$IREN
On Oct 19 @danroberts0101 tweet about their funding model gave zero indication that GPU backed debt has dried up for them. He instead explicitly described the ongoing model as:
- customer prepayments of 45β55% of GPU capex on recent 3-year contracts,
- GPU-secured financing (6-9%) on all or nearly all of the rest
- whether the rate is 6% (IG), 9% (non-IG) or something even higher it "barely moves the economics" because of 2 year payback
- Everything else (about 1/3 of total cost) is funded with IRENβs own cash without debt
On Oct 22, the Nebius CEO said that, "From last week, probably some of the capital sources are temporarily closed, like the asset-backed or debt market."
This suggests Nebius and Iren might be in different situations insofar as access to GPU-backed credit.
A clarifying update today from @danroberts0101 on their ongoing access to capital (temporary or otherwise) would be noteworthy.
A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN.
First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.
Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs.
That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right.
The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics.
There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway.
Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.
FORTRESS (Federal Operations for Resilience, Troop Resources, Energy, Supply, and Survivability) consists of five βpillarsβ: energy independence; supply chain and defense industrial base resilience; a strategic defense reserve; installation hardening and cyber resilience; and resilience in space and spectrum.
The first priority is energy resilience. "Those solutions can include investments in microgrids, battery backup storage."
FORTRESS: The Pentagon is preparing every major U.S. military base to survive 90 days without outside support β no civilian power grid, no global supply chains, no outside fuel or water.
The initiative, revealed in documents reviewed by Fox News Digital, envisions portable nuclear reactors, massive battery storage, and microgrids that can disconnect installations from civilian electricity entirely. Strategic reserves of munitions, fuel, critical minerals, and medical supplies would be stockpiled based on wartime consumption rates. Civilian factories are being pre-identified to shift to defense production during a crisis.
Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell put it bluntly: "Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, water, logistics, assembly lines and just basic military command structures."
Full story here foxnews.com/politics/inside-β¦
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FORTRESS: The Pentagon is preparing every major U.S. military base to survive 90 days without outside support β no civilian power grid, no global supply chains, no outside fuel or water.
The initiative, revealed in documents reviewed by Fox News Digital, envisions portable nuclear reactors, massive battery storage, and microgrids that can disconnect installations from civilian electricity entirely. Strategic reserves of munitions, fuel, critical minerals, and medical supplies would be stockpiled based on wartime consumption rates. Civilian factories are being pre-identified to shift to defense production during a crisis.
Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell put it bluntly: "Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, water, logistics, assembly lines and just basic military command structures."
Full story here foxnews.com/politics/inside-β¦
$EOSE
Stifel toured the factory last month and gave us an update from management. Line 2 in Thornhill in September had a 9 second cycle time for battery module production, versus 10, and had other efficiencies from single-piece flow, like the footprint down 40%, travel distance 0.29 vs 1.16.
If the containerization could just keep up with the purported battery module cycle time, one line could produce 3 GWh/yr with just a 70% yield x utilization. Even so, Line 2 is still discussed as having a 2 GWh/yr nameplate, even with 4 shifts to fill out 24x7 production, and weirdly, the same as what they describe as Line 1 nameplate. That corresponds to a 50% yield x utilization, which is manufacturing flunkee territory.
Eos has never explained to us in simple terms why 2 GWh/yr is a ceiling, and why improved cycle times even matter if it doesn't expand the capacity beyond 2 GWh/yr.
3 lines operating at 9 second cycle time and just a still pathetic 65% yield x utilization (each with 2.7 GWh/yr) would fulfill Project AMAZE's 8 GWh/yr production capacity.
So much incredible promise. So many questions. So few answers.
Why does Line 2 even need 4 shifts to achieve that? Is there really that much downtime baked in? My theory is that these are not wholly technical issues. Rather, they're rates limited by backlog conversion and customer readiness. But, that's just a theory. Why Eos has never sat us down and explained this to us like adults over the last 2 years, when we had so many questions about this very issue, remains one of the biggest unsolved mysteries.
$EOSE is currently priced for bankruptcy, or Cerberus screwing everyone (including employees) and taking the company private, or the market trying to force OG capitulation. None of that will happen, if Alessandro's cost out plan executes on plan.
Stifel visited the factory, talked to management, and came up with a $9 price target based on 14x their 2028E EBITDA projections.
So did Roth, who came up with a much more conservative $4.50 target, based on 5.5x on FY27 sales.
The current SP is awfully silly, if the company doesn't fail.
It's unbelievably hard to stack shares and options when the SP is $1.7 and wicks down to $1.08. Especially if you didn't take significant profits at the previous highs and have the cash to do it. I am not suggesting you do. This is a personal decision, based on where you think things are actually headed. Nobody can predict the future. Don't listen to those who claim they know it with certainty. If they did, they wouldn't be sharing it with you.
This is a critical time for the company. The sales team needs to respond to customers in hours or days, not weeks. They need to constantly call their pipeline customers and get them to yes. On the execution side, pull out all the stops to meet guidance and the cost out plan to positive Adjusted Gross Margin exiting Q4. IR needs to put the big guns on IR discussions, not incompetent people interfacing with some of the biggest investors from the previous convertibles. This is the company's time to shine or go home. This is really serious.
$EOSE
Met another legendary OG today.
We had a 3 hour convo over an extended lunch and shared secrets. The 3 hours passed quickly.
I love this community (the ones who don't hate me). I wouldn't trade this for anything.
Met my 5th fellow $EOSE investor IRL this week in Palo Alto for lunch.
Everyone in this community I've met face to face so far are A+ individuals. Thoroughly enjoyed all my talks with you all over coffee, lunches and dinners, and sharing old war stories, experiences and life in general. None of the talks were awkward, because we have so much to talk about.
It's interesting to me that, despite coming from different and disparate backgrounds, and from all around the country and the world, we all kind of see things the same way, when we're talking about things and those old war stories.
We are a miniscule percentage of the world population that share a special bond. There is some risk in putting yourself out there, but even so, I'd recommend it. Dinner for 4, 6 or beyond would be a blast. If you're in the area, hit me up.
I'd be interested in meeting Topher in real life sometime. At least one person has.
I'd bet he is a lot more genteel and demure in person than online.
$EOSE
Opinion:
- Indensity will have much lower COGS than the cubes.
Some facts I'm willing to share with you:
- The current plan is for Indensity production to launch in Q1.
- There is a backlog of orders for Indensity.
- If you want to order Indensity today and are willing to put down a chunk of change (like 25%) to secure your position, you still wouldn't get it for another year.
- I've seen extremely detailed engineering drawings for Indensity projects.
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SHORT POSITIONING OUTPACE LONGS 5:1 OVER THE PAST MONTH, 99 PERCENTILE β GOLDMAN PRIME DESK
$EOSE
The company doesn't have a going concern now. They used to. The shorts are trying to terrify you. They have, by my count, over $280m in unrestricted cash, and that will last for several months if the margin expansion goes on plan. They also have a $100m revolving line of credit from Cerberus, if Cerberus is that magnanimous again.
That said, Eos does have to execute. The current PA isn't giving the company many other opportunities to raise capital before becoming profitable.
If you can actually get to positive Adjusted Gross Margin exiting Q4 without going back to the dilution piggy bank, you will have earned a lot of investor respect.
Eos management, Eos employees: you must understand what a critical time this is. It's existential for your for employment and your equity going forward. You need to actually accomplish this objective, and not just talk about it and make excuses after the fact. Sleep on the factory floor if you have to. Now is your time to shine.
Replying to @Browpeak
Agreed. Unrestricted cash will be positive for several months if they execute the margin expansion plan, and Eos also has access to the $100m revolver if Cerberus agrees. But they canβt stall forever..
The company have been given every policy tailwind available and investor capital you donβt deserve. This is your time to shine or go home. Put the big guns on investor calls. Relentlessly expand margins with a sense of urgency. Make cuts elsewhere as necessary. Sleep on the factory floor if you have to.
My feed today was filled with so many random guys from Canada, Indonesia, Algeria and elsewhere telling me various stocks are headed for zero and supported with wildly boorish arguments. Iβm not sure the bottom is in, but weβre pretty close.
Buy bargains and protect your capital till the midterms.
Yes! Needed this today. π
One of the most undervalued companies if you can get past their (past?) shadiness.
$SMCI PRELIMINARY Q1 EARNINGS
β’ Revenue $19.1B vs Est. $15.2B
β’ Gross Margin 12% vs. Est. 11%
Autonomous Manufacturing
Introducing SKY-001, the first Engineering World Model.
On CAD and BIM tasks, it beats GPT-6 Astra and every frontier model we tested:
-> 51-125x faster
- > 150-210x cheaper
-> Higher IOU than all frontier models
SKY-001 lets you dream a physical object before you build it.
18 months of work. Built by the team out of Maluuba's deep learning lab (acq. by @MSRResearch).
The first βAI General Engineerβ will be the backbone for Autonomous Manufacturing.
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π¨ Lilly just made another deal that could quietly matter A LOT for the future of obesity treatment.
$LLY is partnering with METiS TechBio in a deal worth up to $1.1 BILLION to develop AI-designed lipid nanoparticles capable of delivering therapies to specific tissues.
This isnβt an obesity-specific deal. But think bigger than another GLP-1.
If Lilly can eventually use this technology to deliver RNA, gene-editing tools or other therapeutic payloads directly into metabolic tissues, we could be talking about drugs designed to alter obesity biology much closer to the source, potentially with very different dosing and durability than todayβs weekly injections.
The obesity market is rapidly becoming much bigger than βwho has the best GLP-1.β
Iβm hopeful for a future where we get to the root causes of metabolic dysfunction and disease. This feels like Lilly taking a step in that direction.
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Imagine getting shaken out instead of building positions right at the dawn of a new Industrial Revolution
Couldnβt be me!
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ai agents will change your life bro. you go from spending the entire work day on your phone and computer to spending every waking hour on your phone and computer. from managing a team of people to managing a bunch of agents who are always up to some bs. i havenβt slept in a week
















