I talk about batteries and clean energy a lot. Personally managing alpha to Valhalla. Internet rando. Not financial advice. 🌊
Silicon Valley
Joined August 2015
- Tweets64.4K
- Following2.1K
- Followers6.4K
- Likes43.8K
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
FORTRESS: The Pentagon is preparing every major U.S. military base to survive 90 days without outside support — no civilian power grid, no global supply chains, no outside fuel or water.
The initiative, revealed in documents reviewed by Fox News Digital, envisions portable nuclear reactors, massive battery storage, and microgrids that can disconnect installations from civilian electricity entirely. Strategic reserves of munitions, fuel, critical minerals, and medical supplies would be stockpiled based on wartime consumption rates. Civilian factories are being pre-identified to shift to defense production during a crisis.
Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell put it bluntly: "Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, water, logistics, assembly lines and just basic military command structures."
Full story here foxnews.com/politics/inside-…
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
SHORT POSITIONING OUTPACE LONGS 5:1 OVER THE PAST MONTH, 99 PERCENTILE — GOLDMAN PRIME DESK
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
🚨 Lilly just made another deal that could quietly matter A LOT for the future of obesity treatment.
$LLY is partnering with METiS TechBio in a deal worth up to $1.1 BILLION to develop AI-designed lipid nanoparticles capable of delivering therapies to specific tissues.
This isn’t an obesity-specific deal. But think bigger than another GLP-1.
If Lilly can eventually use this technology to deliver RNA, gene-editing tools or other therapeutic payloads directly into metabolic tissues, we could be talking about drugs designed to alter obesity biology much closer to the source, potentially with very different dosing and durability than today’s weekly injections.
The obesity market is rapidly becoming much bigger than “who has the best GLP-1.”
I’m hopeful for a future where we get to the root causes of metabolic dysfunction and disease. This feels like Lilly taking a step in that direction.
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
Imagine getting shaken out instead of building positions right at the dawn of a new Industrial Revolution
Couldn’t be me!
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
ai agents will change your life bro. you go from spending the entire work day on your phone and computer to spending every waking hour on your phone and computer. from managing a team of people to managing a bunch of agents who are always up to some bs. i haven’t slept in a week
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
I spend a lot of time in the private markets, and the recent madness around financing challenges for DCs and neoclouds is pure FUD.
Yes, there is a shortage of traditional lender capital, but many pristine balance sheets in Silicon Valley, elsewhere, and across sectors have strong incentives to participate and fill that void.
AI is a moment when everything as we knew it changes.
Every single business…
in every single sector…
across every P&L line item…
will be profoundly impacted…
by this new god-like capability.
Every balance sheet in the world will contribute to AI development over time, and AI datacenters benefit because of their lock on power.
So why the debt scare? The datacenter/neocloud market is being crowded out by public sector debt issuance. If you agree with my earlier proclamation about AI affecting everything, private sector enterprises will contribute their balance sheets to AI development in two ways:
1) As the next source of debt/equity financing for DC developers and compute providers (probably not voluntarily), thereby lowering DC cost of capital;
and/or
2) By consuming tokens far faster than supply, raising $/GPUhr for compute and lease rates for DCs.
Path 1, lowing the cost of capital, seems logical, but massive public sector debt woes will keep financing costs elevated for a long time, making path 2 equally a necessity:
Higher debt/equity rates are offset by higher DC lease rates.
Higher lease rates are offset by higher $/GPUhr or a larger share of those $/GPUhr economics.
In an expanding TAM, prices rise quickly as demand outstrips supply. If AI’s TAM is expanding, $/GPUhr should be high, right? Sort of. It’s a tale of two cities: the haves and the have-nots.
Most of today’s AI economics (outside GPU makers) go to the incumbents: hyperscalers. They have large, highly creditworthy balance sheets from decades of capital-light models, diverse and growing revenue, and strong margins, serving the world’s largest and successful enterprises. Hyperscalers are the most trusted providers of enterprise-grade/scale compute—an expertise built over decades.
Neoclouds, on the other hand, must build a balance sheet from scratch with creative financing, only to serve the hyperscalers’ leftover TAM, and all for a new commodity (compute tokens) whose value is not yet established.
No wonder neoclouds live on a razor’s edge: supernormal revenue growth fueled by equal or greater capex, hoping commodity prices soon make investors very happy. I call it “a dream business (to short).”
But wait—there’s more.
In a nascent, rapidly evolving commodity market, large pricing inefficiencies arise from swings between oversupply - think $CRWV in 2024–2025 bringing large compute online for what was only a handful of large buyers at the time - and undersupply when many buyers enter at (what feels like) all at once (Jevons’ paradox accelerating). Buyers and sellers are constantly left wonder g who holds the negotiating power in these conversations.
Things eventually stabilize, with better matching of land, power, talent, construction, procurement, GPUs, compute, financing, buyers/sellers of stabilized assets, used GPUs, and more.
Then $/GPUhr accelerates (as long as TAM grows). The most recent compute pricing charts suggest we might be there now.
If so, neoclouds are here to stay. The strong ones will grow fast; the weak get acquired and their old contracts renegotiated to much higher current rates.
A much healthier ecosystem overall.
But remember this:
Be it the hyperscalers of the neoclouds, the DC developer always makes bank!
$NUAI $IREN
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
Quoting from Anthropic's Michael Sellitto at the IMF Artificial Intelligence and Escalating Cyber Risks panel today. This is the first time Anthropic has given a projection for what percentage of frontier model training will be done by Claude in 2027. In March this number was 1%. By next year they are projecting 80-90%.
'Last year, about zero percent of our code was written by our model Claude. By August of that year, about 50% of the code inside the company was written by the model. That's because we released a new model in August of last year, and the engineers said, ‘Actually, this is the first time that Claude is writing code at my level.’ Anthropic only hires the best software engineers in the world, and it was at that point that Claude finally got to their level. In August we were at 50%. By the end of last year we were at 80–90% of the code in the company being written by the model.
What percentage of training the next-generation models is Claude leading today? This is following a similar step change. At the beginning of the year it was zero percent. In April it was 3%. In August, 26% of the process of building the next generation of models is being led by Claude. And we can project out - and we had a blog post about this not too long ago - that sometime next year it could be 80–90%.'
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
Blackwell Ultra (B300) GPU rental prices up 17 consecutive days to a new all-time high, according to Compute Desk's index of verified transactions from U.S. neoclouds.
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate-- then were told to lay off. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
The man arrested for planting a secret recording device at OpenAI's headquarters is a Venture Partner of a VC firm alongside the son of a senior Saudi intelligence official:
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
Last week bipartisan Senate negotiators unveiled the most ambitious and serious permitting reform proposal in recent memory.
It was a real pleasure to join @drvolts for a (thorough!) unpacking of what's in bill and why people should care.
open.spotify.com/episode/6t0…
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
$EOSE Indensity / Hyperscslers $AMZN??
The CTO Francis said Indensity was “co developed with our customers as we discuss their operating requirements and run load profiles in our Edison test facility”.
The timing fits. The Indensity whitepaper says it went from concept to design in under seven months. With the January 14, 2026 launch, that puts the concept around mid-2025, right when the data center agreements surfaced (Talen, MN8)
Mastrangelo says the first place is going to be an AI data center. “Then also standalone storage for grid firming. When you look at the agreement that we signed with Talen Energy last year, this would be a product that Talen could use near its traditional power generation to make those assets more efficient because you can co-locate it because, again, you don’t worry about the fire risk,” he explained.
washingtonexaminer.com/opini…
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
$AMD just launched Helion which is an AI agent rack with up to 33K EPYC cores backed by $DELL, $HPE, $CSCO and $SMCI as agents drive more demand for CPU compute beyond GPUs.
AMD is also building in a token router that sends each request to the most cost effective AI model.
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
What?!?!?! The US punishes India for importing fuel from Russia and threatens 100% tariffs on other countries that do so. And then Trump blithely announces the US is doing the same?
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
I support the death penalty. God himself told Noah that those who willfully take the life of another should be executed.
The United States Army prohibits public executions, but the Pentagon does not seem to care about following its own rules.
The pagan Roman Empire relished the public spectacle of executions. Growing up overseas in an Islamic country, some executions were public. Christendom, over time, recognized that justice is not to entertain or titillate. Justice is not meant to be a spectacle.
In Ezekiel 33:11, scripture reads, “As surely as I live, declares the Sovereign Lord, I take no pleasure in the death of the wicked, but rather that they turn from their ways and live.” Proverbs 24:17 echoes that for us. “Do not gloat when your enemy falls; when they stumble, do not let your heart rejoice.”
In Chapter 19 of De Spectaculis, Tertullian, one of the early post-apostolic church fathers, wrote about the public spectacle of executions in Rome. “It is good, no doubt, to have the guilty punished. Who but the criminal himself will deny that? And yet the innocent can find no pleasure in another's sufferings: he rather mourns that a brother has sinned so heinously as to need a punishment so dreadful,” he wrote.
In Confessions, Augustine wrote of his friend Alypius, who, dragged into the Coliseum to see gladiatorial fights, shut his eyes, though not his ears. Upon the cheers of slaughter, he opened his eyes to the blood, and the bloodlust corrupted him. Augustine’s writing has long taught Christians not to be entertained by the spectacle of violence, as watching it can damage you.
I support the death penalty. Public executions are soul-twisting and we should not go down that road.
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
oh no turns out $20B of OAI’s $70B ARR goes to partners.
so the entire AI revolution was just an accounting error. panic sell everything.
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
THIS IS ABSOLUTELY MIND-BLOWING:
Call-option volume on the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT, has exploded to a record 14.9 million contracts over the last month.
This is TRIPLE the levels seen in January.
This signals rapidly growing bullish positioning toward long-term Treasuries, as call options give traders exposure to a potential rise in bond prices if yields fall.
The bet comes after the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields spiked to 5.33% and 5.73%, their highest levels in 24 years.
Meanwhile, $TLT is down -8.5% so far in 2026 and fell -9.0% in Q3 alone.
Options traders are increasingly betting that the historic rise in yields is approaching its limit.
Risky bets on long-term Treasuries are skyrocketing.
Reasonably Approximating 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🔋 🅰️ retweeted
$TLT and chill looking pretty juicy, if you can time the bottom.
