🇫🇮 🇮🇳 Avik 🇹🇼 🇮🇱🇧🇻

#Bangladesh may be headed for a major showdown in the next few weeks. The economy is on a downhill journey. Law and order have never been good after Hasina's exit. BNP-sponsored goons have made life difficult. Killings and extortion have become the new normal. The situation deteriorated dramatically in the last 2-3 weeks, with crude-bomb explosions, deaths and damage to property becoming commonplace. While all the blame is being placed on the banned #AwamiLeague, local information suggests strong involvement by Jamaat/Islamists. The grassroots Awami League is highly energised. Its members have been subjected to one-sided oppression for the last two and a half years. They cannot take any more and are ready to hit back. #SheikhHasina may not have adequate Western support on her side, largely because these powers made strong inroads in her absence to turn Bangladesh into a vassal state. From extracting contracts for port handling to wresting control of oil acreages, selling aircraft and supplying expensive American wheat or soyabeans, the West has treated Bangladesh as its new colony. Western powers have a vested interest in keeping Hasina out to prevent social resistance to these one-sided deals. The West, particularly the UK, is maintaining close contacts with Jamaat. However, it is questionable whether they can prevent the withdrawal of the ban on the Awami League any longer. The optics and public pulse are in Hasina's favour. India is the most crucial player in this game, and there are early indications that Delhi is slowly raising the stakes.