College basketball analytics
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ALT Bar chart headlined "326th to 17th in two years," showing Marquette's D1 rank in opponent turnover rate by season, with the Shaka Smart era shaded from 2021-22. Ranks before Smart: 2016 122nd, 2017 179th, 2018 184th, 2019 292nd, 2020 344th, 2021 326th. Under Smart: 2022 167th, 2023 17th, 2024 18th, 2025 18th, 2026 50th. Opponent turnover rates run from 13.4% in 2020 to 19.6% in 2023. Three tiles below: 2025-26 BQR defense 43rd, still forcing turnovers during a 12-20 season; 2025-26 offense 125th, tied for its worst since 2015-16; 2026-27 projection 41st, 5th in the Big East, with 60% of minutes back, the most in the league. Footer: basketballquant.com with the Basketball Quant logo.
ALT Title: "1.40 points per possession for South Florida on the first possession after a timeout, the best in the top 100." Chart: ATO PPP scored (x) vs allowed (y), South Florida at the far right. Best ATO offense: South Florida 1.40, Duke 1.37, Wisconsin 1.36, Georgetown 1.34, Wichita St. 1.31. Best ATO net: Duke +0.485, South Florida +0.481, Belmont +0.441, Wichita St. +0.433, Gonzaga +0.380. Footnote: ATO = first possession after either team's timeout or a media timeout; top-100 average 1.11 scored, 1.02 allowed.
ALT Light-background grid of 18 small line charts with the Big Ten logo. Title: "Average win probability at every minute of Big Ten conference games." Subtitle: Michigan was the only Big Ten team above 50% at every minute of conference play and went 19-1; win probability comes from the score and time left. Each panel shows one team's average win probability from tip-off to the end of regulation, with tick marks at the first quarter, half, third quarter and end, against a 50 percent line. Panel labels show halftime win probability to share of games won in regulation: Michigan 68% to 95%, Illinois 71% to 82%, Nebraska 57% to 75%, Michigan State 52% to 70%, Purdue 60% to 63%, Wisconsin 57% to 70%, UCLA 58% to 65%, Ohio State 55% to 58%, Iowa 54% to 53%, Indiana 53% to 40%, Washington 40% to 35%, Minnesota 54% to 45%, Northwestern 42% to 28%, USC 45% to 33%, Rutgers 36% to 28%, Oregon 42% to 28%, Maryland 33% to 20%, Penn State 25% to 15%. basketballquant.com watermark.
ALT Light-background grid of 18 small line charts with the ACC logo. Title: "Average win probability at every minute of ACC games." Subtitle: Duke passed 70% in the 19th minute and stayed above 94% for the last eight; Virginia was the only other ACC team above 70% during games. Each panel shows one team's average win probability with a solid 50 percent line and a dashed halftime line. Halftime to share of games won in regulation: Duke 76% to 94%, Virginia 65% to 83%, Louisville 65% to 61%, Miami 52% to 72%, Clemson 56% to 69%, North Carolina 53% to 67%, NC State 55% to 56%, SMU 50% to 44%, Virginia Tech 50% to 42%, Florida St. 51% to 56%, Stanford 46% to 50%, California 50% to 53%, Wake Forest 37% to 42%, Syracuse 49% to 36%, Pitt 38% to 22%, Notre Dame 38% to 22%, Boston College 40% to 19%, Georgia Tech 31% to 11%. basketballquant.com watermark.
ALT Light-background grid of 16 small line charts with the Big 12 logo. Title: "Average win probability at every minute of Big 12 conference games." Subtitle: Arizona and Texas Tech both passed 70% before halftime; Arizona climbed to 93% with a minute left, while Texas Tech stalled near 70%. Each panel shows one team's average win probability with a solid 50 percent line and a dashed halftime line. Halftime to share of games won in regulation: Arizona 71% to 92%, Houston 65% to 78%, Iowa St. 58% to 67%, Texas Tech 71% to 64%, Kansas 58% to 64%, Cincinnati 61% to 50%, TCU 42% to 61%, BYU 41% to 47%, West Virginia 39% to 53%, UCF 46% to 53%, Baylor 51% to 33%, Arizona St. 54% to 39%, Colorado 44% to 42%, Oklahoma St. 40% to 31%, Utah 29% to 11%, Kansas St. 29% to 17%. basketballquant.com watermark.
ALT Light-background grid of 16 small line charts with the SEC logo. Title: "Average win probability at every minute of SEC games." Subtitle: Florida topped 70% by the 13th minute and stayed there; Tennessee sat at 68% with four minutes left but finished 11-7. Each panel shows one team's average win probability from tip-off to the end of regulation, with a solid 50 percent line, a dashed halftime line and ticks at the first quarter, half, third quarter and end. Halftime to share of games won in regulation: Florida 75% to 89%, Arkansas 60% to 72%, Alabama 54% to 69%, Tennessee 61% to 56%, Vanderbilt 58% to 58%, Texas A&M 54% to 61%, Texas 50% to 56%, Kentucky 41% to 56%, Georgia 57% to 58%, Missouri 47% to 56%, Auburn 44% to 42%, Oklahoma 52% to 39%, Ole Miss 37% to 25%, LSU 35% to 14%, Mississippi State 40% to 25%, South Carolina 35% to 25%. basketballquant.com watermark.
ALT A dark chart titled "Every team Bryan Hodgson has taken over jumped at least 129 spots in his first season." Three panels. Arkansas St.: 292nd in 2022-23 before him, 150th in 2023-24 (20-17), 82nd in 2024-25 (25-11), labelled plus 142 spots in year one. South Florida: 179th in 2024-25 before him, 50th in 2025-26 (25-9), plus 129 spots. Providence, outlined in green: 75th in 2025-26 before him, projected 49th in 2026-27, plus 26 spots projected. Below, the portal haul: large headshots with the old school's logo and a projected 2026-27 BQR rating tile on a 0 to 100 scale. Miles Byrd from San Diego St. (10.4 PPG, 4.0% steal rate, 6.0% block rate), 98.3; Malik Mack from Georgetown (13.6 PPG, 4.1 APG), 89.0; Arrinten Page from Northwestern (10.2 PPG, 6.1% block rate), 98.0; Devin Vanterpool from FAU (15.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG), 91.5; Ryan Sabol from Buffalo (18.8 PPG, 3.3 APG), 84.8. Watermark basketballquant.com with the Basketball Quant logo.
