a night of carnage in Kyiv caused by the slowdown, Musk was alarmed about the possibility of adverse consumer reaction in Europe.
The SpaceX boss then proceeded to tweet, blaming the US administration, and ultimately, President Trump for authorising the slowdown.
‘He tweeted out that he was innocent and that it was the US administration that did it,’ the source said.
Unbelievable. This will have huge ramifications.
EXCLUSIVE: Elon Musk came to Donald Trump with the plan to throttle Ukraine’s use of SpaceX’s Starshield satellite internet network, sources have told the Telegraph.
The tech billionaire made the proposal during the US President’s row with Volodymyr Zelensky over strikes on Russian oil refineries.
‘The reality is that they were both in it,’ a senior source said of Musk’s and Trump’s involvement.
But after a night of carnage in Kyiv caused by the slowdown, Musk was alarmed about the possibility of adverse consumer reaction in Europe.
The SpaceX boss then proceeded to tweet, blaming the US administration, and ultimately, President Trump for authorising the slowdown.
‘He tweeted out that he was innocent and that it was the US administration that did it,’ the source said.
Been seeing lots of speculation on who's set to massively benefit from Europe's renewed push into space.
Aside from the obvious European winners like ETL, SES, AIR, OHB, etc - $MDA is by far the clearest "foreign" beneficiary.
Look at what's been coming together over the past few years:
- October 2023: $MDA acquires SatixFy's UK payload business.
- November 2023: $MDA announces major UK expansion (doubling its workforce + expanding multiple UK campuses)
- June 2025: ESA Director visits $MDA 's Montreal facility.
- June 2025: Canada + EU sign Security and Defence Partnership, explicitly covering space security.
- July 2025: $MDA Space UK selected to lead SkyPhi (ESA/UK Space Agency funded mission to develop regenerative 5G D2D).
- November 2025: Canada commits over 400 million euros to ESA programs, including €80.5 million for satellite communications + €116.5 million for Earth observation.
Note: Canadian firms should receive ESA contracts in proportion to Canada's contributions.
- February 2026: Canada signs the SAFE agreement, becoming the first non-European country admitted to the EU's €150 billion defence procurement program.
- March 2026: More ESA Director visits to $MDA 's Montreal facility where $MDA was publicly described as a trusted partner.
- April 2026: Canada + ESA sign agreement enabling the exchange of classified information.
- April 2026: $MDA meets with Vera Alexander, Canada's ambassador to Germany.
- April 2026: Airbus selects $MDA for another 880 Ka-band and 440 Ku-band antennas for Eutelsat OneWeb's expansion.
- June 2026: Canada + France sign classified information agreement, opening opportunities in defence, space, intelligence, advanced communications for dual-use technologies.
- July 2026: $MDA announces acquisition of ~70% of France's CLS with French space agency CNES retaining almost 30%.
- July 2026: Germany's OHB awards $MDA Space UK an initial contract to provide autonomous lunar-landing sensors for ESA's Argonaut mission.
- August 2026: Mike Greenley says $MDA is now "feeling a pull into Europe" for its digital satellites, SAR, and space robotics.
- September 2026: $MDA participates in Macron's space economy roundtable in Paris alongside other European space leaders.
- September 2026: $MDA unveils AURORA BLACK (perfect timing for Europe's push towards sovereign military constellations).
- September 2026: Carney and Macron direct their space agencies, defence ministries, and industries to develop and share space infrastructure.
- September 2026: Norway's Kongsberg signs MOU with $MDA covering joint space and defence projects.
- October 2026: Czech defence giant CSG acquires 9.5% of $MDA, becoming its largest shareholder with plans to co-invest in European manufacturing, acquisitions, along with introducing $MDA to CSG's defence customers. At the same time, PPF Group (another major Czech group) already owns over 10 million shares of $MDA, making them MDA's second largest shareholder (as of last disclosure).
$MDA AURORA Black could not have been unveiled at a better time
In an interconnected, digital world, there is perhaps no greater threat to a country’s security and sovereignty than losing communications capabilities. With growing geopolitical shifts, governments and militaries need secure, resilient infrastructure that will withstand growing space-based threats. Introducing MDA AURORA™ BLACK, our defence solution to maintain the advantage in a contested environment.
Learn more: brnw.ch/21x5Awl
Alex retweeted
Maybe this turns out to be a nothing schnitzel, but my (very biased) view is that this could be a genuine unlock for $MDA.TO.
1. CSG's bread and butter is long-range artillery and command vehicles. MDA Chorus could provide space-based targeting/jamming-resistant communication. Rheinmetall already has this exact solution.
2. European joint venture with CSG will qualify as EU-led. MDA said in March 2025 that it could be the prime on EU defence satellites (IRIS) only through creative partnerships.
3. Ukraine is 27% of CSG's revenue. The satellite images mostly come from ICEYE.
4. AI-generated idea: Airbus-Thales-Leonardo merger could result in spin outs. Perfect acquisition target for CSG+MDA.
🚨 $MDA 🇪🇺 x 🇨🇦
Czechoslovak Group (CSG), one of Europe’s largest defence and industrial conglomerates just acquired a 9.5% equity stake in $MDA , making them their largest shareholder!
CSG explicitly outlines plans to:
- Co-invest in satellite manufacturing and assembly facilities in Europe.
- Partner with $MDA on strategic acquisitions.
- Open its defence customer network to $MDA
- Accelerate $MDA ‘s international expansion.
HUGE NEWS FOR MDA’s EXPANSION INTO EUROPE 🚀
Link: globenewswire.com/news-relea…
Alex retweeted
Our next level is space. 🚀 We have acquired shares resulting in a 9.5% equity stake in @MDA_space – a leading space technology company with 55+ years of heritage and 450+ missions behind it. A key part of our long-term strategy in space.
Learn more ➡️ csg.com/en/news/csg-enters-t…
🚨 $MDA 🇪🇺 x 🇨🇦
Czechoslovak Group (CSG), one of Europe’s largest defence and industrial conglomerates just acquired a 9.5% equity stake in $MDA , making them their largest shareholder!
CSG explicitly outlines plans to:
- Co-invest in satellite manufacturing and assembly facilities in Europe.
- Partner with $MDA on strategic acquisitions.
- Open its defence customer network to $MDA
- Accelerate $MDA ‘s international expansion.
HUGE NEWS FOR MDA’s EXPANSION INTO EUROPE 🚀
Link: globenewswire.com/news-relea…
Reminder: $MDA 's April antenna order only covered 440 satellites. Airbus announced the other 229 in September. Expecting a follow-on antenna order for those satellites in Q4 or early Q1.
Eutelsat has started shipping the first satellites from its 440-satellite replenishment order, with launches now moving toward 2027.
And it has already ordered another 229.
These satellites will replace aging spacecraft and expand OneWeb’s LEO network, providing low-latency broadband connectivity for enterprise, government, mobility and remote users.
That’s 669 new OneWeb satellites coming.
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
$ASTS investors are getting way ahead of what was actually filed. The original German filing was disclosed almost a year ago.
This is a MODIFICATION not a new ITU filing for a 344 constellation. It corrects service area mappings and adds frequency assignments to the existing filing.
D-BLUEBIRD was originally submitted in October 2025. $ASTS + Vodafone PRed it in November. ITU published the filing in July and the amendments a few days ago.
$MDA
Always appreciate some great investigative skills by Tran 🔍
Continuing on the $MDA x Equatys theory, here's what happened since I last spoke about Equatys:
- $VSAT and Space42 officially announced an agreement to establish Equatys at WSBW in Paris on September 14.
- Each is committing an initial $400 million USD, with another $200 million coming from Space42 OR another company through a future equity round.
- They are actively looking for more equity partners.
- Space42 described the initial constellation as "in the hundreds" with launches starting in 2028 and service targeted for 2029 (pretty ambitious given today's launch constraints).
- Full system is designed to scale to 2,800 satellites.
- $VSAT is the initial prime technology contractor.
- $VSAT expects its initial satellite contract to be announced within weeks, pending remaining approvals to formally establish Equatys.
- Still waiting on the bus manufacturer.
- Industry rumours had $RKLB as the bus manufacturer before its announced $IRDM deal. Name still floating around today as a potential partner.
- My (own) theory: $MDA is a real contender based on various breadcrumbs (discussed in previous tweets).
---------------------------------------------------
Some additional breadcrumbs for why I think $MDA could be the bus prime:
- As Tran noticed, Equatys own marketing material shows a rendering very close to a one wing version of MDA's AURORA.
- A similar rendering was also used by $MDA when it disclosed its SpaceRAN constellation to ISED on July 13.
- Space42, $VSAT, $MDA and Terrestar (the Canadian S-band spectrum holder) are all MSSA members.
- MSSA recently updated its Reference Architecture 2.0, adding guidance on regenerative satellite payloads with interoperability and support for 5G NR and NB-IoT within the same satellite infrastructure.
- Equatys has laid out three ways to participate: contribute spectrum access, lease capacity, or build your own constellation and lease spectrum through Equatys. Space42 also explicitly mentioned partners joining with their own satellites and spectrum (sounds very interesting in the context of SpaceRAN).
As a reminder: SpaceRAN is $MDA 's planned 170-satellite constellation, with 96 initially prioritizing Canadian coverage and another 74 for global coverage (Canadian service target in 2029).
$MDA also has its spectrum application with ISED, but its requested S-band/AWS-4 frequencies overlap with Terrestar's Canadian licence.
On May 13, ISED imposed a moratorium on new commercial MSS and related ATC licensing. Comments closed on July 13 with industry urging ISED to lift the moratorium.
Exciting few weeks ahead to see how this plays out..
🚨 $MDA
MDA Space unveils full CHORUS product portfolio ahead of planned late-2026 launch.
Under one portfolio:
- CHORUS COMMAND --> Choose targets + task satellites
- CHORUS COMMAND PRO --> Direct downlink + near real-time processing via local ground stations
- CHORUS INTELLIGENCE --> Turn satellite data into actionable insights
Powered by the CHORUS constellation and anchored by RADARSAT-2 already in orbit 🚀
Today, at World Space Business Week, MDA Space unveiled our end-to-end MDA CHORUS™ Earth observation product portfolio.
This new suite lets customers customize, manage and control their geointelligence workflow.
Learn more: brnw.ch/21x5IEA